Market Comments January
Wednesday 2nd January 2019 - UK power prices shadowed gas down on the 31st of Dec, while Continental power markets had their last day of trading on the 28th of Dec. Carbon had a strong run before Christmas but was unchanged during Christmas days. This morning Carbon is up and is close to testing previous highs. Gas is also up in the front, while oil and coal have opened the year on the bearish side as Chinese PM’s came out below expectations. Power is up across most contracts and countries.
Thursday 3rd January 2019 - UK power shadowed gas and Carbon up yesterday, while Continental power took a bearish input from low spot prices and weaker coal. This morning markets have opened on the bearish side. Forecasts are warmer and coal, gas Carbon and oil are all down from yesterdays close.
Friday 4th January 2019 - UK power shadowed gas and Carbon up yesterday, while Continental power took a bearish input from low spot prices and weaker coal. This morning markets have opened on the bearish side. Forecasts are warmer and coal, gas Carbon and oil are all down from yesterdays close.
Monday 7th January 2019 - Weather models were pointing towards a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event, a weather spectacle that led to the Beast from the East in March 2018, hitting towards the end of January which was ensuring that front month contracts were holding on to some risk, but this morning this seems to have disappeared with the chances of this reduced massively in the UK. Temperatures are set to remain at season al norm as minimum until the end of January.
Tuesday 8th January 2019 - Power prices took input from a surrounding bearish energy complex yesterday and corrected down. The price result of the daily European emissions auction disappointed and the emissions curve were immediately pushed significantly lower. It should be noted that after a substantial downward correction oil prices have now stopped falling and this is likely to support gas prices and therefore also power prices further out on the curve.
Wednesday 9th January 2019 - Power prices moved up yesterday, touching higher with feedstocks like natural gas, coal and carbon credits. This morning, gas, oil and carbon prices are ticking slightly higher providing support to power, despite this, fundamentals are neutral to bearish as gas markets remain over supplied and weather is expected to remain above normal for the 15-day forecast. In addition, a boost from renewable energy, wind, and robust gas stocks could provide headwinds to higher prices.
Thursday 10th January 2019 - Power prices rebounded in the spot markets across Europe and the UK as temperatures recovered from below normal, while curve prices fell alongside feedstocks, gas and carbon. This morning, gas and power prices are trading around flat to the previous close. Oil has pulled back slightly after moving higher over the past eight sessions, while carbon and coal look mostly neutral. Weather forecasts show another cool down coming near the end of the 15-day forecast.
Friday 11th January 2019 - Power prices dropped yesterday as mild weather and improving wind output lowers demand and increases supplies. Longer dated contracts were mixed with minor increases or losses as conflicting signals from the feedstock left traders with little clarity in direction. This morning, power prices are finding support from feedstocks as oil leads the complex slightly higher boosting coal and gas while an expected drop in temperatures next week is bringing in some short covering.
Monday 14th January 2019 - Power prices recovered on Friday with UK prices moving higher on fears of cold and taking direction from a bounce in gas prices. This morning, the market is varied with some increases on front month contracts while spot prices and longer dated contracts are flat or slightly down. Carbon is dealing lower in early trading while gas and coal prices are mostly sideways.
Tuesday 15th January 2019 - Power prices were lower in all markets across Europe and the UK yesterday, as traders shrugged off the coming cold weather and instead traded power down with a collapse in the price of feedstocks like gas, coal and carbon. This morning, feedstocks are clawing back some of yesterday’s losses as oil halts its slide on news that china will cut taxes to boost a sagging economy, power is following with its own gains.
Wednesday 16th January 2019 - Power prices were varied yesterday across Europe and the UK with, both German and Nordic markets falling, despite increases in feedstocks, carbon and oil while the UK power market followed NBP gas to the upside. This morning, spot prices are soft with losses in both the UK and in Germany, early curve trading is also showing some minor losses as coal and gas dip while carbon is neutral. Weather forecasts show cold weather rolling to the end of the month without any discernible warm-up yet.
Thursday 17th January 2019 - Power prices were mixed by the close of trading yesterday, with UK and German power markets mostly increasing while the Nordics closed a bit more neutral. This morning, gas, coal, oil and carbon are all trading higher as colder temperatures take hold and forecasts are revised a bit colder for the balance of the month. The colder weather will also bring a downturn in wind production which will also help to support prices.
Friday 18th January 2019 - Power prices were on the rise yesterday, following feedstocks to the upside while colder temperatures and a drop in wind output lifted spot prices. Weather forecasts show continued below normal temperatures for the 15-Day outlook with some slightly warmer days in that period. Stock markets have reacted positively to US talk of easing some tariffs against China and the pound continues to improve as all parties are now coming together to try and come up with a way forward after PM May survived a confidence vote.
Monday 21st January 2019 - Power prices were mostly up driven by cold weather, a sharp drop in renewables and a rally in feedstock prices. This morning, weather forecasts have been revised much warmer and windier sending a gut-punch to the power markets. Power prices are down in all markets following the drop in feedstocks, European markets will be well supplied in gas with 10 more LNG cargos expected before the end of this month, should the warm weather forecasts hold the market would be expected to test downside price resistances.
Tuesday 22nd January 2019 - Power prices fell yesterday, dropping with feedstocks in the UK, gas, while on the continent and in the Nordics the drop in coal and carbon pressured prices lower. This morning, gas prices remain soft, while coal and carbon regain some of the ground lost to yesterday's move. The markets appear to be technically oversold however there is little in the way of bullish fundamentals, the early morning gains in power are likely to be limited, weather forecasts continue to look dovish.
Wednesday 23rd January 2019 - Power prices united yesterday on all contracts in all locations as coal increased and carbon traded towards new highs. This morning, gas, coal, carbon and oil are all in positive territory rebounding or continuing to climb, pulling power prices up with them in all markets. Weather forecasts are mostly unchanged with only slightly cooler temperatures early next week, there is no drastic warm up yet in the forecast, with many national forecasters suggesting slightly below normal weather until mid February.
Thursday 24th January 2019 - Power prices in the UK united yesterday on the back of a tight gas market and elevated prices. This morning, coal, gas and carbon are all being dealt lower as oil is falling on the back of expectations for a weekly stock build in the US crude market, while stock markets are up in Asia and Europe. Power prices are being dealt lower with feedstocks and on the impression of more mild temperatures to come in the near term.
Friday 25th January 2019 - Power prices fell more than £16/3Wh yesterday, only Germany did worse with the drop being closer to €20/MWh. Futures prices were down in all markets as falling prices for coal, gas and carbon pressured power. This morning, the gas market has taken a further hit as forecasts return to normal conditions and more LNG cargos are set to arrive, this has put pressure on UK power and continental power, coal is also down with carbon credits, leaving only oil to make gains on geopolitical concerns and trade machinations.
Monday 28th January 2019 - Power prices made increases in the markets around Europe and the UK as the warning days of a cold snap ended. This morning, the power market is digesting the news from the weekend that the German government aims to close out 13Gwh of coal fired power generation by the year 2022. Prices for power are down at the front end of the curve while the price for power in calendar 2021 and 2022 are up modestly. The overall bearish tone of the market looks to continue with mild weather in the 15-day forecast and a pick-up in renewable power generation.
Tuesday 29th January 2019 - Power prices found some support in the markets around Europe and in the UK yesterday, while curve prices sank under pressure from falling gas, coal and carbon prices. This morning, power prices are down in the UK following softer prices for NBP gas and a drop in carbon prices, Germany and the Nordics are also lower on falling coal, gas and emissions contracts.
Wednesday 30th January 2019 - Power prices were varied yesterday, the UK power market mostly increased following the NBP and the broader bullishness in oil and a weaker pound. This morning, the markets are a bit mixed, but support has generally been found. Profit taking after the protracted fall in prices coupled with hints of some cooler temperatures at the back end of the 15-day forecast are enough to bring out the buyers just ahead of the February contract expiry.
Thursday 31st January 2019 - Power prices in the UK rallied and failed yesterday, dropping in the afternoon with the NBP gas market. This morning, a drop in demand and a pick up in wind has put pressure on spot prices, forecasts for mild temperatures into the first half of February have eroded prices. Coal, gas and carbon are all dealing lower in early trade action putting pressure on power prices around the European complex.
Market Comments February
Friday 1st February 2019 - Power markets in the UK and Europe closed definitively lower yesterday, from the spot prices to longer dated calendars and seasons the direction for prices was down. This morning expects the direction to be similar, weather forecasts have turned warmer for February, dare we say winter is over? Perhaps not just yet but demand will be expected to wane into the new month.
Monday 4th February 2019 - Power prices shadowed coal, carbon and gas down on Friday. Also, warmer weather in the forecasts added to the bearishness. Warmer weather in both Europe and Asia have added to bearishness. This morning we see power trading lower again. Lower Carbon, coal and gas coupled with warmer weather is pushing down prices. Carbon is trading near € 21.50/ton and is approaching the € 21 level, a technical support level.
Tuesday 5th February 2019 - Coal, carbon and gas was down from the start of yesterday, with warmer weather also helping to push down prices. But a unsuccessful attempt to break through the € 21.30/ton support level for carbon spurred a lot of buying interest. This sent carbon up to close above € 23/ton, pulling power contracts up, especially late in the day (after the close for Continental exchanges). Currently we are trading around € 23/ton, slightly down for the day.
Wednesday 6th February 2019 - Power markets were mostly unchanged to up yesterday despite a huge drop in coal, that dropped almost $1.5/ton yesterday. Input from the weather was mostly bearish yesterday, with forecasts still pointing to a warm and windy period ahead of us. We are therefore likely to see spot prices fall over the coming days. This morning power contracts are marginally up, driven by a slight bounce in coal and higher carbon.
Thursday 7th February 2019 - UK power was unchanged yesterday as it was caught between bearish gas and bullish coal and carbon. Carbon had a strong close on Tuesday, closing just above the €23/ton figure. This spurred more buying interest, and during the day, yesterday, carbon was up above €24/ton before closing slightly lower. Coal also made increases as it failed to break below the $ 80 /ton level on Tuesday. This morning we have small gains in coal, gas and carbon, and power contracts open up across the board.
Friday 8th February 2019 - Power markets followed the bearish fuel inputs down yesterday. In the UK, EDF said it will close down the 2 GW coal-fired Cottam plant from Sep-19. It is a 50 year old plant, and didn’t win the capacity auction for 2021/22 last year. This morning power market opens further down, with the front taking the hardest hit as the end of the forecasts look slightly warmer today compared to yesterday.
Monday 11th February 2019 - Power prices made unsure increases in the spot, on Friday, despite a pickup in wind production and mild weather, by contrast curve prices were resoundingly lower across both Europe and the UK. This morning, gas, coal, carbon and oil prices are all down and with them power prices in the UK, Germany and the Nordics. The weather outlook has been adjusted warmer for the 15-day forecasts which has also put further downward pressure on prices.
Tuesday 12th February 2019 - Power prices dropped in the UK yesterday, moving lower with gas, despite some support for carbon. Forecast runs this morning are showing divergent outcomes after day 10 with a split between warmer than and colder than normal, a possible reason for the market to find some support. Power prices are up marginally in early trade action with German power setting the tone for the market, carbon is also in positive territory.
Wednesday 13th February 2019 - Power prices were down across the board yesterday in all regions and on all contracts. This morning, the market has stabilized, gas contracts are dealing slightly down with carbon and power while coal and oil are up, expect to see the markets test these new lower levels before consolidation. Weather outlooks remain mild and have become slightly warmer in the 5 and 10-day portion of the outlooks for Germany, the UK and the Nordics.
Thursday 14th February 2019 - Power prices were varied yesterday, with UK power increasing alongside carbon and NBP gas. This morning, the markets are playing catch-up on the remainder of the late session rally as oil continues to creep higher. Up against this are robust supplies of gas and additional LNG cargos coming to Europe and the UK. However, after weeks of a bear market a stall in the declines may bring players into take profit, temporarily boosting prices.
Friday 15th February 2019 - Power prices dropped yesterday under the weight of selling pressure on carbon products in addition to the late session reversal and reduction in gas and coal prices. This morning, power contracts are trading flat in the UK and down on the continent and in the Nordics to the closing levels of the previous session.
Monday 18th February 2019 - Power prices closed in positive territory, capping off a week of relatively sideways trade action. The UK power market gained on a rise in gas prices and the move in carbon while markets on the continent moved in the same manner taking direction from feedstocks and the overall bullish sentiment of oil. This morning, the market continues to find support from oil and feedstocks as a bearish backdrop is out of focus from the nearby bullish sentiment and technical trading. Moderate gains in early trading will be tested to see if a turnaround is indeed possible, mild weather and a pick-up in renewable generation will provide headwinds to spot and nearby contracts.
Tuesday 19th February 2019 - Power prices came under pressure yesterday across Europe and the UK as the favoured feedstocks in each market were found to be in surplus and dropping in price. In the UK gas prices and carbon were dealt lower and power followed while in Germany and the Nordics gas and coal weakness coupled with lower carbon and increased precipitation softened the markets. This morning, renewables are expected to reach their weekly peak productive capacity on mild weather and increased wind.
Wednesday 20th February 2019 - Power prices united late in the session following gas, coal and carbon prices higher, the increases were somewhat more quiet than expected as strong renewable output provided some bearishness. This morning, power prices are up in the UK following some modest gains in gas and coal, while Germany and the Nordics have traded mostly flat the to the close as weather forecasts and overall fundamentals remain neutral to bearish.
Thursday 21st February 2019 - Power prices moved up yesterday in all regions on price increases in feedstocks on a day with generally bullish sentiment from stock markets and a geo-political bounce in oil. This morning, what the market given with one had it taken with the other, power prices have retraced some of yesterday’s increases as feedstock, coal, gas and carbon deal lower.
Friday 22nd February 2019 - Power prices were distributed lower on falling feedstocks and on a drop in the cost of emissions credits, the punishment was met out across Europe and the UK. Weather forecasts were revised warmer in the 10-day outlook for most of NW Europe adding to the pressure. This morning, the market is trading slightly lower as feedstocks remain under modest pressure, however, nothing like the move yesterday. Friday trading may see a bit of profit taking ahead of the weekend which could keep losses in check or even a bit of a bounce.
Monday 25th February 2019 - Power prices around Europe and the UK came under further pressure on Friday, as feedstocks, coal and gas were traded lower and weather forecasts retained their warmth. This morning, power prices remain under downward pressure with carbon prices falling to match feedstock losses from Friday while an oversupplied gas market is pressuring that commodity and coal as well. upside for the market looks hard to come by with only oil retaining any value.
Tuesday 26th February 2019 - Power prices were lower in both the UK and in Germany yesterday, driven by lower prices for natural gas coupled with mild temperatures. This morning, coal and carbon are up, while gas and oil are down, some resistance is building to the downside as traders look to take profit and positive news out of trade negotiations between the US and China buoys equity markets. Power prices are mixed with spot contracts dealing lower while curve products are in positive territory.
Wednesday 27th February 2019 - Power prices separated yesterday between the UK and the continent, for the former, falling gas prices and a stronger pound pressured prices. This morning, coal, gas and carbon contracts are all dealing higher, on what appears to be a bit of a short squeeze after many sessions of aggressive selling with limited downward movement. Weather forecasts are a touch cooler now moving from well above seasonal normal to normal with a risk of some below normal temperatures into the final month of winter.
Thursday 28th February 2019 - Power prices could not escape the pull of higher feedstock's and carbon contracts yesterday which rocketed up after taking a beating for the past couple of months. This morning, oil prices are retracing slightly, carbon and coal are priced around the close while gas is mostly unchanged. For the first week of March 5 LNG cargos are expected to the UK while temperatures are expected to return to seasonal normal around that time. Spot prices are up in early trade action as temperatures begin to dip from recent highs.
Market Comments March
Friday 1st March 2019 - Power prices increased in all markets across Europe and the UK, bolstered by the rising price of feedstocks like coal and gas, coupled with gains in carbon credits and slightly cooler forecasts. This morning, gas is trading down slightly while coal is flat, and carbon is lower, weather forecasts have been revised a touch warmer. Coming into the last month of wither wind forecasts are expected to improve and solar will pick up as days extend.
Monday 4th March 2019 - Power trading was varied on Friday with UK power dealing lower in line with NBP gas contracts while German power rallied with carbon, Nordic prices were mixed lower in the front on precipitation while the back rallied with carbon and German power. This morning, prices are down slightly with lower feedstocks, coal and gas, softer carbon credits and mild weather. A pick-up in wind is expected over the 15-day forecast for the countries of NW Europe.
Tuesday 5th March 2019 - Power prices made increases in all markets and for all contracts yesterday, driven by higher input costs, coal and gas, coupled with increased carbon prices which have been on a rally for a over a week now. This morning, the same story, carbon prices are higher, and power is up with coal and this time even gas, which has arguable the most bearish fundamental back story of all.
Wednesday 6th March 2019 - All inputs to European power markets were bearish yesterday, and prices came off. For German power it was the first down-day in 6 days, lead by a large fall in coal and the first down-day to carbon in 8 days! Apart from the Nordic area temps remain at or above seasonal average for the next 2 weeks. Wind is also going to be healthy this week for most areas, and in general, the input from the weather side is still to the bearish side. This morning, we see coal coming off further, and gas is also weak. This is leading power contract lower from the start of the day.
Thursday 7th March 2019 - Lower fuel inputs sent power markets across Europe down yesterday. Coal was also in a big move down, and with weather also being on the bearish side, power found no strength anywhere. This morning, we see carbon just below €22/ton and coal and gas is also coming further off. This is sending power further down.
Friday 8th March 2019 - Mild weather and bearish gas gave purpose for power prices to dip in the UK and Germany while the less liquid Nordic market hooked on carbon and rallied. This morning, coal, gas and oil are down while carbon is unchanged, spot prices are holding their own as temperatures dip slightly. Power has made very modest increases in early trade action but with a generally softer complex and cuts to both GDP forecasts for Europe and the UK bullishness may be contained.
Monday 11th March 2019 - Power prices made increases at the end of a bearish week in the energy complex, despite sideways prices for gas, while coal, oil and carbon were all dealt lower. This morning, power prices are slightly softer, weather forecasts are warmer, solar and wind outlooks are both stronger, while gas and carbon prices are down slightly.
Tuesday 12th March 2019 - Power prices were under pressure yesterday in the UK as the market took note of dropping gas prices coupled with lower carbon and a stronger pound. This morning, carbon has reversed its drop and has helped to lift power albeit not enough to cover the fall from Monday. For UK traders and buyers, the pound rally on EU concessions is hope that the BREXIT will be more orderly than disorderly.
Wednesday 13th March 2019 - Power prices in Europe and the UK were dealt lower yesterday, spot UK power and calendar contracts for both German and Nordic power made increases. Weather outlooks for wind remain robust out until the end of the week while temperatures are moderate. This morning, coal is down while gas and carbon are modestly softer, support for power will be hard to come by. The BREXIT saga might provide some support to UK power and gas if the pound weakens, however, in early trading the sterling has rebounded from yesterday’s low.
Thursday 14th March 2019 - Power prices in the UK followed gas to the downside, as the European energy complex came under pressure. This morning, the power markets are clawing back some of their losses from the previous session, coal and oil are up, as is carbon, while the perpetually bearish gas market is sideways, which considering the recent falls is almost bullish. Parliamentary machinations will continue to be a focus of the market as pound/euro volatility creates opportunities for both traders and buyers/sellers alike.
Friday 15th March 2019 - Power prices moved in different directions between the UK and the continent yesterday, falling gas price too UK power down while stronger coal and carbon helped German and the Nordics to make gains. This morning, the broader energy complex is slightly up while gas continues to be a bit soft.
Monday 18th March 2019 - Power prices filed in unity on Friday, spot prices increased in all markets across Europe and the UK while curve prices were dealt lower as traders sold power down in line with falling feedstocks, gas and coal, and carbon. OPEC will meet and try to hold the line on supply cuts to try and balance the market while the Russians and Iraqis have sounded less enthusiastic.
Tuesday 19th March 2019 - Power prices were distributed lower yesterday coming under pressure from a drop in carbon, mostly unaware of a late session rally in gas and oil. This morning, weather forecasts have shifted slightly colder for the end of the week, gas and oil prices are up and renewable production is down. The set up is clear for a bit of a rebound in prices after a steady decline over the past week.
Wednesday 20th March 2019 - Power prices found support from buyers in Germany and the Nordics closing positions ahead of a return to normal temperatures and bit more demand. This morning, power prices are softer on the back of forecasts that show a slightly milder outlook for temperatures with a modest pick-up in renewables. There are few, new, inputs to the market and after quite a bearish run we could expect a move into a sideways market as players look for fresh inputs to the narrative.
Thursday 21st March 2019 - UK power diverged from the continent, a drop in the pound coupled with rising gas prices and a bump in carbon resulted in day-on-day gains. This morning, the market global commodities are trading relatively flat to their previous closes, coal and oil, while European power and gas are trading relatively tight to the previous day's settlement. Only carbon is trading down with any sort of authority while the rest of the markets have turned sheepish on bold moves.
Friday 22nd March 2019 - Power prices in the UK were dealt lower yesterday reversing increases from the previous session, moving in line with the drop in NBP gas and carbon. This morning, weather forecasts and expected wind production should be favourable to the bears with milder temperatures and a pick up in the outlook for renewables. BREXIT news remains a feature of market interest as the possibility of the NO-DEAL option hangs on the PM's ability to steer her MPs and take advantage of the 2-week extension.
Monday 25th March 2019 - Power prices dropped in the UK and in Germany on Friday, moving lower with combustion feedstocks, gas and coal, coupled with additional pressure from carbon. This morning, oil and stock markets are down, news of slowing economies is trickling out of Europe and now china as demand in the latter for electricity slowed for the first months of the year, the result of which could push more coal cargos to Europe further depressing prices.
Tuesday 26th March 2019 - Power prices were distributed lower in the UK following NBP prices, while German and Nordic power was mostly unchanged on the back of mixed signals from gas and coal while carbon improved slightly. This morning, oil is up, coal is up, and gas is mostly flat. Weather forecasts have turned a bit cooler for the start of April with temperatures dipping below normal in the UK while on the continent expectations are for normal levels.
Wednesday 27th March 2019 - Power prices recovered yesterday with stronger inputs from the fuel complex. Coal, carbon and gas all moved up yesterday, and drew power with it. We are looking into some warm weather for the rest of this week, but then temps are dipping down below seasonal averages, expected to give some support to spot prices for next week. This morning we see coal, carbon and gas opening slightly up, and power have also come off to a stronger start.
Thursday 28th March 2019 - Today power prices are down slightly in all markets in early trade action, a dip in prices for feed stocks, coal and gas coupled with lower oil and carbon, renewable production is holding up around normal for the time of the year, while temperatures are expected to remain around normal apart from the UK which may experience some slightly below normal temperatures.
Friday 29th March 2019 - Power prices dropped yesterday, coming under pressure from bearish gas and coal prices and moderating weather forecasts. Today is expiry for April, Q2 and Summer 2019 contracts and Monday will market the beginning of summer trading. PM May continues to try to get some part of BREXIT legislation through parliament, going so far as to offer to quit her job if her colleagues will simply pass something. Weather forecasts continue to look mild with moderate renewables for the start of the month.
Market Comments April
Monday 1st April 2019 - Power prices trended in the same direction around Europe and the UK on Friday, with spot prices increasing on a modest dip in temperatures while curve prices dropped with falling coal, gas and carbon prices. Weather forecasts continue above normal temperatures for the first couple weeks of April, with renewable power generation at around normal levels for the time of year. This morning, power prices are down in Germany and in the UK on softer coal and gas prices coupled with a dip in carbon. In the Nordics prices are up slightly in early trade on weather inputs.
Tuesday 2nd April 2019 - Power prices were lower in both German and the UK yesterday, coming under pressure from falling coal and gas prices, despite a minor uptick in carbon. This morning, coal and gas remain under pressure to the downside and German and UK power priced look much the same. Carbon prices are lower providing some additional bearishness to the market while oil is up and completely divorced from the rest of the European energy complex.
Wednesday 3rd April 2019 - Power prices were distributed lower in the UK yesterday, following gas prices to the downside with only longer dated contracts hanging on to their value. This morning, power is finding support from a rebound in carbon and coal prices while gas price weakness is keeping the rally in check thus far. In BREXIT news, legislators are today debating a law that would prevent a no-deal Brexit on 12 April. A no-deal Brexit could bring a dearth of UK EUA allowances back to the carbon market and pressure prices. The debate should keep carbon volatile during today's session.
Thursday 4th April 2019 - Power prices made increases on the back of rolling prices for both gas and carbon yesterday, coupled with increased weather related demand in the UK and generally weak renewables production across Europe. This morning, feedstocks, coal and gas, have retraced some of yesterday's gains but with a resilient carbon market power prices are mostly unchanged day-on-day with only minor gains or losses by contract or market.
Friday 5th April 2019 - Power prices increased with the whole fuel complex. This morning, gas has made a big move further up on reduced Norwegian flows. This is bullish the front of the curve, where gas is expected to be the primary fuel for production. Carbon has started the day down, and so the longer dated contracts aren’t up as much as the front.
Monday 8th April 2019 - Power prices rallied on Friday with gains in feedstock, driven by a gas price rally which lifted coal prices as well, carbon prices made minor gains helping to reinforce the direction. Today, the market is retracing some of the gains, from Friday following on a softening of the coal and gas markets coupled with a dip in the price of emissions credits. Weather forecasts continue to look mostly mild with a short-lived drop in temperatures to below normal conditions for the time of year, expected later this week.
Tuesday 9th April 2019 - Today power prices are up in the UK on the back of higher gas prices while coal is increasing, bringing the buyers into focus in Germany. Dry weather and lowered expectations for wind output provide some additional support to power prices. With the rally in the European energy complex an injection of fresh volatility should be expected for the near term as the market attempts to adjust to these new levels.
Wednesday 10th April 2019 - Power prices moved up in the UK yesterday, driven by a rally in gas and carbon contracts, while German and Nordic power were mostly unchanged despite the strength in the underlying European commodity complex. The specific drive for the bull run is not clear, be it carbon, gas or coal, but all of these commodities have created a virtuous cycle of buying which has fuelled the run. To break the cycle, the market will need a catalyst, warmer windier weather next week coupled with the Easter holiday and the interconnector maintenance might do it. This morning, power has moved up to catch-up with the late session moves in gas and coal.
Thursday 11th April 2019 - Power prices separated on either side of the English Channel with Continental and Nordic power prices rising with carbon, shrugging off the moves in coal and gas, while the UK power market dutifully followed the NBP gas market to the downside. This morning, coal, gas and oil are all softer while carbon continues to trade in a sideways fashion. Power is trading down in all markets this morning in early and relatively thin trade.
Friday 12th April 2019 - The day-ahead power contract shed value yesterday, with wind generation increasing from a low of 1GW yesterday afternoon, to a peak of 6GW by the end of today. Overall, the contract lost £5.46/MWh, to close at £46.79/MWh. Curve contracts ticked up along with gains in NBP gas and European carbon.
Monday 15th April 2019 - Power prices in the UK relaxed with NBP gas while more resilience was to be found on the continent where German and Nordic power were stable with the gains in carbon and coal. This morning, power prices are down with a drop in gas, coal and carbon prices. Temperatures have returned to normal and are forecasted to rise above normal into the latter part of the week and the weekend.
Tuesday 16th April 2019 - Power prices dropped in the UK on Monday, following gas to the downside, while the drop in coal prices pressured German power. This morning, coal, oil and carbon are down slightly while gas is in positive territory after a bit of a sell-off on the back of a tight spot market. Weather forecasts show continuing warmth to come until the 25th of April before returning to seasonal normal levels.
Wednesday 17th April 2019 - Power prices in the UK dropped slightly yesterday on the curve while spot prices were more resoundingly down. This morning, the weather is warmer, however, the wind has dropped off with solar PVs providing the renewable power to NW Europe. Demand is down as more people take time from work for the Easter holidays, the markets will be closed Friday and Monday across all markets with the Nordics taking an extra day off shuddering their market on Thursday as well. Power prices are up around the market this morning, with gas, coal, oil and carbon.
Thursday 18th April 2019 - Power prices followed feed stocks higher as the inputs increased through the trading day yesterday. This morning, the feedstocks are up again, a field outage in Norway has lost 10% of production with as of writing, no published cause or duration. Prices are up for gas, coal and power however it appears that the revised forecasts, warmer, are putting a lid on the increases. trading is closed in the Nordics, while ALL other markets are open.
Tuesday 23rd April 2019 - Power prices are a bit softer today, particularly at the front of the curve on the back of robust solar and wind power. Above normal temperatures are expected to fall back to normal levels near the end of the week. the bullish driver in the energy markets is oil which is up on news that the US will not continue its wavier program for Iranian oil, bears may find some solace in the news that Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pledged to help keep markets balanced.
Wednesday 24th April 2019 - Power prices were varied yesterday, with some contracts increasing while others lost in both Germany and the UK, only the Nordic market to decisive direction to the downside. This morning, power prices are up with carbon and coal while gas is sideways, and oil is slightly down, the market remains fixated on carbon, due to almost decade highs and the lack of fundamentals in the market makes it often a game of chicken for those brave enough to try and short it.
Thursday 25th April 2019 - Lower renewables sent spot prices up, while UK and German forward markets took input from the weak coal market and fell across the board. Only Nordic power were up on drier weather. Lower gas prices also helped send down European power prices. Coal fell more than 2 $/ton for the 2020 contract. High stocks in Europe and a generally low demand for the fuel as gas is more competitive in the power sector is putting pressure on prices. This morning we have opened unchanged on most inputs, but gas is marginally up, and so is power.
Friday 26th April 2019 - Power prices made increases in the UK, following the gas market, as did German power which moved with gas ignoring both coal and emissions. This morning, coal and gas are dealing slightly lower, weather forecasts are a touch cooler, with some below seasonal temperatures expected over the next 15-day period. In the UK spot prices are up slightly while curve trade is slightly lower. Volatility is expected to be higher today and on Monday as the front month contracts expire.
Monday 29th April 2019 - Power prices shadowed their feedstocks on Friday with UK power bowing to the low price for NBP gas while German and Nordic power followed the softening coal market. This morning, we are off to a slow start with only German power posting trades, all of them down in price from Friday, oil is down, and carbon is dealing around the closing level, slightly lower as of the time of writing.
Tuesday 30th April 2019 - Yesterday UK power made some modest increases on a flat gas market and gains in carbon, while German power fell with coal and the Nordics were firm with carbon and a dry hydro outlook. This morning, carbon and coal are down slightly, gas is flat, and oil is up slightly with strength in earnings from oil majors. Weather forecasts turn cooler, though not sharply below normal for any extended period.
Market Comments May
Wednesday 1st May 2019 - Power prices in the UK followed gas to the downside, as did German power while the Nordics rose with carbon and coal, on the continent the changes were modest in both directions. This morning, oil, coal, carbon and gas are all dealing slightly lower from yesterday’s close. Support in the market is coming from expectation for lower wind power generation over the month of May and a little spring frost expected over the weekend.
Thursday 2nd May 2019 - Power markets were partly closed yesterday for the May day holiday in many parts of continental Europe. The UK power market was open with trading as usual, coming under pressure from all sides, a weak gas market and a drop in both coal and carbon. This morning, the power markets are soft in the Nordics, on the back of increased precipitation and wind output and lower carbon prices.
Friday 3rd May 2019 - Power prices went in two directions with spot prices increasing on cooler weather and strong feedstocks like gas, while curve prices followed the drop in longer dated feedstock prices and the drop in carbon prices. This morning, forecasts are mostly unchanged, cooler temperatures remain expected over the weekend and early into the next week before rising back to seasonal normal levels.
Tuesday 7th May 2019 - Power markets in the UK were closed for a bank holiday, limited trading took place at the continental hubs which were open, increases were made on the back of below normal temperatures and bit of a lift in carbon and oil prices. This morning, power markets are trading relatively flat to the previous close, temperatures are expected to remain around normal across NW Europe, with the UK slightly above and Germany slightly below.
Wednesday 8th May 2019 - Power prices moved along with gas prices in the UK, taking a thrashing in the spot while the back end of the curve gained. This morning, coal and gas are dealing slightly lower and carbon is attempting a break below the 26-euro mark. Power prices are slightly softer in the UK and the Nordics while Germany is trading flat to the close.
Thursday 9th May 2019 - Power prices moved along with gas prices in the UK, spot prices increased by almost 1.5 £/MWh while also the rest of the curve increased 0.5-1 £/MWh. This morning, coal is sliding amid rising trade tensions and gas is up. Carbon has retaken the 27-euro mark and is closing in on previous highs. Power prices are up in the UK, Germany and the Nordics.
Friday 10th May 2019 - UK power followed the same path as gas prices, trading up in the front and down on the curve. With lower coal, carbon and curve gas contracts, the inputs to curve power products seemed more decisively bearish than mixed settlements. This morning power prices are more or less unchanged.
Monday 13th May 2019 - Power prices were under pressure on Friday from a drop in carbon prices coupled with a corresponding move in gas prices. This morning, prices continue to be softer as carbon, gas and coal are all dealing lower. Weather forecasts have been revised warmer for the 15-day outlook with a return to above normal temperatures is expected in all market areas. Trumps trade war is ratcheting up again boosting the dollar and keeping pressure on dollar denominated commodities like LNG, coal and oil.
Tuesday 14th May 2019 - Power prices in the UK dropped with gas in the spot and balance of summer products while the front season and beyond were unchanged. This morning, German power is mostly unchanged with coal prices down slightly and carbon up modestly, while in the Nordics prices are lower with rising temperatures. In the UK prices are mostly unchanged as gas prices are off only slightly and carbon is up.
Wednesday 15th May 2019 - Power prices in the UK reflected the moves in the gas market yesterday, sinking in the spot market and gaining across the curve with the broader energy market. This morning, coal and oil are down, gas is sideways, and carbon is slightly up testing the 26 euro level. Temperatures for next week are being revised even warmer in today's forecasts runs, if confirmed heating load overnight could drop to zero with moderate daytime cooling load.
Thursday 16th May 2019 - Power prices made small increases in the UK from the spot through to the balance of summer, while the longer dated contracts showed a more pronounced move. This morning power markets are relatively neutral, oscillating between strength and weakness with a close eye to carbon prices and feedstocks. Both gas and coal are slightly down while carbon has been in positive territory for most of the morning thus far, while oil holds its gains from the rally on Wednesday.
Friday 17th May 2019 - Power prices in both the Nordic area, Germany and the UK followed gas prices down yesterday. The bearish sentiment in power was fuelled by both carbon and coal coming further off. Especially coal seems to be on a convincing downward trajectory with prices coming off continuously since October 2018. At that time a ton of coal delivered in Rotterdam were priced at 95.5 $/ton (Cal-20 contract) whereas the current price level is now 69.50 $/ton. This morning prices opens marginally down.
Monday 20th May 2019 - Power prices in the UK followed gas on Friday to the downside with additional pressure coming from a reduction in prices for carbon credits. In Germany, softer coal and gas prices pressured power contracts while in the Nordics the market was broadly unchanged as traders shrugged off lower feedstock prices on account of low hydro reservoir levels. Today the energy complex is rebounding from Friday's lows, with oil making the most pronounced gains, gas and coal are only modestly up while has gained about 20cents. Forecasts call for temperatures to be warmer than the seasonal norm for the balance of the month and the first week of June with only a couple of days at the norm for the year.
Tuesday 21st May 2019 - Power prices dropped yesterday in Germany and the Nordics, both of which bore the brunt of a sharp drop in coal prices, with only a meagre increase in carbon to support the power. This morning, the fundamentals remain neutral to slightly bearish with near term weather looking mild and calm, an increase in wind is not expected until the end of the 15-day outlook when temperatures dip slightly below normal.
Wednesday 22nd May 2019 - UK power was distributed lower yesterday, following on weakness in the UK gas market, while the Germany market was mostly lower, and the Nordics mostly gained. This morning, the markets have reversed with the European complex showing minor gains, gas, power and carbon, while the broader markets, coal and oil are trading slightly lower as compared to the previous close. Weather forecasts have temperatures remaining above average before dipping below normal next week, the cooler temperatures are expected to bring increased wind power generation which could offset the temperature implications.
Thursday 23rd May 2019 - UK power united yesterday, following on strength in the UK gas market, while the Germany market was gained, and the Nordics were mostly unchanged. This morning, the markets have reversed with the European complex showing weakness, gas, coal, oil and carbon are down.UK and German power are down while the Nordics are up slightly. Weather forecasts are stable with temperatures remaining above average before dipping below normal next week, the cooler temperatures are expected to bring increased wind power generation.
Friday 24th May 2019 - Power prices were dealt lower yesterday across Europe and the UK with only the front month UK power sneaking in a gain. This morning, coal continues to decline, gas prices are marginally higher, while carbon is trading mostly flat to the previous day's close. A UK bank holiday on Monday means little trading will occur across Europe with many traders out of the office, making this Friday a possibly bigger day for trading ahead of front month contract expiry next week.
Tuesday 28th May 2019 - Power markets were very quiet yesterday with the UK bank holiday taking many brokers and traders out for a day off. This morning, the markets are mostly sideways in very thin early trade action. Weather forecasts are coming in slightly warmer for the 5-day outlook with the remaining 10-day outlook a bit more mixed from well above normal to only normal across Europe and the UK.
Wednesday 29th May 2019 - Power prices shadowed feed stocks during a relatively low volume session which is bookended by holidays, bank in the UK and Ascension on the continent. Coal continues to need to drop as it has been effectively pushed out of the power generation merit order because of falling gas prices, coming under pressure from high storage stocks. This morning, lower oil and coal strike a bearish tone, gas is a touch softer and carbon is sideways.
Thursday 30th May 2019 - UK power prices demonstrated their moves on the NBP gas yesterday, dropping sharply in the spot while curve prices were more moderately effected. This morning, despite the Ascension holiday the German market is open, along with the UK and the gas and coal markets, only the Nordic power market is closed today. Trading is very thin in power with only Germany logging any trades as of writing.
Friday 31st May 2019 - Power prices were distributed lower in very thin trade action as continental markets were mostly 'closed' for a holiday. This morning, oil continues to drop on economic concerns stemming from the bond market and yield curve inversion. Carbon is down almost a euro which is pressuring all power contracts, however, Germany and the Nordics appear to be playing a bit of catch-up from yesterday.
Market Comments June
Monday 3rd June 2019 - Power prices were left to the direction of the feedstocks on Friday, which received a good old-fashioned drubbing on account of the oil price massacre, the commodity lost more than $3/bbl. Gas and coal prices fell along with the cost of carbon credits, below the resistance of 25 euro/tonne. This morning, power markets remain under pressure with gas, coal and oil prices continuing to make losses.
Tuesday 4th June 2019 - Power prices took input from the bearish sentiment and corrected down with oil, emissions and gas. Coal were basically the only commodity of relevance for power that managed to stay unchanged. On the other hand, coal has been coming off continuously since October 2018 so form that perspective it seems ok for it to take a breather. This morning
emissions and gas starts up a touch higher than yesterdays close and power prices are marginally up.
Wednesday 5th June 2019 - Power prices recovered yesterday in the UK, boosted by the rise in carbon and gas prices. This morning, gas is down slightly while coal and carbon are trading sideways, oil is under modest pressure on the back of expectations of a large build in US stocks piles. Stock markets are on the rebound as the US Federal Reserve has signalled it is ready to cut rates if necessary under pressure from the growth in trade conflict.
Thursday 6th June 2019 - Bearish numbers across the fuel complex sent a bearish input to most European power markets. The rebound on Tuesday seemed to be just that, a rebound, with no support from fundamentals. This morning power is coming off in the front as forecasts are mostly bearish, while the longer dated contracts is going to take more input from the fuels. Carbon is testing the 24 €/ton level while coal and gas are also marginally off.
Friday 7th June 2019 - Power prices dropped yesterday as weather inputs were mostly bearish, and as carbon extended losses. The decreases were biggest in the front, while curve contracts held up a bit better. This morning, coal is up more than 1 $/ton, and gas is following. Carbon is also in positive territory. This has sent power contracts up across the board.
Monday 10th June 2019 - Power prices increased on Friday with feedstocks, the jump in oil prices and some short covering ahead of the Whit Monday holiday, effecting most of the continent. Low wind levels and moderating temperatures have lifted spot prices, while thin trading and a rise in both carbon and coal prices, today, have provided an early lift across the markets. Gains in the euro and other global currencies (pound excluded) vs. the dollar are also providing support to coal, oil and LNG which are mostly priced in US dollars.
Tuesday 11th June 2019 - Power prices united with feedstocks yesterday, increases in gas, coal and carbon provided the 'fuel' for higher prices in the UK and on the continent, albeit trading volumes were low due to the Whit Monday holiday. This morning, the feedstocks are mixed with gas and carbon up while coal is offered lower, the oil market is showing minor gains. Normal trading volumes are expected today with all markets open and a few weeks left before the summer holiday slow-down begins.
Wednesday 12th June 2019 - Continued high wind generation forecast for today and higher margins propped up the day-ahead contract, which gained £1.35/MWh, to close at £40.23/MWh. Curve contracts also corrected down along with NBP gas, whilst the slight slump in European carbon also added bearish pressure.
Thursday 13th June 2019 - This morning, the feedstocks are having a bit of a rebound, coal is up with gas, while carbon is barely in positive territory. The market is eyeing oil cautiously as a fire aboard an oil tanker in the Gulf region could cause shipping delays, oil has clawed back most of yesterday's structural losses. In BREXIT news, Boris Johnson is considered a favourite to be the next UK prime minister, if he manages to pull-off a no-deal BREXIT, 100 million UK C02 credits could slosh back into the EUA market bringing significant pressure to bear on the price European generators pay to burn fossil fuels.
Friday 14th June 2019 - Power prices were increased in the UK and German following on the heels of gains in gas, coal, carbon and sentiment from the oil markets. This morning, German power is dealing lower with a modest dip in carbon prices, UK power is weaker on the spot as gas is offered down day -on-day.
Monday 17th June 2019 - Power prices were unchanged in the UK on Friday, with the biggest moves coming to the spot price. This morning, coal, oil and gas are dealing sideways in very thin volume, while German power is dealing definitively lower, Nordic power is up and UK power is sideways. The weather outlook is improving with warmer temperatures expected through the 15-Day outlook while wind production is expected to be below normal for the rest of the month.
Tuesday 18th June 2019 - UK power prices shadowed the moves in gas with the gains being focused to the spot and front of the curve while the longer dated season were little changed. This morning, coal, oil and carbon are all flat to down slightly while gas is modestly higher on a tight system, driven by maintenance related cuts. Power prices are sideways in early trading action as the market searches for direction.
Wednesday 19th June 2019 - UK power followed NBP gas to the downside in the final part of yesterday's session. This morning, coal and gas are sideways to slightly lower with carbon, while oil is up marginally on expectations this week's US oil stock data will show a decline in crude volumes. Temperatures in large LNG consuming Asian nations are expected to be at or below normal reducing the near-term need for additional cargos. European power markets are trading sideways in early trade action.
Thursday 20th June 2019 - Power prices fell yesterday as inputs across the board was bearish. This morning oil and coal are up. Iran has shoot down a US drone, and investors are speculating the FED will lower interest rates. This has driven oil up, and coal is trading up ~1 $/ton for the front year contract. Carbon looks slightly soft though, trading at 24.90 €/ton, and power contracts have opened unchanged to slightly up.
Friday 21st June 2019 - Power resisted stronger coal and carbon and dropped slightly for most contracts. More production from renewables the coming days are sending a bearish signal to front contracts, while the heatwave coming to Europe during next week could increase demand for air-conditioning. This morning oil is easing off the 65 $/bbl. high it has reached, and coal and carbon is trading unchanged. Power contracts open flat to yesterdays close apart from Nordics, where drier weather is lifting prices.
Monday 24th June 2019 - Power prices increased on Friday, moving up with feedstocks, coal and gas, coupled with the bullishness of carbon and oil. The rise in temperatures will drop cut overnight heating but will bring on cooling load German spot has rallied on the impending demand. Gas and coal are trading sideways in early action, oil and carbon are both slightly higher, power prices are trading at a premium gaining with demand strength and supply weakness from poorly performing wind assets and reduced nuclear output.
Tuesday 25th June 2019 - Power prices gained in the UK market yesterday, following on the one euro move in the cost of carbon credits and a moderate bounce in NBP gas contracts. German and Nordic power were also bulled up on the carbon move coupled with gains in coal and gas, oil was not a mitigating factor. Today, carbon is up by 25 cents, gas and coal are moving sideways and slightly lower respectively, while oil is a touch lower.
Wednesday 26th June 2019 - UK demand remained at 180mcm today, staying 22mcm above seasonal norm with unseasonably high gas burn for power generation. Despite the short UK system, prompt prices have reduced this morning and front month is trading below 25p/therm with two LNG cargoes set to arrive in the UK boosting supply
Thursday 27th June 2019 - Power contracts dealt up yesterday on bullish carbon and coal. Curve contracts more than front contracts, and Nordic power even managed to close down on the day on wetter forecasts. Carbon broke out of a sideways trend on Monday and has increased from around 25€/ton to test an intraday high of 27.5€/ton yesterday. Technical trading and higher fuel burn in Europe due to the current heatwave are accredited to the rise.
This morning we see carbon, coal, oil and gas coming off yesterday’s closes, and power contracts open down for most contracts. All eyes will be on carbon though, and the big question is if it is going to test the previous high of 27.85€/ton for the Dec-19 contract.
28th June 2019 - UK power followed the gas market down yesterday, while German power was strong to the decreases in both coal and carbon. Inputs to power markets were generally bearish yesterday as both coal, carbon and gas feel. Also, wind is predicted to increase during next week, giving higher output from renewables. This morning coal, carbon and gas are all slightly off, and power contracts open in negative territory.
Market Comments July
Monday 1st July 2019 - Another fall in carbon set the headline for European power that fell on Friday. Also, gas and oil was down, but coal managed to post a small increase. Carbon had been very unstable last week, increasing from just above 25€/ton to almost 27.50 on Wednesday. Then down more than 1€/ton during Thursday and Friday to close at 26.28€/ton, up 1€/ton for the week. Power has struggled to follow along but has to a large extent mirrored the moves. This week temperatures are expected to fall after the heatwave that hit Europe during the weekend. Front contracts open down on above average wind for most of this week, but significantly up on the curve as both coal and carbon open up. Positive news from the trade war and a possible OPEC cut extension are bullish inputs.
Tuesday 2nd July 2019 - Mostly bullish moves on European power markets yesterday. Carbon was the main driver, up more than 0.5€/ton to close just below the 27€/ton mark. Coal was also bullish most of the day but settled down as a late drop in oil affected the coal market. Even though wind is dropping during the coming days, it is expected to stay above average for most European countries. But the drop will increase the demand for thermal power plants, with rising spot prices as a consequence. This morning, carbon has increased, and so has gas, giving a bullish input to European power markets.
Wednesday 3rd July - UK power followed gas down yesterday, while German power rose in the front, but ended unchanged further out on the curve. Inputs to the power markets were mostly bearish for curve contracts, with coal dropping almost 1 $/ton, and carbon and gas also coming off. Today new inputs are hard to find to support direction, with all fuels trading more or less unchanged. Weather also looks little changed, and power contracts open unchanged.
Thursday 4th July 2019 - UK Power prices weakened in line with the developments in the gas market and CO2 market. The short end of the UK power curve might come under more pressure today due to strong wind generation in the coming days. Curve contracts in Germany eroded half of the gains from the mid-June rally, while the prompt finds support from low wind generation and an unexpected outage of a 0.6 GW gas plant. Nordic prompt increased on drier forecasts Carbon ended the day in negative territory after it has failed to increase beyond the 27.50€ mark for a second time in the last week.
Friday 5th July 2019 - Today, there is a lack of new inputs, and we see most power contracts trading flat to yesterdays close. However there is noticeable movement in coal as there seems be some speculation on as to weather some of the larger producers will have to cut supplies given the long downtrend in prices for the last half year or so. If supplies are cut, that would be bullish coal prices.
Monday 8th July 2019 - Power prices across Europe rallied on the back of the surge in prompt gas prices. Especially prices for electricity in UK and DE for the rest of the summer were in high demand. The strength can be explained by progressing CO2 prices and a very strong week for European coal prices. Weak wind generation forecasts add to the bullishness of the short end of the curve. The longer-dated contracts show modest gains on Friday. Nordic power continues to be in high demand due to the dry weather forecast. The sentiment remains bullish this morning. Gas, power and emissions are up.
Tuesday 9th July 2019 - The NWE power markets turn bullish and follows the trend upwards in fuel and CO2 prices. German power gained almost 2 EUR/MWh in the front, where the pricing heavily depends on gas. The longer-dated contracts are still dominated by the moves in coal and carbon added 1.1 EUR/MWh. The Cal-20 contract is flirting with the 50 EUR level. UK power mimics the move of the gas market and surges by more than pound in the front month. Nordic power continues its upwards trend on dry weather. The advanced in C02 prices fuels the bullish sentiment among the traders. Today start into the day is mixed with a positive open for Nordic & DE power and a small minus for CO2.
Wednesday 10th July 2019 - UK power followed the developments of the gas market. The longer-dated contracts were supported by rising gas prices and a weak pound. Improved wind generation forecasts and the late decline of prompt gas prices pressured the short-end of the UK power curve. Record low gas prices and high CO2 prices have pushed coal out of the stack. Today prices are firmer across NW-European power markets.
Thursday 11th July 2019 - Power markets in UK, Germany and the Nordics extended their rally on Wednesday and gapped up this morning. Price surged in the last trading hours of the day, when the price for carbon marked a new 11 year high. The sentiment in the fuel market is shifting and the bulls take over control. Oil, coal and gas had a very strong day yesterday with price increases of several % day-on-day. This morning EUA’s have added another % and are closing in on the 30€ level.
Friday 12th July 2019 - Power prices surged as nervousness mounts. Today we expect to see some bearish pressure on the longer-dated contracts due to the decision to replace the EUETS with a fix carbon tax of 16£/t, which is 10£/t lower than the current EUA price. Today, an advisory report about carbon pricing and carbon tax was handed over the Merkel and she’s expected to take a decision on how to proceed in September.
Monday 15th July 2019 - Power prices in the UK have been following gas and carbon to the positive over the past week as basics have been side-lined for greater energy market news and traders’ sentiments. German power is also on the rise with coal and gas while the Nordic market has been a bit more passive due to the growing hydro balance. This morning the gas market continues to drift higher, coal and carbon increased while oil is unchanged. Power markets increased with commodities generally and being pulled from the front end of the curve more precisely. Weather forecasts are warm with poor wind output and reasonable solar, however the market is mostly focused on the rise in carbon and the broader commodity complex.
Tuesday 16th July 2019 - UK power prices followed the gas market yesterday, like most days, making early gains to peak in the early afternoon before dropping back to flat and falling into deficit in the latter part of the session, closing down day-on-day. This morning, the gas market, along with coal and oil are tracking further down, while carbon is up modestly UK power is off slightly, while German and Nordic power are more clearly lower in early trading action.
Wednesday 17th July 2019 - Power prices fell in the UK following a sell down in gas, amongst other commodities, coal, oil power and carbon were also dealt lower. This morning, gas prices remain flat while coal is down, and oil is slightly up. Maintenance continues across Europe, output at three French nuclear plants, represents around 15% of the country’s nuclear capacity will be offline for the coming week. Renewables production is down for wind assets, below seasonal normal, solar is producing at average.
Thursday 18th July 2019 - UK power prices dropped yesterday, driven down on the spot and balance of summer contracts, while seasonal contracts were unchanged, mirroring the moved on the NBP. This morning, power prices are dealing lower in all markets save for the Nordics which are mostly flat. Extreme heat forecasted for next week could curb power production from nuclear assets as river temperatures rise putting more demand on coal and gas fired power generation.
Friday 19th July 2019 - Power prices dropped in the UK, save for the spot price which managed to make increases in an overly bearish market. German and Nordic power also dropped in line with weak coal, gas and oil prices as traders reassessed value considering the changing commodity complex. This morning, the complex is bid on at the close from yesterday and early trading products like oil are up. Geopolitics have become tense again with the US stating it has shot down an Iranian drone that flew too close to an aircraft carrier operating in the Strait of Hormuz, the main shipping passage from the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean through which most Mid-East crude passes. Spot power is down while forward contracts are up slightly with carbon in early trade action.
Monday 22nd July 2019 - Power prices increased in the UK following the gas market, increases on the curve and unchanged on the spot. This morning, the oil market is up modestly as is carbon, both of which are providing some modest support to German and Nordic power on the far curve, nearer term products and balance of summer contracts are dealing lower. In the UK power is following gas which is slightly down at the front of the curve in early trade action while longer dated contracts are unchanged.
Tuesday 23rd July 2019 - UK power prices found backing on the spot but lost ground on the forward curve in line with the moves in the gas market. This morning, the power markets are a touch softer as feedstock inputs trade down slightly in early action with only oil making any noticeable gains day-on-day. The UK Met Office forecasts temperatures in the south of the UK to reach as high as 37'C this Thursday a mere 1.5'C short of a national record, the high temperatures will compromise some power generation at nuclear facilities and wind output is expected to be below normal boosting reliance on gas and coal.
Wednesday 24th July 2019 - Power prices were boosted yesterday along with increases in feedstocks, coal, gas and carbon, egged on by gains in oil. UK power moved up with gas, making the greatest gains in the spot and on the front month. This morning, feedstock development has been modest or sideways with coal and gas trading unchanged while carbon and oil are dealing only slightly higher. Several power plants have been closed due to heat around the continent which is expected to continue into the following week.
Thursday 25th July 2019 - Power contracts were mostly down across the UK, Germany, the Nordics and other continental markets yesterday except for some minor spot market gains driven by cooling load demand as a summer heatwave roils NW Europe. The decrease in UK power was fuelled by lower gas and carbon prices, and bearish sentiment from coal and oil. German and Nordic power dropped with coal and softer carbon prices. Today marks the crest of the heatwave with temperatures in the "Capital of Love", Paris, hitting a steamy 43'C before they drop back on Friday, however, they will remain above normal for the rest of the 15-Day outlook. Prices are mixed in early trading with minor gains or losses in each market across different contracts, coal, oil and gas are trading close to their respective closing levels as the market looks for direction.
Friday 26th July 2019 - Spot power traded lower across all markets as the heatwave is expected to crest today and moderate over the weekend reducing some cooling load demand and allowing for power plants to operate more efficiently. Curve trade was down in the UK yesterday save for the front month. This morning, carbon is off slightly, coal is offered on at the close while gas is broadly unchanged in early trade action. oil is slightly up with stock markets are trading in negative territory.
Monday 29th July 2019 - Spot power prices held value and made gains on Friday, driven by extreme heat and heightened demand for cooling load across continental and UK markets. By contrast, forward contract for the balance of summer and longer dated contracts dropped with a rout in feedstocks, coal and gas and a drop in the cost of carbon credits. This morning, coal, oil and gas prices are all a touch softer as demand for the feedstocks from the power sector is expected to moderate with a return to more seasonal temperatures. The stand out is carbon which is up somewhat, after being sold off late last week after failing to break the 30-euro mark.
Tuesday 30th July 2019 - Power prices relaxed in the UK yesterday, following on lower prices for natural gas, controlling demand from cooler temperatures, and pick-up in wind power production. By contrast, in Germany power prices were varied, softer in the balance of summer while calendar contracts closed higher, in the Nordics contracts mostly closed up on dry conditions and increases in carbon. This morning, gas, coal and carbon are broadly unchanged while oil is trading slightly higher from the previous close. Wind production is expected to increase in both the UK and Germany easing demand for fossil fuel backed production.
Wednesday 31st July 2019 - Power prices were down somewhat in the UK despite gas being mostly unchanged, the drop in carbon prices opened traders up to some downside in pricing. German power also dropped on the fall in carbon, due to a heavier dependence on coal and gas, by contrast the Nordics were mostly unchanged. This morning, power prices are up slightly on generally bullish sentiment from oil. Feedstocks like coal and gas are not providing direction and carbon is trading sideways. Renewables are not performing well, outlooks are far below seasonal production for the 15-day outlook.
Market Comments August
1st August 2019 -Power prices rallied yesterday in the UK and on the continent, driven up by poor renewables production at the front end of the curve and strength in gas and carbon prices, a bounce in oil provided bullish sentiment to the trading day. This morning, power prices remain supported by low wind production which is in turn supporting gas prices through higher power plant burn. Minor gains in carbon and oil are helping to lift prices on the longer dated contracts (seasons and calendars). The US FED cut rates yesterday and gestured that they may be open to further cuts, and possibly increases, leaving the markets confused and causing whip-saw action in currencies, LNG and coal are often prices in USD and currency moves can affect the attractiveness of these commodities.
Friday 2nd August 2019 - Power prices increased in the UK yesterday, following a rally in NBP gas which saw the front month increase 10%. Longer dated contracts also rallied receiving support from carbon contracts and coal, oil dropped hard, down more than $4 on increased tariffs between the US and China. This morning, oil and coal are up, gas and carbon are down. Temperatures are moderating, while wind and solar are low, the former is expected to improve next week. Prices are down in early trading, retracing with gas and carbon.
Monday 5th August 2019 - Power prices in the UK closed lower on Friday following a late session sell-off in gas, coal and carbon, Nordic markets followed the UK while the German power market was able to find support from inferior supply availability from wind and solar. This morning, power contracts in both German and the Nordics are dealing lower on a sell-off in coal and slightly softer carbon prices. Gas prices are mostly unaffected as traders exchange contracts around Friday's closing price with no direction. UK power is a touch softer with carbon but trading in thin volume.
Tuesday 6th August 2019 - Power prices were marked down yesterday, following on the falling prices for feedstocks, coal and gas, coupled with bearish sentiment from the oil and equities markets. This morning, power prices continue to soften in the UK, Germany and the Nordic region, coal is trading at a discount from the preceding close, gas is down slightly, and carbon is weaker, only oil is enjoying a minor relief rally. Weather forecasts remain mostly unchanged with expectations for temperatures to cool towards normal and then slightly below for the second half of the 15-day outlook, wind is expected to pick up over the coming days.
Wednesday 7th August 2019 - Power prices followed the broad fuel-complex and closed significantly lower. In the UK prices dropped together with the poorly performing CO2. W-19 is closing in on the 55 GBP/MWh which has acted as a support in the last couple of weeks. Wind generation will pick up over the next days and we can expect to see softer spot prices this weekend. Stronger wind has pushed German 10€/MWh. Cal-20, the most liquid longer dated contract, is trading at 50€/MWh this morning. Above normal precipitation and the weakness of neighbouring markets send the Nordic prices plummeting.
Thursday 8th August 2019 - Power prices gained in the UK yesterday, while continental prices, both Germany and the Nordics amongst them dropped. The continued decline of oil prices into a technical Bear market soured the sentiment of the market, coal and carbon fell while gas prices were mixed. This morning, news the Saudis will work to support oil prices has stopped the slide, but trade tensions could cause this to flare-up again. Oil, coal and carbon are all dealing higher, while gas is trading mostly unchanged in early action, power prices are getting an early lift but overall bearishness may keep the gains capped.
Friday 9th August 2019 - Power prices united yesterday in the UK following gas and carbon prices to the upside for all contracts, save for the spot where increasing wind output sent prices lower. Much the same for the Nordic markets which mirrored the UK for the same reasons, while Germany gained across the curve, wind is expected to play a factor over the weekend in that market. This morning, markets remain firm, oil and stocks have stabilized after a tumble early this month, gas and power remain bid on at the close while spot prices look softer as wind output picks up into the weekend. Major gas maintenance is beginning which is supporting prices, technical look near term strong but will come up against resistance today after the previous move.
Monday 12th August 2019 - Spot power prices rebounded across Europe, the UK and the Nordics for the Day-Ahead on Friday as wind output dropped sharply for Monday, longer dated contracts were mixed, despite softer continental gas, coal and carbon inputs. This morning, power markets in Germany and the Nordics are mostly unchanged despite lower wind and solar receipts, a tight gas market this morning is lifting the UK and providing some support to German power. Carbon prices are up modestly in early trading, coal is sideways, and oil is slightly lower. Equity markets are expected to open marginally positive this morning, following the results in Asia.
Tuesday 13th August 2019 - An unexpected uptick in wind this week should pressure delivered power prices in the UK while seasonal temperatures erode value across all markets. German and Nordic power were also sold lower with carbon, coal and increased precipitation. Today, the power markets continue to focus on the weakened carbon market coupled with bearish sentiment from the oil and coal markets, gas is trading sideways in early action, receiving some support from a tight spot market.
Wednesday 14th August 2019 - UK power prices gained yesterday, following gas, carbon and the broader energy complex higher. German and Nordic power were more mixed, but generally found support from strength in feedstock's and carbon. This morning, power prices are coming under some early pressure with feedstock's, coal and gas, trading lower, carbon is also weaker. Renewables are poorly performing right now; German wind production will range from 3GW to 8GW on today; likely to be the lowest range for the working days this week.
Thursday 15th August 2019 - Broadly, the energy markets fell yesterday with a sharp drop in global equity markets as negative growth numbers, trade war worries, and flat lining yield curves for government bonds sent investors fleeing for safe havens. This morning, power is getting some support from a bounce in carbon coupled with mostly sideways trading in gas and coal.
Friday 16th August 2019 - Power prices were dealt lower around Europe and in the UK yesterday, falling prices for feedstock's, coal and gas, coupled with a drop in carbon prices and bearish sentiment from oil and equities set the tone and direction. Spot prices managed minor gains in all markets whereas curve contracts all retreated. This morning, markets are finding a bit of early support from a minor rebound in oil and coal, gas is bid on at the closing prices while carbon is up. Weather forecasts continue to suggest temperatures around normal for the balance of the 15-Day outlook, wind in the UK should be strong today and into the weekend, robust precipitation has increased hydro reserves in the Nordic region from a deep deficit to almost seasonal levels.
Monday 19th August - Today, wind output is tailing off across Europe and the UK, while temperatures are expected to improve throughout the week giving many regions another taste of summer after a chilly couple of weeks. Coal and gas are trading down in early action while oil and carbon are up with stocks and hopes for calmer waters on the global trade front. Power prices are mixed with minor gains and losses but no clear direction.
Tuesday 20th August - Power prices drifted lower in the UK with gas. Temperatures are expected to pick up into the end of the week, solar production will rise as well, while wind output will be almost non-existent for the balance of the 15-day outlook. Today, a bounce in oil and coal coupled with carbon has lifted the German and Nordic power markets, moderate support for gas ahead of Norwegian maintenance and lower renewable generation are keeping the UK power market from sinking further in early trade action.
Wednesday 21st August - Power prices in the UK got a minor lift from the uptick in gas prices, however the drop, in carbon kept the moves modest. Today, carbon, gas and coal are all trading relatively flat to the previous close and power prices are following this lead. Oil prices continue to tick up, a short-term bull trend has taken place over the past two weeks and it continues today, broadly concerns over the health of the global economy, trade issues and sovereign debt are weighing on commodity prices.
Thursday 22nd August - Power prices slid the UK yesterday, on a combination of weaker coal, carbon and mixed continental gas, relative strength on the NBP and a weak pound was only noted for gains in the September contract in the UK. Power markets remain soft today, with minor losses in carbon, coal and gas despite upcoming maintenance in the latter feedstock. Weather forecasts for above normal temperatures and low wind on the continent have not done much to support prices, the heat will not be enough to call on air conditioners and the last of the European summer holidays are dampening demand.
Friday 23rd August - Power prices in the UK were weighed down by gas and carbon which closed the session down, coupled with a strong pound. Today, power prices are dealing slightly lower along with gas and carbon, the former is finding it difficult to find a market as flows from LNG increase. Weather forecasts remain warmer than normal, wind output is very low while solar is helping to offset the renewable shortfall.
Tuesday 27th August - Power markets were quiet yesterday, trading with low liquidity on account of many participants out for a UK bank holiday. The UK gas and power markets were shuttered along with the FTSE, a late summer heat wave also kept traders at bay with most contracts trading in volumes well below normal. Today, the markets are a touch softer, feedstock's like gas, coal and carbon are dealing lower, rising wind output over the next couple of days in the UK should cut some demand for gas, however high temperatures will bring on some additional demand for cooling across the UK and the continent.
Wednesday 28th August - Power prices fell yesterday, driven down by falling prices for feedstocks, gas and coal and a discount in carbon credits. Temperatures remain well above normal but are forecast to move back to seasonal levels in the second half of the 15-day outlook. Wind output is poor during the heatwave but may pick-up a bit after the weekend. Today, power prices are gaining in all markets with a rise in the price of carbon and modest gains from coal and gas, oil remains in positive territory.
Thursday 29th August - Power prices fell in spot markets across Europe and the UK yesterday, as temperatures cooled and wind increased marginally, curve contracts were up slightly following carbon, while feedstocks, gas and coal were mostly flat day-on-day. Today, power prices are flat to slightly lower than the previous close, carbon is trading slightly lower in early morning action while coal and gas prices have not made a move to either the up or downside. Oil is down slightly from yesterday are equity indexes and the pound/euro cross. Much attention will be focused on BREXIT again as the October 31st deadline looms large and the UK PM prorogues parliament..
Friday 30th August - Power prices were mixed yesterday despite a stronger energy complex which saw gas, coal and carbon all make day-on-day gains. Weather forecasts have been revised a touch warmer for the second week of September which may keep pressure on spot prices as the summer season draws to a close. Today, carbon has made some early gains lifting power prices with it, while coal, oil and gas are trading flat or slightly down from the close. expect a little volatility today as October becomes the new front month and traders sort their positions to close out the week.
Market Comments September
Monday 2nd September 2019 - Power prices got lifted on Friday. A combination of weather driven inputs and higher coal and carbon was bullish the power. Continental prices were up the most. Also, some of the bullishness seemed to come from the fact that Friday was the end of the month, and there seemed to be just the same buying interest that wasn’t fundamentally driven. In the last hour towards the close, markets lost some of its momentum, and the closing on coal and carbon was in negative. Today power prices are catching up with the continued weak fundamentals, and we see bearish starts to the week across all markets
Tuesday 3rd September 2019 - Markets caught up with the continued bearish fundamentals yesterday. The European gas market is very well supplied and puts a bearish pressure on other markets. On top of this carbon continued the sell-off that started Friday afternoon, and ended the day more than 1 €/ton down. On top of this coal and oil are also bearish. Today, carbon is flirting with the 25 €/ton support level, and it is worth keeping an eye out for either a rebound or a breakthrough. This is likely to set the direction for power as well.
Wednesday 4th September 2019 - Power markets took the bounce in coal and carbon relatively calm yesterday. As we have written on these lines a few days now, both coal and carbon were flirting with previous support levels. These seem still to hold, and it led to some buying interest in both commodities, also pulling up gas prices. Power contract did for the most parts close in positive territory, but not by much. Today, we are up further as both carbon and coal has strengthened even further. Developments around BREXIT has given some buying interest in carbon, and is currently testing the 26 €26/ton level.
Thursday 5th September 2019 - Power prices in the UK managed to mark minor gains yesterday, despite lower prices for gas, lifted by carbon. Nordic and German power diverged, more precipitation sank the Nordics while the lift in carbon and bullish oil raised Germany. Today, carbon and coal are up, gas is sideways, and oil is slightly down. The feedstocks are signalling the direction for power again today, with UK power flat. The moves are modest across all markets and increased volatility is expected to close out the week.
Friday 6th September 2019 - Power prices gained in the UK yesterday, increasing with NBP gas while carbon was not a factor in the moves. Today, power prices are higher in early trading action, gains in coal and oil coupled with carbon are enough for traders to lift prices early in the session, heading into the weekend. Gas prices are mostly sideways giving less lift to the UK than to other markets. Overall, bearishness still hangs over the markets from BREXIT to trade and recession fears which have thus far kept a lid on markets.
Monday 9th September 2019 - Power prices gained in spot markets in the UK in addition to the continent on Friday, while curve prices were supported by coal, gas and oil. Weakness in carbon prices kept the gains to a modest level. Today, low wind power output and cooler temperatures are supporting spot prices. A shortfall in gas supplies to the UK is lifting gas prices, while coal and oil are making early gains. Strength in feedstocks is helping to lift carbon and power prices as traders consider short-term demand against expected with output to come later in the week.
Tuesday 10th September 2019 - Power prices in the UK mimicked the gas market, weaker to the front and supported on the longer dated contracts, the difference was a soft spot price which was consistent across all the European power markets. Today, prices are a touch softer in early trade action, carbon is dealing lower along with coal and gas while oil is trading marginally higher than the close.
Wednesday 11th September 2019 - Bullish trade on the NBP gas market coupled news from French utility EDF, of the discovery of substandard welding in nuclear reactors and other components lead to massive short covering and fears of a repeat of previous year's nuclear curtailments. The panic spread like wildfire to both German and Nordic markets lifting contracts across the curves and causing buyers to lift feedstocks and carbon along with the power. This morning, the market is trying to sort out all of the headlines and rebalance positions, traders are buying gas, coal and carbon in addition to power in a virtuous bullish cycle.
Thursday 12th September 2019 - Power prices softened slightly in the UK moving down with carbon while gas prices were virtually unchanged, power gained on the continent as traders remained worried about potential issues with the French nuclear fleet. Today, power markets are bid on and making small gains, save for the Nordics which are under pressure from a surplus in the hydro balance. The French regulator is concerned with substandard parts in 5 EDF reactors, EDF may announce how much equipment is compromised in a week, while the regulator will decide in a month. The market will weigh this information and trade accordingly and thus far increased intraday volatility and increased volumes are expected to change hands.
Friday 13th September 2019 - Power prices made gains in the UK yesterday driven by strong moves in the spot, while longer dated contracts were unchanged or dealt lower with gas. Despite the rise in coal and carbon, both German and Nordic power declined, retracing some of the gains from the previous session. Today, power prices are up along with carbon, coal and modest gains in gas at the front of the curve. Early trading shows the buyers are still in control of the market and those with shorts may look to cover ahead of the weekend, forecasts have been updated with a couple of colder than normal days next week before a return to seasonal or above conditions.
Monday 16th September 2019 - Power prices gained on Friday in Germany and the Nordics, while the gains in the UK were localized to the spot and front month, following the moves in gas. Over the weekend, drone attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure disrupted 58% of oil production and 18% of natural gas production, half of the lost production should return today or tomorrow with the remainder expected in a few weeks. In early trading, markets spiked with the open of oil, which hit a high of $72/bbl, but have since come off these highs, oil is now trading $65.5/bbl. Continental gas is up just under a euro, NBP gas up 1.5p/therm, German power up 1.25 Euro/MW, UK power up 1.5£/MW and Nordic power is down slightly. Increasing renewables and above normal temperatures are expected from Sept. 20 forward.
Tuesday 17th September 2019 - Power prices rose in the UK yesterday, following gas, the broader European energy complex, and the global energy complex. German power also gained with gas, coal and carbon while the Nordics were little affected by all the chaos in the energy markets, rising only slightly in sympathy with the European power markets. Today, oil and coal are dealing slightly lower, gas and carbon are also down modestly as the fundamentals for these markets remain soft, mild weather and robust supplies going into the winter have left undertones of bearishness in the face of these market shocks. Power prices are down.
Wednesday 18th September 2019 - There is positive news concerning the stability of the French nuclear fleet has EDF and its contractor Framatome localizing the affected reactors to 6 units and minimizing the severity to anomalies that can be fixed during routine maintenance, all smoke and no fire. The result has been a sharp sell-off in power prices for Germany and the UK followed by moderate moves in the Nordics, feedstocks, gas and coal along with carbon, are also weaker adding to bearish sentiment.
Thursday 19th September 2019 - UK power prices followed gas to the downside and the bearish mood was reinforced by further slippage in the price for carbon credits. On the Continent, Germany, and the Nordics were also dealt lower with gas and coal coupled with lower carbon and bearish sentiment from the broader energy complex, low wind output supported the spot prices outside of the UK. Today, German and Nordic power are up with coal, while UK power is flat with gas, wind production is expected to increase over the weekend which will bring downward pressure on power, some support for spot prices may come from a return to normal temperatures at the back-end of the 15-day forecast.
Friday 20th September 2019 - Power prices in the UK were flat by the close save for spot prices which tumbled with an increase in wind power output, by contrast, German and Nordic power rose with coal and carbon. Today, feedstocks are a touch stronger, particularly coal while gas is mostly sideways. Carbon prices are on the rise, along with oil helping to support power.
Monday 23rd September 2019 - UK power prices gained on Friday, following gas and carbon to the upside, while gains on the continent and in the Nordics were more mixed, strength was most pronounced in all spot markets. Weather forecasts continue to show projections for above normal conditions in the UK and Germany while the Nordics average normal temperatures for the time of year. Today, power prices are down with gas and coal, while carbon and oil are sideways.
Tuesday 24th September 2019 - UK power prices followed NBP gas to the downside yesterday, aided by a drop in carbon prices. Both German and Nordic power also dropped with gas, coal and carbon, only managing to make gains in the spot on slightly tighter prompt balances. Today, Nordic power is down with a slightly wetter forecast while German power is mostly flat, gas and coal are unchanged giving little room for either positive or negative prices developments. UK power is trading flat day on day with a stable gas market. No market impact from the German climate action plan, however plenty of complaints from all sides about how ambitious the proposal is.
Wednesday 25th September 2019 - Power prices in the UK modelled their movement on UK gas with support for spot and October contracts while longer dated prices fell. A sell off in both coal and oil, coupled with softer gas and carbon pricing pressured both German and Nordic power. Today, power prices are down further on general commodity weakness and a bearish mood in the broader markets on trade and the European economic outlook. At the UN, US President Trump blasted China on trade and is teeing up a carrousel of sanctions it may deploy against the EU on the back of damages the WTO is expected to disclose from illegal EU aid for Airbus. Further market weakness is expected today.
Thursday 26th September 2019 - Power prices followed feedstocks to the downside yesterday, with UK power dealing lower with gas and carbon, while German and Nordic power sold down with coal, carbon and a bearish energy complex. A rise in wind power production is expected over the weekend in German and the Nordics as production wanes in the UK. Today, power is finding some modest support from an early uptick in coal and carbon while gas trades sideways. Oil is also sideways as some good news on the trade front is encouraging optimism. China and Japan will by more farm products from the US while President Trump is signalling trade deals could be getting closer.
Thursday 26th September 2019 - Gas prices were down uniformly in the UK yesterday, spot price weakness pulled at the curve with near dated contracts falling further than longer dated ones. Much the same for the continent, spot price driven weakness, coupled with bearish sentiment from the broader energy market which saw, oil, coal, power and carbon all being dealt lower. Today, the system is balanced, temperatures remain forecasted above normal for the 15-day outlook, stocks are high, and flows have improved. gas is trading flat to the previous close in early trade action.
Friday 27th September 2019 - Spot power prices tilted lower yesterday as demand remained low into the weekend, while curve prices moved higher with some moderate gains in feedstocks, gas, coal and oil. Today, prices remain sideways, to slightly down for the inputs to power prices. Carbon and oil are down, while gas and coal are trading tight to the previous close in early action. The End of September will bring the close of the October, Q4-19 and Winter-19 contracts and with their expiry a more concentrated focus on weather as the market moves into the winter. With a relatively normal outlook for the first 10 days of October demand should be soft as the winter starts.
Monday 30th September 2019 - Power prices in the UK resisted the gravitational pull of lower gas and carbon prices to close out the session flat, support for the front end of the market came from the spot. In Germany weaker gas and carbon prices dealt a blow to prices on the curve while demand lifted the spot, the Nordics were lifted from the front end as well marking marginal gains. This morning, spot prices continue to rise in the power markets supporting the front end of the UK, German and Nordic power curves, coal, gas and carbon are flat to slightly down which will pressure the longer dated contracts.
Market Comments October
Tuesday 1st October 2019 - UK power was dealt a setback yesterday in the second half of the session, losing value with gas and carbon, as oil fell below $60/bbl. on renewed trade fears and concerns of a slowing global economy. By contrast, the Nordics made gains across the board while the German power market was stable in the face of declining feedstock values and lower cost carbon credits. A drop in temperatures for the Nordics and a little early chill in the UK are likely to support spot prices in the coming days. This morning, power prices are down with falling gas, coal and carbon as the winter season has started without the winter demand.
Wednesday 2nd October 2019 - Power prices increased in the UK following on the heels of gas and carbon moves, while German power was mostly flat, and the Nordics made minor gains. Additional evidence of a waning global economy hit stock markets across the globe, pushed oil down and spread more bearish concerns to the energy markets. Gains were limited and driven mostly by spot demand on the back of a drop in temperatures. This morning, losses on power are modest and driven by a retracement in coal and carbon with only moderate help from gas in early trading.
Thursday 3rd October 2019 - UK power prices reflected the moves in the NBP gas market, moderate spot market strength contrasted by curve weakness. It was much the same across the rest of the power market with lower coal, gas and carbon prices Nordic and German power contracts shed value. This morning, feedstocks are trading relatively flat to the previous close, Nordic and German power are down slightly while UK power is dealing slightly higher in this volume. Markets continue to weigh the economic slowdown and stock markets selling down against more localized commodity demand, currently temperatures are providing some modest support against a mostly bearish backdrop.
Friday 4th October 2019 - UK power prices tracked the gas market yesterday to the downside, aided by a sell-off in carbon. In Germany, power contracts were dealt lower on the curve with weaker coal and carbon, while the Nordics were the most resilient, holding more value only dealing lower on the calendar contracts. This morning, feedstocks are trading flat to the previous close, temperature forecasts are unchanged with below seasonal conditions in the Nordics and Germany that are anticipated to pass by next week. UK and German power contracts are trading flat to the close while the Nordics have made some minor gains in early action.
Monday 7th October 2019 - Power prices in the UK were dealt shorter on Friday, falling with carbon while gas prices were broadly unchanged, by contrast, below average temperatures on the continent and in the Nordic Region lifted prices from the spot out to the forward curve. Forecasts for the balance of October are seasonal with no below normal temperatures expected until November, wind power output should be robust this week, tapering to the end of the 15-day outlook. This morning, prices are down in the UK following softer gas prices, German power is down with coal and carbon while the Nordics are following the German market to the downside.
Tuesday 8th October 2019 - Power prices dropped in the UK coming under pressure from UK gas, particularly on the spot where increased wind and the mild temperature combined to give prices a thrashing. Curve contracts fell following weak spot prices and the bearish market unease coming from global trade tensions and an economic slowdown in Europe. This morning, power prices are bouncing back slightly with some gains in oil and an up tick in stock markets, the rest of the commodity complex is trading sideways in early trade action.
Wednesday 9th October 2019 - Power prices in the UK followed gas, softening on the spot while rising on the curve, getting most of their boost from a drop in the pound. On the continent power prices fell as forecasts were revised warmer, albeit less windy. Finally, Nordic power dropped on the return to normal or above seasonal temperatures. This morning, gas is dealing slightly lower while coal and carbon are flat, power prices are down modestly in the UK with gas while on the continent the picture is mixed with contracts trading very tight to the previous close, Nordic power is looking to Germany for direction and is trading in a similar manner.
Thursday 10th October 2019 - Power prices were very weak in the respective spot markets as temperatures rise and wind power output produces near the top of its capacity range. Forward forecasts show a fall in wind output with improved temperatures which should keep spot prices tame. Curve trade saw prices climb modestly with coal, gas and oil while carbon followed the feedstocks. This morning, gas and carbon are down slightly along with oil, coal is flat to the previous close. Power prices are mostly unchanged with only some minor selling interest on the spot.
Friday 11th October 2019 - Power prices remained very weak in the spot markets across Europe and the UK, while a jump in feedstocks, driven by an attack on an Iranian oil tanker lifted curve contracts. This morning, the fallout continues with markets trending higher together with oil, gas, coal and carbon are boosting power prices along the curve, while bearish fundamentals force spot prices lower. The divide between spot and forward highlights the risk premium that remains in the markets compared to the fundamental reality of supply and demand.
Monday 14th October 2019 - Power prices rolled on Friday together with strong EUAs and improved fuel prices. The price for EUAs rose by more than 1€ after progress in the BREXIT negotiations increased the chance for a deal before 31st October. The move in UK Power was weakened by a significant move in the GBP/EUR rate. At the end of the day, Sum-20 added 0.46 £/MWh. The price for German power recovered together with stronger emissions and coal prices. Cal-20 closed the day at 48.27 €/mWh with a plus of 1.31 €/mWh. Nordic followed the broader energy complex and closed more than 1€ above Thursdays settlement prices.
Tuesday 15th October 2019 - Power prices in the UK followed gas yesterday, gaining on the prompt and spot while longer dated contracts retreated, German and Nordic power followed the same pattern. This morning, forecasts remain at or above seasonal normal for the 15-day outlook, making October a bit of a dud for winter weather. Oil is dealing lower in early trading while coal, gas and carbon have ticked slightly higher. Power prices are up because of feedstocks while the moves made have been marginal in early trading.
Wednesday 16th October 2019 - Power markets were driven by carbon prices yesterday as the market gained over a euro on positive BREXIT news which has been a key factor in prices as of late. Increases were across the board in the Nordics while gains in Germany were focused on the curve with a drop in the spot. UK power was torn between lower gas with a stronger pound and a carbon rally, the result was prices that were flat day on day. This morning, coal is dealing poorer, while oil and gas are more or less unchanged, carbon is pulling back slightly with the pound on some BREXIT noise, power prices are flat to slightly lower in early trade action.
Thursday 17th October 2019 - Power prices went up yesterday following carbon, despite falling prices for feedstocks like gas and coal, the moves were greatest on the continent and in the Nordics, less so in the UK where gas prices played a more important role in driving value. This morning, the pound is down, and the carbon traders have sold down the pollution credit prices, in turn pressuring power traders to reverse course on energy gains. Gas, coal and oil are all dealing slightly lower adding to a bearish start to the day.
Friday 18th October 2019 - Power prices fell yesterday, driven lower in the UK by falling carbon and gas, much the same for Germany and the Nordics. This morning, feedstock prices have picked up on a short UK gas system, coal and gas are dealing higher while carbon is trading lower. Despite the improved cost of both gas and coal, power prices are flat in Germany and the Nordics, while UK power is dealing higher in early trading. BREXIT noise around the DUP and vote counting are likely to dominate currency markets and in turn carbon and power trading today, thus far movement is minimal.
Monday 21st October 2019 - Power prices dropped in the UK, shaping up along with the moves in NBP gas, gains in the spot and a weaker curve. By contrast, German and Nordic power prices gained from spot to longer dated contracts gaining on support from coal, in spite of falling gas, oil and carbon, the minor gains underline indecision more than bullishness. This morning, power prices are up with gains in coal and gas, carbon is mostly unchanged in early trade action. The potential for the first cold snap of the winter is lingering in some of the morning weather runs, confirmation is not there yet but the market is trading up in anticipation, save for the UK spot which is down with gas.
Tuesday 22nd October 2019 - The UK power market followed its dominant feedstock, natural gas, to the downside while the rest of the power markets made gains in the face of weaker feedstocks and carbon, for the continental player weather was the deciding factor for pricing. This morning, gas has bounced and with it, UK power, coal and carbon fell and gains for Germany and the Nordics are being held to a minimum, with some small losses on some of the longer dated contracts. the forecasted drop in temperatures, expected for the start of November will bring some support to spot power prices, as of today, indications for the duration of the cold weather remain uncertain.
Wednesday 23rd October 2019 - Power prices continued to dip in the UK and across the continent and in the Nordics as the price for feedstocks weakened and carbon sank. This morning, weather forecasts have been revised slightly milder, while a pick-up in wind production into the end of this week should put pressure on spot prices. Power prices have already fallen sharply in Germany, while the Nordic and UK power markets are following with minor losses in early trade action.
Thursday 24th October 2019 - Power prices in the UK fell with gas and carbon yesterday, German power was also weakened by softer coal and gas on top of the dropping carbon. By contrast, the Nordics retained their support in the face of increase precipitation, wind and the fall in carbon credit prices. This morning, the commodity complex is bearish, coal, oil and gas are all marginally in the red, carbon is lower and bearish sentiment continues with the French regulator declaring formally there will be no need to halt nuclear facilities due to concerns over boiler welds. Contracts are dealing lower on the news, weak carbon and bearish feedstocks in early trade action.
Friday 25th October 2019 - Power prices in the UK followed gas and carbon to make some moderate gains, while German and Nordic power prices agreed to disagree. German power fell on increasing wind, while the Nordics just moved up with carbon. This morning, German power is dealing lower, Nordic is flat along with the UK which is unchanged in early trade action. The feedstocks are flat to slightly lower and oil is down slightly from its close. Weather forecasts are a touch milder which has taken some of the momentum out of the move from yesterday, but weather forecasts are as volatile as weather itself, sometimes more, and they will drive sentiment as winter takes hold.
Monday 28th October 2019 - Power prices were dealt lower in the UK on Friday following the changes in the NBP gas market. Dwindling prices for both gas and coal, along with a drop in carbon dealt German power contracts lower, finally, Nordic power dropped on mild temperatures and lower carbon. This morning, feedstocks, gas, coal and oil are dealing lower, carbon is down, and weather predictions have been revised warmer. Power is trading down across Europe and the UK as the market absorbs the new bearish inputs.
Tuesday 29th October 2019 - UK power bulls were dealt a blow yesterday, as both gas and carbon traded lower and temperatures forecasts were expected to be milder. Much the same for the continent and the Nordics, a warmer forecast run, coupled with bearish feedstocks, gas and coal, sent prices lower. This morning, power prices have retraced part of their losses on the back of gains in carbon. The picture for feedstocks is mixed with coal and gas trading sideways, while oil is down adding some bearish sentiment.
Wednesday 30th October 2019 - Power prices in the UK followed on the weakness of the NBP gas market, despite a modest spring back in the price for carbon credits, by difference both the Nordic and German power markets made gains following coal and carbon to the upside despite a bearish overall commodity market. This morning, power prices are up in all markets following sustained minor gains in carbon and coal while gas is trading around its prior close. Oil is dealing lower on expectations for a week-on-week build in US stock piles while over in Europe the talk is all about a snap election in the UK in early December to decide on the fate of the ruling party and by proxy, the direction BREXIT will take ahead of the latest deadline.
Thursday 31th October 2019 - Power prices were mixed across Europe and the UK by the close of trading yesterday. German and UK contracts generally, traded lower on softer coal and gas pricing, retaining some support from carbon while Nordic power was supported by carbon despite milder temperatures. This morning, carbon is up and with it German and Nordic power prices. Gas is mixed in early action and UK power has not yet found direction, however after days of weaker prices a retracement is possible. Stock market gains mask slowing economies in Europe, France and Spain supported 0.1% growth last quarter while Germany likely entered a recession.
Market Comments November
Friday 1st November 2019 - Power prices increased in the UK yesterday, following the rise in NBP gas while on the continent German power fell with carbon, Nordic power followed the German market in sympathy. This morning, gas prices are up on a tighter supply/demand balance, coal and oil are up slightly, while carbon is following the feedstocks higher. The power inputs are making this an early Friday buy day for traders, many of whom will be happy to close winning trades by buying back their short positions. Looking ahead to next week temperatures are around normal to slightly below which should give some support to spot prices, however, increased wind output will likely keep a lid on gains.
Monday 4th November 2019 - Power prices gained on Friday following feedstocks, gas in the UK and coal in Germany and the Nordics. Weather has helped to support prices with cooler more seasonal weather, lower wind and precipitation to dampen the bearish mood. Today, power is trading sideways to slightly lower in Germany, while the UK and the Nordics are dealing slightly higher. Oil is down, coal is sideways gas is up and carbon is flat. Stock markets are buoyant on hopes for positive movement in US/China trade talks and the IPO for Saudi Aramco.
Tuesday 5th November 2019 - Power prices in the UK rallied with the gains in gas and carbon, while German and Nordic prices diverged with dry conditions and stronger carbon lifting the latter at the expense of losses on the former. Today, feedstocks are a touch softer, gas on a swing to oversupplied from undersupplied, coal and carbon following gas, while oil is tracking higher on positive rumblings on the US/China trade front and new highs in the US Dow Jones Industrial Index. Power prices continue to make minor gains in early trade action across all markets
Wednesday 6th November 2019 - Power prices made gains across all the European markets and the UK, buoyed by gains in feedstocks like coal and gas, while cooler temperatures and below seasonal normal renewable output firmed spot markets. This morning, power prices are coming under pressure from falling prices for feedstocks and weaker carbon. Weather forecasts are giving hints of a return to seasonal normal near the end of the 15-day outlook which is also encouraging the bears to get more aggressive. downside may be limited if the chilly temperatures continue for the balance of the weather outlook.
Thursday 7th November 2019 - Power prices sunk across all markets following feedstocks, gas and coal to the downside with compounding pressure from a sizeable drop in carbon below the 25 Euro support level. Today, power prices are up slightly with gains in carbon and oil in early trading, coal and gas are not yet offering support as they are trading flat day on day, save for gains on the spot, in early action. Stock markets have opened in positive territory China and the US discuss a phased roll back in trade tariffs.
Friday 8th November 2019 - Power prices in the UK followed gas making gains in the spot while curve prices softened, much the same across the rest of the market with both Germany and the Nordics making gains at the front while curve products saw value erosion. This morning, coal, oil and carbon are dealing lower while gas is stronger in the spot and unchanged on the curve. Power prices are slightly softer today with feedstocks and carbon despite cooler temperatures. Weather forecasts look to warm up slightly nearer to the end of the 15-day outlook, wind production remains well below seasonal normal.
Monday 11th November 2019 - UK power prices fell last week following gas from Monday to Friday to close the week down, despite cooler than normal temperatures for the time of year and low output from renewables. German power followed coal and carbon to the downside, while the Nordic market made gains on falling hydro levels, ignoring the negative market sentiment. Today, feedstock prices are showing a little life with minor gains in early trade action. Both coal and gas are positive, this coupled with gains in carbon are supporting the market; UK, German and Nordic power are all trading up thus far. Weather forecasts remain somewhat supportive with temperatures slightly below normal for the forthcoming week
Tuesday 12 November 2019 - UK power prices fell in line with the moves in the UK gas market, moving at odds with prices for power in both the Nordics and on the continent, which managed modest gains from carbon and falling production from renewables. Today carbon, coal and oil are up while gas is down, the feedstock divergence should move the UK lower while European power prices find support. In early trade action the market is doing just that. Broader support is unlikely to come without a return to strong winter conditions and forecasts remain moderate.
Wednesday 13th November 2019 - UK power prices fell in line with the moves in the UK gas market, power in both the Nordics and on the continent followed suit, only spot prices could sustain gains. This morning, carbon, coal, gas and oil are down, weak inputs in turn are producing softer power prices in the UK and in Europe. Broader support remains elusive, commodity markets are soft on caution around trade talks, while winter conditions and forecasts remain moderate
Thursday 14th November 2019 - Power prices were relatively flat with conflicting signals from softer feedstocks, NBP gas vs. minor gains in coal and carbon, even at the macro level the fight between rising oil and falling equities provided little clarity of sentiment. This morning, the market is broadly unchanged gas is a touch softer while power is up marginally, carbon is neutral. From the broader markets coal is down oil is up and equities are flat to slightly lower. Weather forecasts are looking milder for the coming week in the UK and Germany, while the Nordics are already enjoying temperatures above the seasonal normal, wind is expected to underwhelm for the 15-day outlook.
Friday 15th November 2019 -Power prices in the UK followed gas higher, making gains from the spot to the back of the curve, while on the continent German and Nordic power were driven down by carbon weakness, despite the strength in feedstocks like gas and coal. This morning, gas is dealing lower and along with carbon could put some pressure on UK power, German power is trading marginally lower in early action while the Nordics are up slightly on drier weather. oil continues to struggle to the upside despite another week of surprise builds in stockpiles in the US, a bell weather for global crude health.
Monday 18th November 2019 - Power prices rebounded on Friday in the UK following gas to the upside, shrugging off the modest losses in carbon, while on the continent the gains were a bit more mixed with only the spot showing clear direction. Today, coal is down, gas and carbon are down almost 0.5 of a euro each and weather forecasts have been revised to above seasonal normal for the 15-day outlook, mild weather should roll into December and with supplies of feedstocks still brimming. The energy complex is being sold off in all corners, save for oil which is holding gains above the 200day moving average, after closing above this level for the first time since the recent attacks on Saudi Arabia.
Tuesday 19th November 2019 - Power prices sank with feedstock pressure in the UK yesterday, weak coal and carbon pressured German and Nordic power prices as well. A drop in the price of oil as the commodity hits headwinds from growing US stocks and a slowing global economy cast a bearish pall over the markets, writ large. This morning, oil continues to struggle, coal is sideways while gas is flat to slightly up as is carbon. Weather forecasts retain above seasonal temperatures for the 15-Day outlook, albeit slightly cooler from yesterday, wind forecasts have grown stronger which could drive spot weakness if it delivers. The Market maker window in the UK has been suspended and with that the market makers have exited, thus far liquidity remains about the same during the two, 1-hour windows, however bid/offer spreads have widened slightly.
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