- Market Comments January
Tuesday 2nd January 2018 - Power prices in the UK and Europe assembled into the close of 2017 making very minor gains as the direction of the feedstocks gave conflicting signals to the market. Gas fell while coal and oil made minor gains, carbon prices also rallied into the close gaining around 20 cents. This morning, prices are almost as scarce as traders in the market, with what little is out there we see the German power market down on high wind and weak demand, both spot and curve are dealing lower, the UK power market is mostly unchanged and the Nordics are being supported by a rare dry spell. Cooler temperatures forecasts from the 5th of January onwards are also providing support.
Wednesday 3rd January 2018 - Power prices took a dip in the UK and Germany yesterday on the back of a dip in gas prices coupled with an over supply in both gas and power from mild weather and increased wind power production. This morning, power prices are a touch softer driven lower in the UK with gas prices while improved wind production and a retracement in carbon prices have pushed down both Nordic and German power prices. The greatest losses have been focused at the front of the curve and in the spot while longer dated contracts are mostly unchanged in early trade action.
Thursday 4th January 2018 - A return to work after the holidays and declining wind production led to gains in spot prices. On the respective curves changes were too modest to be indicative of any direction in the market and power traders were confused as feed stocks and oil went in different directions. Weather forecasts have been revised a bit milder, the result has been a drop in power prices in the UK, Germany and even the Nordics which are currently drier than normal. Longer dated contracts are mostly unchanged as oil and coal have made some minor gains on the day.
Friday 5th January 2018 - Friday 5th January 2018 - Generally warm weather, weak gas, coal and carbon sent down power prices across Europe yesterday. The front mostly taking the hardest hit as weather was an important driver, but further dated products also came off. Europe will see a drop in temperatures over the next days, but it is mainly in the UK and Scandinavia we will see below normal temps. And most forecasts point to a warm up again during next week, making the cold snap rather short lived. This is bearish for the European energy complex, and therefore also for power. Today forecasts have turned even warmer, and power is being sold off in the front. Coal hasn’t really started yet, so there isn’t a lot of new inputs to the curve.
Monday 8th January 2018 - Falling input from weather for most of Europe and from gas sent down the power in the front on Friday. Despite stronger coal, the curve failed to close in positive territory. For the UK a stronger pound also helped to the bearish sentiment. We are in the middle of a cold spell, but this seems to primarily affect the UK and Scandinavia, while the rest of Europe in general looks normal to mild. Forecasts have turned a tad colder since Friday, and we see the front end of the power curve up this morning. Coal has also traded up a notch, supporting the power curve as well.
Tuesday 9th January 2018 - It was stated yesterday that Germany will no longer aim to reach its earlier announced 40% reduction in carbon dioxide by 2020. Players had until this announcement anticipated a phase-out of cheap lignite and hard coal and build a premium into the far end of the curve due to a substitution towards more expensive power generation. The announcement yesterday is now believed to postpone the phaseout of lignite and hard coal and prices in Germany corrected almost 1 Euro down on Cal-20 and 21. Theoretically the decision should also affect the carbon market in an upward direction since more CO2 is now likely to be emitted. Emissions opens up this morning and together with rising gas prices, power prices are supported across the board.
Wednesday 10th January 2018 - Strong contributions from weather and gas pulled up power contracts across all of Europe yesterday, with the front end taking the lead. It is getting colder these days and the wind is easing off, supporting spot prices across all countries. According to forecasts, temperatures are still going down the coming days for Germany and the UK, and with low wind, spot prices are expected to move even higher. Forecasts are a bit warmer today compared to yesterday, giving a bearish signal to the front end of the power curve, and coal is also coming off from the beginning.
Thursday 11th January 2018 - Yesterday coal took a hit, falling 0.79 $/ton for front cal. This pulled down the curve of continental power despite strong gas on the curve. For UK power the bearish coal dampened the effect of the bullish gas, but wasn’t enough to counter this. Gas was up on the announcement that NAM, the operator of Groningen will propose production cuts as a consequence of the large earthquake Monday. Power markets are slightly up in the front this morning as weather forecasts are slightly colder. For further dated products the market will be looking for coal and gas. The direction of gas today will depend upon if or what information the market will receive about the proposed production cuts at Groningen.
Friday 12th January 2018 - Prices for coal have seeded in value since it posted new highs on Monday this week. This sent down power contracts across Europe yesterday, where gas prices on continental hubs were also down. This morning, weather has taken a turn to the colder for most of Europe. The American weather model points to a significant cold spell over most of Europe. The European weather model is not as bullish, but it has sparked a buying frenzy in the front, where German power is up 0.75 €/MWh for Feb-18. Gas and coal is also up, with gas being supported by the same weather change as the power market.
Monday 15th January 2018 - Power prices dropped on Friday in spot markets in the UK and Europe on wind output, while longer dated contracts made increases with the underlying feedstocks. Gas, coal and oil drove up prices and bullish sentiment however gains were modest. This morning, a reversal in the outlook for cold weather to continued warm and windy conditions has pressured the markets for feedstocks and for power itself. All the power markets are being dealt lower as traders readjust their pricing expectations to a continuation of mild conditions.
Tuesday 16th January 2018 - Power prices were lower yesterday across the forward curves of the UK. The moves and unpredictability in weather forecasts drove the drops in prices coupled with the moves in natural gas and carbon prices. on a pick-up in demand as renewable production dipped. This morning, prices have retraced. By contrast, spot prices made gains in all three markets some of yesterday's losses as the latest weather forecast runs have flipped to slightly cooler. Gas and coal have made very minor gains in early trading, contributing to the gains in power prices.
Wednesday 17th January 2018 - UK power prices fell yesterday following a sell down in NBP gas prices. This morning, power prices are down across the board as temperature forecasts have been revised warmer and wind output is expected to remain high. Furthermore, gas and coal prices have fallen, giving more reason for traders to deal power prices to the downside.
Thursday 18th January 2018 - Power prices made increases on the spot yesterday in the UK as temperatures and wind are dipping in short term before improving over the coming week. By contrast, curve prices in the UK and in Germany fell, following NBP gas, API coal and warm weather forecasts. This morning, Prices are down across the board and across all power markets on falling feedstock prices and revised forecasts for warmer and windier weather.
Friday 19th January 2018 - Power prices varied yesterday across the UK and Europe, weak gas prices sent the spot lower on UK power while longer dated contracts were mostly unchanged. This morning, prices are up from yesterday with power markets making gains on the back of slightly stronger coal and the increased price for carbon credits.
Monday 22nd January 2018 - On Friday spot power prices made improvements on cool temperatures and low wind production, by contrast curve prices in the UK dipped on the mild forecasts as did prices in the Nordics which also came under pressure from a robust hydro balance. This morning, power prices are softer in Germany while being closer to unchanged in the Nordics and the UK which have only traded in thin volume. Weather forecasts are mostly unchanged with a slight hint of cooler weather, slightly below normal, in the first week of February.
Tuesday 23rd January 2018 - Power prices in the UK were mostly sideways, as coal, oil and gas all made modest gains. By contrast, spot prices were dealt lower as demand faded in the face of mild temperatures and robust wind production. This morning, prices have made minor gains on strength in feedstocks like coal and gas, coupled with concerns of a drop in temperatures below normal at the end of the 15-day forecast. Spot prices remain rather weak today, as temperatures are still expected to climb for the next couple of days and wind output remains strong.
Wednesday 24th January 2018 - Power prices fell yesterday. Very mild weather and renewables production in Germany and the Nordics pressured spot prices and sent curves lower as risk was taken out of the market. Falling coal and gas prices aided the decline while, carbon which has been on a tear as of late, provided some resistance as it gained a quarter of a euro. This morning, prices are weaker in the UK which is following NBP gas to the downside.
Thursday 25th January 2018 - Power prices dropped in the UK yesterday following the fall in gas prices despite gains in oil and carbon. This morning, coal and gas have rebounded slightly putting UK power in positive territory, German power remains weak and is trading down slightly on the very mild temperatures while the Nordics are broadly unchanged with the very front making gains on an expected drop in wind.
Friday 26th January 2018 - Power prices made improvements in the spot yesterday across Europe and the UK as wind output began to decline and the mild temperatures hit their peak and have begun to recede. This morning, gas prices are up and coal remains steady, oil is mostly flat. Weather forecasts continue to indicate a possible drop in temperatures in early February which has also helped to send the markets higher in early trade action. The UK has suggested it would be interested in remaining in the EU ETS, carbon trading scheme/market even after BREXIT, good news for the program.
Monday 29th January 2018 - Power prices varied in trading on Friday with the UK power market taking a cue from the NBP gas market and shedding some value while the German and Nordic power markets moved up with coal and a on gains in the spot price. This morning, gas and coal prices are stronger which is providing a lift to German power prices, the largest gains have been at the front of the curve as temperatures and wind are expected to fall in the coming days. The UK power market will track gain in gas, it is slow to open with bids and offers being quite wide.
Tuesday 30th January 2018 - Yesterday’s power prices were down across all markets for future delivery, from the front month to longer dated seasons and calendar contracts. Weakness in the UK power was driven by falling prices in the NBP gas market coupled with weakness in the broader energy complex, which saw oil lead the way down for coal, gas and power. Power prices should be in positive territory this morning in the UK following minor gains in gas while German power is up at the front with cooler forecasts and slightly lower on the far end of the curve. The Nordics are slightly wetter and are, on balance mostly unchanged.
Wednesday 31st January 2018 - Power prices fell across the board in all markets and on all contracts yesterday, driven by weakness in their respective feedstocks, such as NBP gas in the UK and API2 coal in Germany. Weather forecasts showing generally normal conditions for the time of year plus very weak coal prices, down almost $2.25/ton were the primary drivers, however a dip in carbon and a sell-off on major stock markets added to the bearish sentiment. This morning, the market will feel the whiplash as forecasts have swung towards cold for next week and traders are scrambling to cover short positions. Gas prices have moved up with the forecasts and UK, German and Nordic power are all up in early trading.
- Market Comments February
Thursday 1st February 2018 - Power prices recovered yesterday, following on a forecasted drop in temperatures that will be accompanied with a sharp drop in wind production. The market shrugged off and almost $2 drop in the price of coal, taking the 2-day losses on the commodity to more than $4. Prices for UK power followed the rally in the NBP gas market while the Nordics made gains only at the front while the curve remained weak on a strong hydro balance. This morning, the market is up further on higher gas and coal prices coupled with concerns over the Groningen production announcement and, of course, the cold weather forecast. Several traders are already discussing the possibility of a blocking high pressure system which could keep the cold over Europe for an extended period of time.
Friday 2nd February 2018 - Power prices rose yesterday on forecasted cold temperatures, less wind and drier conditions across Europe and the UK. Longer dated contracts were less affected because of falling carbon, coal and gas prices. This morning, power prices in the UK are finding some support from the gas however, the slightly more moderating forecasts could be bringing a bit of weakness into prices. Spot prices are strong and remain supported as wind production and temperatures begin to fall starting tomorrow.
Monday 5th February 2018 - Spot power prices made improvements across Europe and the UK on Friday, as cooler temperatures raised demand and renewable generation dropped. This morning, stock markets are down and commodity markets are also weak on bearish sentiment and on expectations for a warm up in temperatures next week. Power prices are lower in all markets following feedstocks like gas and coal to the downside. Support remains on the spot as the mercury dips to its lowest point this week, today.
Tuesday 6th February 2018 - Power prices dropped yesterday in the UK following a fall in the UK’s NBP gas market and moderating temperatures in European weather forecasts. This morning, the sell-off continues as global equities markets head into melt down, coal and oil prices slip further, temperature forecasts improve increasing the certainty of a warm-up and wind power forecasts ramp back up. The net result is lower prices across all power products and periods.
Wednesday 7th February 2018 - Power prices in the UK power made gains with NBP gas and a weaker pound. This morning, feedstock like coal and gas are moving in unison and much the same can be seen in the power markets. Prices are up in early trade action with the broader commodity complex and on a change in temperature forecasts to slightly cooler in the 10-15-day period. The market remains very sensitive to every change in the forecast runs and will continue to do so until the end of the season.
Thursday 8th February 2018 - Power prices rallied across all markets from spot to longer dated curve products on gains in coal and gas, despite a sizable drop in oil on increased US production. This morning, gas and coal prices are being dealt lower on moderating forecasts and confidence in a resolution of the Forties pipeline outage. Prices are falling for the UK, Germany and the Nordics from spot to the back end of the curve. The far end of the forecasts suggest temperatures will remain around normal out until the end of the month, further risk is likely to be removed in temperatures remain around normal into March.
Friday 9th February 2018 - Power markets took a beating yesterday across Europe and the UK falling with gas coal and oil. More mild weather and a pick-up in wind pressured the spot market. This morning, the UK power market is up with gas on the back of a short system and a few unplanned outages.
Monday 12th February 2018 - Power prices made improvements in most markets on Friday as nervous weather watchers decided to hedge exposure into the weekend as two competing narratives left trades uncertain whether forecasts would be colder on Monday. Oil prices were hit when US rig counts were announced to have risen by 26 active rigs to almost 800 a sign that US production could begin to grow even faster. This morning, power prices are slightly softer in the UK with a dip in gas, while German and Nordic prices are softer on generally mild weather with no current signs of a feared arctic blast.
Tuesday 13th February 2018 - Power prices were mixed yesterday in trade action, with the UK spot price out turning weak. The UK power curve rallied with gas. This morning, fuel inputs for power generation are all up, gas and coal have made gains in early trading driven by a colder outlook at the back of the forecasts coupled with drier conditions and a drop in wind power production. Carbon prices remain sturdy, stock markets and oil are mostly askew so power is trading weather and that is unmistakably bullish at the moment.
Wednesday 14th February 2018 - Power prices jumped up yesterday, following feedstocks like gas for UK power and coal for German power. From this weekend wind power production is forecast to drop decisively below normal while solar should pick up some of the lost production, colder temperatures, around 3-5 degrees below normal for NW Europe and the UK show no warm up as of yet and traders are hedging themselves against the volatility. This morning, temperatures forecasts are bit milder in the mid-term while remaining very cold at the end of the 15-day period, never the less prices have eased back slightly in the spot and front month contracts while longer dated contracts have made minor gains in early trade action.
Thursday 15th February 2018 - Power prices were varied yesterday, with the UK power market following NBP gas to the downside while German power fell at the front on mild weather and gained in the back on the move in coal. This morning, power prices are generally trending together across all markets following mild conditions to the downside in spot and on front contracts while the seasons and calendar products have made some gains on coal and gas moves to the upside.
Friday 16th February 2018 - Power prices generally followed their respective main feedstocks yesterday, with a healthy dose of influence from a change in the weather forecasts towards warmer temperatures. This morning, a different day and a different weather forecast. Expectations have swung 180 degrees with current model runs predicting temperatures to plummet, talk of a polar vortex and colder conditions than records set back in 1979 are making the headlines. Most traders will be unlikely to hold or take short positions over the weekend given the volatility of the weather forecasts so the day will be punctuated with hedging and short covering.
Monday 19th February 2018 - Power prices assembled on Friday, moving up with feedstock gains and on concerns of a protracted period of below normal temperatures. This morning, cold weather foreacsts have been confirmed from mid-week to the end of the 15-day period and the market has made further gains. The question for most traders is now how long the cold will last, with many talking about a blocking high which could keep the temperareatures below normla for many weeks to come, a possible repeat of March 2013.
Tuesday 20th February 2018 - Power prices ascended yesterday following a sharp rally in the two most crucial feedstocks, gas and coal, which boosted prices in the UK. This morning, coal prices are mostly flat and the cold weather remains confirmed and in place, so German prices are modestly up at the front and mostly unchanged at the back, UK power looks much the same, since the development in gas, on the curve, is similar to coal. the Nordics are up more than their neighbour as the cold dry forecasts draws down hydro stocks.
Wednesday 21st February 2018 - Power prices made gains in the UK yesterday on the back of cold weather forecasts and an upswing in the prices of the respective primary inputs, gas and coal. This morning, the power markets remain mostly supported with prices flat to slightly up at the very front ends of the respective curves while prices for contracts that make up the longer dated periods are trading at a very minor discount day on day. Coal has traded down a touch in thin volume while gas prices are slightly softer on the front season in early action.
Thursday 22nd February 2018 - Power prices continued their climb yesterday following on gains in the gas market spot price and a steady uptick in power demand as we head towards what some are calling SNOW-pocalypse and the freeze of the century. This morning the weather forecasts are mostly unchanged, however the market remains very nervous buying an price dips and pushing prices back up to levels near yesterday's highs in the UK power market while German and Nordic power markets are trading down on weaker coal prices.
Friday 23rd February 2018 - Power prices were generally frailer yesterday, trading down in Germany and in Nordics on a modest amount of profit taking during this bull-run and a small up-tick in wind output. The UK, by contrast, which derives most of its direction and a large portion of its power from natural gas was dealt higher with the NBP, however, the gains were greater in gas than in power. This morning, the NBP is soaring and UK power is will likely follow when traders get the confidence to put up a bid or offer.
Monday 26th February 2018 - Power prices assembled across Europe moving with feedstocks, in the UK the rally in NBP gas boosted spot power prices by more than 5€. Improvements in coal were also strong but much over shadowed by the swings in gas prices and concerns over the weather forecasts. This morning, the markets have turned sharply, pulling a 180 degree turn in pricing with a change in forecasts towards a return towards more normal temperatures by next week. Wind power is expected to be above normal in major markets while solar is beginning to remerge into the supply mix with clear skies.
Tuesday 27th February 2018 - Power prices were distributed lower on Monday after weather forecasts confirmed a warm-up late this week and into early next week. The change in tone for temperatures sent gas and coal spiralling downward taking longer dated power contracts in the UK. It was a mixed bag in the spot market where there were some gains and losses, however the moves were somewhat muted by increased renewable generation against the frigid temperatures. This morning, prices are mixed, gas has rebounded in the UK taking the spot and near-term curve products higher, with only minor discounts appearing on the calendar products in early trade action.
Wednesday 28th February 2018 - Power prices encouraged with feedstock yesterday and in predictable fashion the rally in gas prices boosted prices for UK power. This morning we have hit record high (10-year) prices on spot gas and UK power is also up with this input, however not as much as gas due to strong wind power output. German power has not noticed the commotion in gas and UK power as prices have all been dealt lower with coal while the Nordics are up only modestly.
- Market Comments March
Thursday 1st March 2018 - Power prices were a varied yesterday, UK power followed gas gaining in the spot while losing on the curve. This morning, the weather continues to cause havoc on NW Europe and the UK new highs in spot gas prices filter through to power.
Friday 2nd March 2018 - Power prices went confidently off in two directions yesterday with the UK power market roofing on record setting gas prices. Volatility was just in the spot with price changes on the curves being quite muted as attention was diverted from the longer dated contracts to the gong show at the front. This morning, prices are softer as gas and coal are coming off and the UK system is balanced. Temperatures have begun to warm-up and are expected to be close to normal by the weekend.
Monday 5th March 2018 - Power prices increased in the UK on Friday following the rise in gas prices as the market feared for uncertainty over the weekend. This morning, prices are down across all markets as the value in the spot have been cut and forward prices for gas and coal have fell. Weather forecasts have been revised to levels around or slightly above normal for all of NW Europe but the coal weather has come with the cost of lowered storages of gas which leaves little flexibility in the case of more coal.
Tuesday 6th March 2018 - Power prices were dealt lower in the UK on Monday following gas in the spot and weather for the longer-term value of the curve. This morning, UK power is a touch softer with gas while the Nordics are also slightly down on increasing precipitation in the latest forecast.
Wednesday 7th March 2018 - Power prices rallied in all markets yesterday from the front month to the far end of the curve on a big lift in gas followed with gains in coal and oil. Warming temperatures kept the spot prices from going up but fear over a return to cold weather, hinted at in the forecasts has made the market very nervous. This morning, power prices are slightly softer in the UK as gas prices are mostly flat to slightly lower while a drop in coal and improved precipitation has pressured German and Nordic power more convincingly down.
Thursday 8th March 2018 - Power prices progressed with fuels yesterday, marking up with UK gas. This morning, the market is up in all regions following on gains in gas and coal while oil and temperatures are mostly unchanged. Gains in carbon have been steady which has supported the power market as traders believe more resolution is coming for the credit system.
Friday 9th March 2018 - Power prices rallied yesterday across Europe and the UK on the back of fears of another polar vortex and extreme weather event. UK power was hit hard to the upside with both the fear over cold weather and a rally in the gas market. This morning, the market continues to buy up the front end of the curve including spot prices covering risk ahead of the weekend. Coal prices are down while gas and carbon continue to make gains providing more upward lift to power prices.
Monday 12th March 2018 - Power prices improved across all markets on Friday as traders lifted contracts ahead of the weekend and concerns over an impending cold snap. Prices moves were more distinct at the front of the curves on the April and Q2-18 contracts. This morning, the cold snap has been confirmed and the market has moved sharply higher. Late season cold snaps can tend to both surprise and to cause some of the most pronounced reactions as flexibility in the power markets and commodity supplies can become strained by this time of the year.
Tuesday 13th March 2018 - Power prices rallied in the UK yesterday with gas and fear of cold weather. This morning, the forecasts are in agreement concerning a sharp drop in temperatures, however, they are now signalling a reasonable quick warm-up in the UK while on the continent the temperature may rise a bit more slowly. Gas and coal prices are bot down slightly in early trade, making prices for power in the UK German and the Nordics all a little bit more affordable today than yesterday.
Wednesday 14th March 2018 - Power prices fell yesterday with changes in the weather forecasts towards a milder outlook, coupled with a drop in gas prices. Support could be found for power from a slight gain in coal prices coupled with strength in carbon prices. This morning, power prices are down with coal and gas as well as on the back of more moderating weather forecasts which suggest the cold snap will be short lived.
Thursday 15th March 2018 - Power prices fell in the UK yesterday following on the heels of a drop in NBP gas prices and warmer forecasts. This morning, the power markets are a touch softer across all of Europe and the UK on softer coal prices and a confirmation across all forecasts that the cold snap will be relatively short lived. Despite the cold weather, the market is taking solace in the forecasts for a surprisingly high level of wind output at the same as the cold snap which is easing the nerves of traders.
Friday 16th March 2018 - Power prices were up in the UK yesterday following on the expected drop in temperatures coupled with a rally in gas prices. This morning, markets are up with gains in gas and slightly cooler forecasts, a return to more normal weather is expected by late next week, however a return to normal or above normal temperatures are not to be expected. With the exception of gas, underlying feedstocks and renewables are robust and are not providing much support to the markets, the moves are all about the temperatures.
Monday 19th March 2018 - Power prices in the UK were dealt lower on Friday, following the sell off in gas prices and the weakness in coal and carbon prices. This morning, power prices are trading around flat to the previous close as traders assess what the coming 2-week forecasts will bring and if winter is now behind us. Renewables are performing well during the cold and are expected to remain around normal in the weeks to come.
Tuesday 20th March 2018 - Power traded down across all of Europe with coal shedding another dollar on the front calendar contract. There is a slightly higher likelihood of another round of cold air in the beginning of April in today’s weather forecasts, but this has only had a limited impact on the power contract. With coal opening flat to yesterday, power also trades flat this morning across most contracts.
Wednesday 21st March 2018 - With all efforts moving up, power moved up across the curve yesterday. This morning carbon is at new highs, approaching 12 €/ton, while coal is down ½ $/ton. Gas is up though and the weather still looks mostly supportive for the front in particular. Power is up across the whole curve this morning.
Thursday 22nd March 2018 - Power prices ascended in the UK, driven in no small part by carbon which climbed over a euro in a single session. Increases in oil and gas played into strength in the European power markets as well but the moves in carbon are sparking the most interest. The UK is signalling that it may continue with the system after BREXIT which will give traders and businesses more confidence in the legitimacy of the market. This morning, power prices are sliding in the UK, gas is being dealt lower as is coal.
Friday 23rd March 2018 - UK power prices dropped yesterday, moving lower with gas and picking up bearish sentiment from the drop in coal and carbon prices. This morning, coal gas and carbon prices are all down and power prices across all three regions have been dealt lower as a consequence. Weather forecasts have come in slightly warmer albeit still below normal for a period of time next week, the individual runs continue to be erratic suggesting the confidence in any forecasts out more than 5-days is low in certainty.
Monday 26th March 2018 - Power prices varied on Friday, spot prices made improvements across Europe and the UK on a dip in temperatures and lower wind output, while near-by futures contracts were dealt lower on the back of a milder temperature outlook. This morning, gas and coal are being dealt lower on the back of milder temperatures and, dare we say an end to winter.
Tuesday 27th March 2018 - Yesterday’s power prices were in the red across all European markets and the UK on the back of moderating forecasts which hint at temperatures returning to the above side of normal. This morning, gas prices are dealing slightly lower while coal prices are up modestly and oil is unchanged. Power prices are a bit mixed with the UK trading a touch down while, while Germany and the Nordics are split with front-end weather driven weakness and modest support from coal on the longer dated products.
Wednesday 28th March 2018 - Power prices continued to increase on Tuesday following the sudden rally in emissions prices. Along with the emissions move, coal gas and oil all made gains boosting power prices across the region. This morning, power prices are more or less unchanged with the broader energy complex in thin trade action. As the long-weekend approaches and the Groningen gas production cut announcement looms traders and participants are taking a risk off approach.
Thursday 29th March 2018 - UK power prices were distributed lower yesterday during the second market maker window after gas, coal and carbon entered a sell-off. This morning, carbon prices have scraped back half of their losses which has boosted prices in Germany and the UK, feedstocks, gas and coal, are also in positive territory driven in part by power and carbon and in part by cooler forecasts in the UK and hedging against the Groningen production cap announcement expected later today. The volume and interest is quiet today as the market liquidity has been declining towards the holiday long-weekend.
- Market Comments April
Tuesday 3rd April 2018 - Power prices closed strong into the final trading days of winter as the Ap-18, Q2-18 and Sum-18 contracts have all expired and we enter the 'summer' delivery period. This morning, coal, gas and carbon prices are down on the back of weather forecasts which have been revised warmer over the Easter holiday weekend. Stock markets and oil are also lower adding to the bearish tone in the markets. the UK is offered lower but has yet to trade with only thin volumes currently on offer. Carbon is also down day on day which is further adding to bearish sentiment.
Wednesday 4th April 2018 - Today, gas, coal and carbon are all in positive territory and power is being led higher by the energy complex. Weather forecasts are oscillating towards below normal temperatures next week which is also providing lift to contracts.
Thursday 5th April 2018 - Power prices were mixed yesterday with only the Nordic market making substantial gains, in Germany minor losses were taken with softer coal and carbon prices while a minor bump in UK gas prices supported UK power, however this was limited to the front-end of the market. This morning, coal, gas, carbon and oil are all down slightly in early trade action. Temperature forecasts have been revised a touch warmer and stock markets are in better shape as the talk of trade wars goes from a boil to a robust simmer. The pound is up slightly vs. the euro and the dollar, talk of a reintroduction of sanctions by the US against Iran could boost oil prices another $5 meaning lingering risks and surprizes are still likely this summer.
Friday 6th April 2018 - Power prices moved in line with feedstocks yesterday, down in the UK with gas and carbon. This morning, prices are softer today from weather at the front of the respective curves while lower prices for gas, coal, oil and carbon are putting pressure on longer dated contracts. The downside for contracts is expected to be driven by the weather, and how quickly gas storages begin to refill allowing for further downside to feedstocks.
Monday 9th April 2018 - Power prices were strong in the spot across Europe and the UK on Friday, making improvements on a very poor performance from the renewables sector. This morning, power prices are trading mostly flat to Friday's close with only minor losses at the front of the price curve in spot and front month contracts which are reacting to the prolongation of above normal temperatures and an expected pick up in wind output in the next few days. Supportive coal prices are expected to keep any downside limited.
Tuesday 10th April 2018 - Power prices rallied with feedstocks and carbon yesterday, gains in gas moved the UK. The gains in futures contracts were not matched in the spot, were more mild conditions and a pick-up in wind appear set to bring more low cost power to the market. This morning, Carbon, oil and coal remain in positive territory making further, albeit more modest gains in early trade action. Weather forecasts are coming in even warmer than yesterday, with modest improvements in wind and solar production expected.
Wednesday 11th April 2018 - Power prices increased across the board in the UK yesterday with gains in the spot and an up-tick in curve prices with the broader commodities complex. This morning, power prices are flat to slightly softer in a minor retracement after days of stable improvements following from moves in the feedstocks. Temperature forecasts continue to show a rise to well above normal for all of Europe and the UK by next week which should reduce demand and increase solar production, wind production is expects around normal to slightly below.
Thursday 12th April 2018 - Power prices trailed gas yesterday in the UK rallying most in the spot while the curve gained with gas almost one-for-one. This morning, prices are wavering above and below the previous close on the curves as power traders watch the feedstocks for directional input, spot prices are a bit firmer in Germany and the Nordics in early trade action while the UK spot has yet to transact.
Friday 13th April 2018 - Power prices were mixed yesterday, with the UK and the Nordics trending to the downside, driven by increasing temperatures next week for both regions coupled with softer gas prices in the UK and slightly cheaper coal. In Germany prices ticked up slightly despite the modest down move in coal, a rise in CO2 prices coupled with a weakening Euro was enough to close a touch higher. This morning, coal gas and carbon are all a touch higher only oil is slightly off. Thus, the price for power in all markets has risen from yesterday’s close and appears set to close out the week with the greatest weekly gain since 2014.
Monday 16th April 2018 - Power prices rallied with feedstocks on Friday, UK power gained with NBP gas. This morning, the power markets are opening trading close to the respective closes from Friday. Oil and carbon are trading slightly down, while gas and coal are mostly flat in early action. Well above normal weather is expected for the next 5-10 days across the UK before temperatures return closer to seasonal norms. The UK will get some support from a short gas system today.
Tuesday 17th April 2018 - UK power prices slipped yesterday, falling almost 4£ in the spot with the balance of the curve moving into modest negative session-on-session territory. This morning, gas, coal and carbon prices are trading slightly lower while oil prices are up modestly. Power prices are down across the German and Nordic power curves with the UK yet to trade outside of the day-ahead which is off over 1£ in early action.
Wednesday 18th April 2018 - Power prices repeated in all markets yesterday, following the two most important feedstocks, coal and gas, to the downside. This morning, gas for both the UK and on the continent, is trading close to the previous day's close while both coal and oil are in modestly positive territory. The weather forecasts are warm and above normal for the 10-day period before the come down to around normal, the last 5 days of the 15-day forecasts show temperatures are around or even slightly below normal with low wind and solar, this will provide support if it should materialize.
Thursday 19th April 2018 - UK power prices rallied with NBP gas prices yesterday, a modest rebound in carbon prices and a fall in the pound. This morning, gas is up and so is UK power, German power remains weak at the front of the curve and supported at the back while the Nordics are up on drier conditions and strength in coal and German power.
Friday 20th April 2018 - Power prices dipped in markets across the UK on Thursday on a combination of strong solar output and very warm conditions. This morning, NBP is up on a short system which is driving UK power to the upside. Carbon prices dropped almost half a euro yesterday before regaining some ground to close 40 cents lower, carbon is trading just slightly down this morning.
Monday 23rd April 2018 - Power prices deviated on Friday between the UK and the continent, with UK power reflecting NBP gas, weakened spot and sturdier curve, while both Germany and the Nordics showed the reverse, increased spot prices and falling curve values, carbon was the biggest loser on the day dragging the continental power markets lower, while coal was flat and the euro gained against the pound. This morning, gas prices are a touch laxer in the spot market and on the front of the curve while oil and coal are more-or-less trading flat to Friday’s close. Carbon is dealing down about 20 cents. Forecasts are expected to be around normal for this week with good wind production expected for most of the work week.
Tuesday 24th April 2018 - Power prices made gains in the UK yesterday following on the strength in the NBP gas market and bullish sentiment from the coal and oil markets. This morning, gas and coal are in positive territory, while UK power is up.
Wednesday 25th April 2018 - UK power prices were distributed slightly lower yesterday following NBP gas prices to the downside, the greatest weakness was at the front of the curve mirroring the moves on the NBP. This morning, UK power is trading tight to the previous close following the lead of the gas market while German power is down slightly while the Nordic market is marginally up on a slightly drier forecast.
Thursday 26th April 2018 - Power prices made increases yesterday in most regions on strengthening feedstocks, like gas, coal and carbon credits. Weather forecasts advise wind and solar production will be around normal for the time of year, with temperatures dipping to or slightly below normal for the end of April before rising back above normal for the start of May. Traders will be watching Mario Draghi to see what he says about European growth predictions and the impact on currency, which must purchase imported feedstocks like coal and gas.
Friday 27th April 2018 - This morning power is trading slightly supported in the spot on low renewables, but an increase in wind power production over the weekend has kept prices low. Temperatures are expected to be below normal in the UK for the weekend and the next week before increasing to above normal, much the same in the Nordics while Germany is expected to be normal or above during the 15-Day outlook. Power prices are relatively flat to the close in early trade action as feedstocks, coal and gas are trading flat to Thursday's close.
Monday 30th April 2018 - UK power prices raised significantly as a drop in the pound was bullish for all pound denominated contracts. As well as the pound drop, gas also rallied, while coal and carbon also added to the bullishness. Continental power closed almost flat, despite the stronger carbon and coal. This morning, power have dropped a touch in the front end of the curve on the Continent as negative prices are expected for tomorrows spot. Gas is up though as the system is short and we are entering more Norwegian maintenance. This could be bullish for UK power as well.
- Market Comments May
Tuesday 1st May 2018 - Electricity prices continue to increase. Support comes from the general underlying energy complex where both coal, oil and gas all seems quite strong. Gas has taken a lot of input from oil lately and any move in oil has been mirrored in the gas market. Markets are in an underlying bullish mode but levels seem elevated and further gains in electricity would need even higher gas and coal prices.
Wednesday 2nd May 2018 - Yesterday German and Nordic Power exchanges were closed due to Labour day. But the UK power market were open and prices followed gas down. Despite this minor correction gas prices generally seem well supported so there is no reason to believe UK power prices should correct much further down. Today gas prices open slightly up and power is expected to follow.
Thursday 3rd May 2018 - Yesterday’s power, coal, carbon and gas were coming off yesterday across all markets. We saw a quite massive correction in coal, and the front calendar contract fell more than 1.5 $/ton yesterday. The correction has to be seen in light of a 10 $/ton move up during the month of April. This morning power is flat to marginally down. Weather is still mild as it was yesterday, but carbon is trading below 13 €/ton, and is approaching technical support levels around 12.50 €/ton.
Friday 4th May 2018 - European power recovered yesterday late in the afternoon, as coal and gas rebounded. It all seemed to start with oil moving up as the oil market is focusing on the May 12th deadline for reviewing US sanctions against Iran. Trump has voiced his dissatisfaction with the Iranian nuclear deal, but so far it is unknown if he withdraws US from the del. This would potentially be bullish oil, and is also partly why oil have been strong over the last months. Oil pulled up coal and gas late yesterday, and this pulled up the power. Coal has moved up a touch more this morning, and most power contracts are flat to marginally up this morning.
Tuesday 8th May 2018 - The power market in the UK was closed yesterday for a bank holiday, leaving the Europeans to trade on their own. This morning, coal is flat to slightly down in early trade action and temperatures are a touch warmer, German power is dealing a bit lower, while UK power and Nordic power are slightly up on minor gains in gas and a slightly drier outlook over the 15-day forecast. Markets seem most interested in what Trump will do with the Iran nuclear deal an exit would have the potential to remove up to 1 million barrels per day from the global market, the announcement is expected at 8pm CET / 7pm GMT.
Wednesday 9th May 2018 - Power prices were varied yesterday, German power was up across the board moving up with gas while Nordic power was down with a modest improvement in precipitation and robust wind power production in the spot. Price development in the UK was less reliable, spot prices came off slightly pulling down the price at the very front of the curve while longer dated contracts made minor gains. Late last night Trump pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal by signalling he would not roll-over the waiver on sanctions giving companies between 90-180 days to quit buying/selling raw goods from/to Iran and for major companies like Boeing and Airbus to cancel sales. This morning, prices are up across the energy complex including the feedstocks and power in every market.
Thursday 10th May 2018 - UK power prices were down on the spot due to strong wind and solar production and mild temperatures, while curve prices in both markets made gains with the broader energy complex which was driven by oil market moves. UK power followed gas which has been one of the strongest performers in the European energy complex, owing to strong demand from storage operators to replenish inventories for the coming winter and the contractual tie to oil via legacy Russian contracts and the LNG market which remains mostly linked to the oil market. This morning, feedstocks like gas and coal are up as oil makes further gains, power markets are following suit, liquidity is down sharply and the Nordic market is closed today as most continental traders are at home for a bank holiday.
Friday 11th May 2018 - Power prices made increases in all markets yesterday, in very thin volumes for Germany and the Nordics as holidays kept traders away from their screens. The UK power market followed the gains in gas and a big move in carbon which pushed prices further up. This morning, gas prices are down slightly so UK power should be down a touch, however, gains in coal have boosted prices for Germany and the Nordics which are catching up to the moves made yesterday. With this Friday being a bridge day between the holiday and the weekend expect lower volumes and wider bid/offer spreads as many traders will be out for a long weekend.
Monday 14th May 2018 - Power prices increased in all markets and across all products on Friday, following feedstocks, coal and gas to the upside and driven higher by supported prices in carbon and the generally bullish sentiment in the energy complex. This morning, price action is mixed, Germany is up slightly in the spot and down on the curve following a minor retracement in coal prices. Softer gas prices should move UK power down if they are able to hold while the Nordic power market is up on drier conditions. Temperature forecasts are expected to be mostly around normal to slightly above over the 15-day period with wind and solar producing around normal.
Tuesday 15th May 2018 - Power prices continued to move higher during yesterday’s session with rise of feedstocks like gas and coal which were both pressured to the upside from oil, carbon, which has traded down most of yesterday staged a late comeback to close in positive territory. This morning, we are seeing much of the same, coal prices are hovering around the previous close while gas is offered just slightly down from the close.
Wednesday 16th May 2018 - Power prices were varied in direction yesterday with UK power following gas and softening. This morning, German power prices are down a touch on warmer weather forecasts and increases in forecasts solar output in the coming days. Nordics power is offered on around the close from yesterday and UK power is relatively unchanged with only a few contracts changing hands in the spot market thus far, with modest gains in gas this morning UK power is expected to follow to the upside.
Thursday 17th May 2018 - Power prices made slight increases yesterday, following on bullish sentiment from the oil market that filters through to coal and reversed a sell-off in gas, all of this was compounded with an increase of 86 cents in the price to pollute, carbon credits crossed the 15-euro mark. This morning, oil prices continue their ascent towards $80, coal is up a buck and a half to over $90/tonne while an additional outage in Norway has pushed spot gas prices up 2 p/th while the curve is up a penny in the UK and about half a euro on the continent.
Friday 18th May 2018 – A flow in coal, gas and oil yesterday sent up power prices across the board, and EUA’s also lengthy gains and lifted the power. This morning coal is slightly off again, but still lingering around the 90 $/ton mark. EUA’s extended gains yesterday, settling at a new record of 15.30 €/ ton. Still now significant news, but the approach of start of MSR seems to be driving the market. MSR starts 1st Jan 2019. Oil has dropped a bit during the night, and this sends down coal today, and we also see gas and power opening down this morning.
Monday 21st May 2018 - A weakening in coal, gas and oil lead most European power contracts down on Friday. We have seen coal and oil having problems establishing above 90 and 80 respectively, and this could have led to some selling interests. EUA’s were mostly unchanged on Friday. This morning most of Europe is closed due to Whit Monday so we expect low liquidity, but UK power could see small losses as gas have opened slightly lower.
Tuesday 22nd May 2018 - Power prices marked-up a bit higher on Monday, in thin volume due to the Whit Monday holiday observed across much of Continental Europe. This morning, everything has increased. Traders have had one day without being in the office to buy are have come back hungry for commodities. Gas is rising on coal and oil pressuring UK power to the upside, the coal move is pushing up German power and despite an improvement in the hydro situation the Nordic power market is playing catch-up from Monday and running alongside the moves in German power.
Wednesday 23rd May 2018 - Power prices were very sturdy yesterday, with the Nordics outpacing its peers to make the greatest gains on the day. This morning, coal is down almost $2 in early trading, carbon has reversed three-quarters of yesterday's move while gas and oil are down more modestly. Mild temperatures and solar are expected to be strong for the balance of the week while wind and precipitation are expected to be low.
Thursday 24th May 2018 - Power prices shadowed their respective feedstocks yesterday, with the UK power market pulling back with the drop in NBP gas while slightly softer coal prices kept the German power market flat to slightly down. This morning, German and UK power prices are up with a rebound in both coal and gas while the Nordics are mostly flat taking on minor gains from gains in the price of carbon credits.
Friday 25th May 2018 - Power prices were down discreetly after yesterday’s session ended, with UK power taking direction from gas while German power remained a bit mixed with front-end strength from low wind out-put and back-end weakness from the dip in oil and gas. This morning, power prices are down in all markets with only the very front of the German curve holding on to gains from lower renewables output, coal, gas and oil are all down leading power and even carbon to the downside in early action.
Tuesday 29th May 2018 - Power prices made increases yesterday save for the UK which remains untraded since Friday due to the Spring bank holiday. This morning, temperatures remain forecasts above normal for the 15-day period, wind power output is low while solar is above average for the time of year. Prices are up further from trading yesterday, while this has helped to pull up coal and carbon as well as gas, with high demand from storage operators gas is already very expensive if it is to be needed for power generation this summer.
Wednesday 30th May 2018 - Power prices sped up yesterday driven by the spot market as low wind output coupled with above normal temperatures drove buyers to boost gas and power prices to cover the power demand. This morning, the spot remains supported while contracts from the front month and forward on German power are down, UK gas and power are mostly unchanged and Nordic is slightly up. Coal, oil and carbon are all down slightly in early morning trading.
Thursday 31st May 2018 - Power prices were sturdy again yesterday at the front end of the curves with front month prices making gains while longer dated contracts closed lower. Wind forecasts are expected to remain at or below normal for the 15-day period which has driven prices for fuels back up over the last couple days as prices recalibrate. This morning, power prices are up in the UK following the move higher in gas.
- Market Comments June
Friday 1st June 2018 - The broader energy complex is flat to slightly down with gas trading close to the previous settlement while coal and oil are off a touch; carbon is up a whisker in early action. The June contract expired yesterday in the OTC market and last minute position alignment is also part of the explanation for the substantial shifts in UK gas and power price.
Monday 4th June 2018 - prompt contracts traded down on Friday, with the day-ahead contract losing £1.90/MWh, to £56.24/MWh, primarily led by a bearish NBP gas market and an uptick in wind output forecast for today. Nuclear availability is also expected to improve this week. Curve contracts generally followed down with the NBP gas market.
Tuesday 5th June 2018 - Power prices enclosed yesterday with strong moves in coal and carbon, the poor performance over the past month by the renewables sector coupled with low hydro in the Nordics have boosted power prices. Power prices are up with carbon and gas, traders are concerned about delays and maintenance in the French nuclear fleet as they play out scenarios where production could drop as it did the past two summers.
Wednesday 6th June 2018 - Power traders sold down contracts in the UK, despite poor performance from renewables. This morning, gas is up in the UK and on the continent and UK power is also making modest improvements while German and Nordic power are still trading lower on minor improvements in the wind and solar outlooks for the 15-day period. Temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal norms from most of the month with only a few forecasters calling for a return to normal or slightly below normal for July and August.
Thursday 7th June 2018 - Reductions in gas and coal led power contracts down yesterday. Updated weather forecasts also pointed towards lower temperatures and more wind over North-western Europe from next week and onwards. This added to the bearish sentiment and sent power contracts down. Only EUA’s managed to trade up, but this was not sufficient to lift the power markets. This morning we see a bounce in gas, coal and EUA’s, and power contracts have opened up.
Friday 8th June 2018 - A flow in coal and gas drove up power contracts yesterday, apart from the Nordics, where wetter weather kept a lid on prices. Even though coal was strong yesterday, it was equally weak the day before, and in general, it seems coal is in a sideways trend. It has struggled to break through 90 $/ton, but has also stayed above 85 $/ton for the past month. Power markets have opened up this morning, as warm weather is forecasted to return to Europe in the week commencing on the 18th of June after a decrease in temperatures during next week.
Monday 11th June 2018 - Although continental and Nordic contracts were up on Friday, UK power followed the gas down. Coal traded up a touch on Friday, while EUA’s closed in negative territory. This morning, gas, coal, oil and EUA’s are coming off, and power follows down across all of the north western Europe. There have been a few nuclear delays in France during the weekend, and this is something to watch. There have been numerous problems with the French nuclear fleet the last 2 years and we could see a repetition this summer with extension on extension. This limits the downside on the front end of the curve.
Tuesday 12th June 2018 - Power prices came off yesterday as gas and EUA was weak and as the weather drifts towards more unsettled conditions. Increased wind production will also take off some of the tension the power system has been in, with the low renewable output the last month. Coal also traded down from the morning, but did recover by the end of the day. This morning coal is strong and as the weather has turned a bit more bullish since yesterday, power contracts across the board are up this morning.
Wednesday 13th June 2018 - With coal moving up more than 1 $/ton and gas also robust, power contracts had to follow the inputs upwards. Coal was remarkably strong, closing above 90 $/ton for the first time this year. This morning, coal is unchanged, but stays above 90 $/ton while gas is slightly up. Power contracts are mixed from the morning, but any move in coal either way will drive the power market. Oil seems to be on the weak side, and with the disruptions in South Africa likely to be temporary, coal could find it hard to stay above 90 when the dispute is solved, and if oil stays where it is.
Thursday 14th June 2018 - Coal has been a main driver for power prices for quite some time now. Prices have met resistance around 90 USD/ ton for CAL-19 but in yesterday’s sessions prices climbed above again. With oil and gas following the direction North, power prices climbed as well. Weather has also turned marginally bearish with lower temperatures and more wind.
Friday 15th June 2018 - European power dealers sold down contracts in the UK yesterday on weaker fuel prices, slightly improved renewable outlook and weaker carbon. This morning’s wind forecast for Germany has worsened drastically compared to yesterday and prices are up. Nordic power is down on improved hydro forecast. Temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal norms all the way into the last week of June and gives only little hope for higher wind generation in the UK and Germany. Carbon started the day with a modest gain of 1%.
Monday 18th June 2018 - Power prices reflected the movements in the gas markets last week. Marginal downward pressure is seen in the power market after the weather has normalised and especially wind speed has picked up. With gas storage levels being at a very low level after a late arrival of the winter heavy injection is needed all summer. With this as a given the power sectors demand for gas becomes the most important swing factor for the gas markets: lower than normal wind will add pressure to gas prices and indirectly power prices while on the other hand healthy wind production will lower power prices and indirectly help the gas storage situation.
Tuesday 19th June 2018 - Friday, it was proclaimed that outage on several nuclear reactors in Belgium were extended. Even though this was announced on Friday neighbouring markets reacted yesterday with strong increases, particular in Balance of the Year contracts. Prices on coal, emissions and gas also rose yesterday and added to an underlying bullish sentiment. Like the gas markets power markets also seem nervous and the volatility is very high.
Wednesday 20th June 2018 - In yesterday’s gathering power prices took input from the price directions in the coal and gas markets. Coal has for a long time been a dominating driver for European power prices but price levels now seems to meet considerable resistance against getting higher. Despite this observation it’s important to highlight that coal demand seems healthy and it is not expected that the coal market will return and enter any bearish trend.
Thursday 21st June 2018 - Power prices descended yesterday with the broader energy complex that saw coal and oil lose ground while gas followed to the downside. Regardless of a sizable drop in US crude inventories oil taking a loss on the day, leaving coal and gas to set the tone for power during most of the session. This morning, oil sets the tone again, and is softer in early trading. Don’t expect to many players to take big positions until there is more clarity on supply increases from OPEC after their June meeting.
Friday 22nd June 2018 - Power prices went in two different directions yesterday dropping with the sharp drop in coal and oil while power zig-zagged with gas throughout the day first down then closing up. This morning, coal and oil have bounced back as traders buy into the market ahead of the OPEC meeting and continued confusion over if supply will be increased, by how much or simply held steady. Power prices are up in all markets, from the spot to the far end of the curve on an expected drop in renewables production set to take place over the weekend and with gains in gas, coal and oil. Carbon rallied yesterday but is off slightly in early trade action.
Monday 25th June 2018 - Power prices united across Europe and in the UK on Friday, following a bullish energy complex to the upside. Oil prices lifted coal and gas which set the tone and direction for power. A drop in renewables production boosted spot prices in additions to the complex driven gains on the curve. This morning, coal, gas oil and carbon are all trading lower in early action, as a result, UK power and German power are also trading at a discount to Friday’s close, only Nordic power is up today as the drop in wind and the prolonged dry forecast reduce hydro levels and lift prices.
Tuesday 26th June 2018 - Power prices in the UK were driven down yesterday by dropping gas prices, while German power was mixed and Nordic power made increases on drier conditions and a worsening hydro balance. This morning, a sell-off in carbon is putting pressure on power prices in all markets, while softer gas and coal prices are also having some impact. Weather forecasts are set to cool down closer towards the seasonal normal at the end of the 15-day forecast, with a modest pick-up in wind production and robust solar throughout.
Wednesday 27th June 2018 - Power prices slipped yesterday across the front end of the curve, with UK power dropping in line with NBP gas. This morning, all power markets are trading higher than the close following the feedstocks, coal and gas, which have been pulled up by a big move in oil which occurred late in the session yesterday.
Thursday 28th June 2018 - Power prices flew higher yesterday across all three regions with the strength in baseload feedstocks driving the moves. This morning, German power is up at the front of the curve, from spot to the Q3-18, while longer dated contracts are flat. In the UK, spot prices for power are down along with NBP gas, no other contracts have traded but with slightly softer gas prices and a minor dip in carbon contracts, UK power is offered flat to the previous day's close.
Friday 29th June 2018 - Power prices came off at the front end of the curve yesterday in the UK while longer dated contracts made slight increases following gas, weakness in carbon kept gains modest. This morning, gas prices are mostly flat, down on the spot, while coal and oil are supported higher. UK power is mostly sideways in early trading, Germany is flat to slightly up while the Nordics continue to make marked gains.
- Market Comments July
Monday 2nd July 2018 - Power prices united across Europe and the UK on Friday, moving up in concert with coal, gas and oil. This morning, power prices in Germany are slightly lower as the holiday season takes hold and demand dips. The weather continues to be forecast above normal out to the end of the 15-Day period, solar power production will remain to be above normal for the same period while wind and precipitation continue to under perform.
Tuesday 3rd July 2018 - Power prices made increases across the forward curves motivated by strength in the respective spot markets, a consequence of weak renewable generation. Temperature forecasts continue to show persistent above normal levels out to the end of the 15-day period, as a consequence power prices can rise on a greater need for air conditioning, evaporation from hydro reserves and lower nuclear productivity as the plants use rivers to cool their processes, which are all warming up. This morning, UK power is up on continued gains in NBP gas.
Wednesday 4th July 2018 - Power prices in the UK mirrored the movement in the gas markets with gains in the spot and on the front month contract while the seasons were mostly unchanged. Power prices are up in all markets, with more modest gains in the UK and Germany, while the Nordic market is by far the strongest with gains being fuelled by low wind and dry conditions in addition to the broader energy complex.
Thursday 5th July 2018 - Power prices were slightly softer in the UK and Germany yesterday, while the Nordic market continued to make further increases. Gas. coal and oil were sideways to slightly stronger day on day. Temperatures are being forecasts to return a bit closer to normal for the time of year in both Germany and the Nordics, while the UK is set to extend the much above normal temperatures for the balance of the 15-day period. A long system and softer coal and oil prices in the face of coming tariffs between China and the US are softening markets slightly in early trade action.
Friday 6th July 2018 - Power prices moved higher yesterday with NBP gas, gas prices on the continent and low wind production improved German power, while Nordic power made a minor retracement on slightly cooler temperatures. This morning gas, oil and coal are all off slightly from yesterday's close; in accordance, power prices across all markets are also dealing a tick lower in early trade action. Forecasts remain mild with temperatures above normal for the time of year, strong solar output over shadowed by low wind and hydro production in the Nordics.
Monday 9th July 2018 - This morning, power prices are being supported in their increases by further declining wind production, a drop in German solar output and a dip in the already low precipitation levels experienced over the summer. Gains in coal, gas and oil are supporting longer dated contracts in power this morning, although the increases are thus far modest there is little appetite to trade into the bullishness.
Tuesday 10th July 2018 - Power prices moved to fresh highs yesterday, starting up in the morning and continuing to gather into the close. This morning, coal, gas and oil prices are all up and renewable production is dull to say the least. Prices are up across all markets following the moves in the broader commodity complex as fundamentals take more of a backseat in the European energy markets.
Wednesday 11th July 2018 - Power prices divided between the UK and the rest of Europe yesterday as the UK power market chose to follow NBP gas to the downside while both German power and the Nordics rallied with coal and oil, and weak renewables generation. This morning, power prices are down following oil, coal, carbon and gas lower as news of a list of another $200 Billion in US/China tariffs send for consideration by the Trump administration rattled Asian markets and is spilling into the commodity complex with iron ore take the hardest hit for fears of a global economic slowdown.
Thursday 12th July 2018 - Power prices were typically unaffected in the UK and Germany after yesterday's session despite a drop in gas coal held the market up and increases in carbon provided additional support. Persistently low precipitation and wind has driven hydro producers to further constrain production and drive premium for the front-end products even higher. This morning, power prices are a touch softer in early trading with a drop in coal and gas while carbon is unchanged, fundamentals are also unchanged.
Friday 13th July 2018 - Power prices made predictable moves yesterday based on the movement of each respective market's preferred underlying feedstock. This morning, gas is up and coal and oil are down slightly in early trade action, power prices are mostly flat in early trading as the markets wait to see what direction the feedstocks will take. The weather outlook remains unchanged, above normal temperatures, coupled with low wind and dry conditions all set to continue.
Monday 16th July 2018 - Power prices united in the UK on Friday, moving up with NBP gas and sentiment from oil. This morning, German power is up, Nordic power is up and UK power is sideways. A lower solar outlook is boosting prices in Germany while the moves in the other markets are mostly just following the few completed trades in carbon and natural gas.
Tuesday 17th July 2018 - UK power prices dropped yesterday as lower gas, coal, oil and carbon prices weighed on the market. This morning prices are relatively flat to the previous close, spot prices receive some support while longer dated contracts are down a touch on a weaker energy complex.
Wednesday 18th July 2018 - Power prices in the UK were mostly flat yesterday in spite of a slightly more pronounced dip in NBP gas prices. Temperatures are expected to remain above normal for the rest of the month, with wind power production well below normal while solar and hydro levels continue around the historical norm. The UK is posting the smallest gain, a move driven by increased prices for NBP gas.
Thursday 19th July 2018 - Power prices rallied yesterday across Europe and the UK, following on strong gains in the underlying feedstock, coal and gas, coupled with strength in carbon and oil prices. There is a strong desire to fill storage both here and in continental Europe which means even if demand for energy falls we will still see gas flowing into facilities to make up the storage gap, keeping both gas and elec prices high certainly for the next 2-3 months..
Friday 20th July 2018 - Power prices made increases in all markets yesterday, the gains in UK power reflected the modest moves in NBP gas while German power was roofing with massive gains in carbon, the heavy presence of coal in that market made the cost of polluting a bigger factor in the price move. This morning, coal prices are dipping gas prices are flat and oil and carbon are up slightly from the close, consequently power prices are mostly flat day-on-day in early trade action.
Monday 23rd July 2018 - Power prices were distributed lower on Friday, following the declining in the price of fuel inputs like coal and natural gas. Losses could have been greater is not for support received from increases in carbon and some sentiment from the oil market. This morning, gas prices are up while coal, oil and carbon are all trading sideways. The continuing heat coupled with poor performance of renewables is continuing to put stress on the grid as demand for cooling and over heating thermal and nuclear plants becomes a greater risk.
Tuesday 24th July 2018 - Power prices recovered in the UK following an up-tick in the price of NBP gas and a jump in carbon prices. This morning, power prices are mostly sideways making slight increases or losses in early trade action as the market waits to see what direction coal, gas and carbon will take over the day, oil is down slightly.
Wednesday 25th July 2018 - Power prices made increases yesterday, as thermal feedstocks, coal and gas, made gains while the fundamentals remain bullish, hot dry weather with little wind. This morning, coal is up a buck, gas is stronger and oil is up modestly as markets gear up for the release of the weekly oil data numbers, forecasts show and expected draw from reserves of 3-million-barrels last week. Power prices are strongest at the front of the respective curves while longer dated contracts are up slightly as traders wait to see what direction the oil will go.
Thursday 26th July 2018 - UK power prices made a mostly sideways shuffle by the end of the day after climbing with gas throughout most of the session, only the spot held its gains. Today, prices are down on the back of softer coal and gas prices, minor improvements in renewables, both wind and hydro, and the possibility of a return to more normal temperatures after a spike in the current heat wave.
Friday 27th July 2018 - Friday’s power prices were dealt lower across all contracts and all markets. This morning UK power is flat as gas is unchanged in early action while the Nordic power market is slightly softer, following on the heels of German power and softer carbon prices. The markets are all trading in thin 'summer holiday' volume and the action is slower to get started. No major announcements are expected today.
Monday 30th July 2018 - Power prices saw losses on Friday across all markets, except on the respective spot markets which made increases on sweltering conditions. Temperatures are expected to slowly move back down towards normal while wind output will remain at normal in the UK. This morning, power prices are up in early trading on the continued heat which is limiting some power plant availability. August contract expiry will happen today with only the over-the-counter market left for Tuesday.
Tuesday 31st July 2018 - Yesterday’s power prices made increases in all markets with the strongest moves in the Nordics, while the UK power prices moved up with gas. This morning, gas, oil and coal are all trading down in early action with coal making the biggest drop. Carbon prices have also retreated which will apply some pressure to all the European power markets. Very little volume has gone through yet in any of the power markets with the Nordic and UK markets offered around flat to the close while Germany has traded slightly lower on the curve with the front end of the German market, spot and front month, getting some support from lower wind output.
- Market Comments August
Wednesday 1st August 2018 - Power prices slipped yesterday in the UK, save for the spot, following the retracement in UK gas prices, German power was also dealt lower on improving wind forecasts and temperatures trending closer to normal for the time of year. This morning, gas and oil are down coal and carbon are flat to slightly higher, German power is up marginally, UK power is off slightly and the Nordic market has yet to trade with offers and bids relatively close to yesterday’s close.
Thursday 2nd August 2018 - Power prices were down in the UK yesterday owing to sinking gas prices in the UK and improved weather conditions. This morning, coal prices are down, oil and gas a flat to marginally up, carbon is off and weather forecasts are broadly unchanged. As a result, German power is down across the curve, up on the spot. The UK power market is sideways in early trade action.
Friday 3rd August 2018 - Power prices in the UK were mostly flat yesterday reflecting the moves in the NBP gas market while spot prices made increases like the NBP. This morning, coal and oil are down marginally, gas has made a small gain as have emissions credits, the result; power prices are up in all markets in early trade action. Big moves in price are not expected as the market has bearish fundamental drivers and a risk-off macro environment to contend with as headwinds.
Monday 6th August 2018 - Power prices united across all products and in all markets on Friday, as NBP gas prices boosted UK power and strength in coal and carbon lead to gain in both German and Nordic power respectively. This morning, oil and coal are up slightly, gas is trading around the previous close and carbon is mostly flat. UK power is unchanged in the thin volume of early trading.
Tuesday 7th August 2018 - Power prices increased in the UK yesterday, rising in-kind with the NBP gas market and a generally bullish European energy complex. This morning, traders are focused on the weather moves and the minor gains in oil which will drive the tone for the energy complex, power prices are up slightly in early trade action.
Wednesday 8th August 2018 - Power prices continued to drop yesterday in the Nordic markets, bucking the trend of the broader energy complex that continues to rise. Both UK and German power prices ticked higher following their underlying feedstock's gas and coal respectively. Scorching summer temperatures across Europe and Asia have buyers competing for supplies. This morning, gas continues to move up while both coal and oil are trading flat to the previous close, UK power is up with gas while German power is making small increases.
Thursday 9th August 2018 - Power prices fell sharply in the Nordic market yesterday, driven by a transformation in weather, the expectation of a spike in both wind and rain into the weekend drove prices lower, finally in the UK bearish oil news reversed the increases made in gas but a weak pound kept prices from settling lower day-on-day. This morning, coal and oil are mostly sideways in early action carbon is up a touch while gas is down slightly. Power prices are mostly flat to slightly down in Germany, flat to slightly up in the Nordics and slightly down in the UK in very thin early morning volumes.
Friday 10th August 2018 - Power prices united across the European and UK markets yesterday, driven from the front month to longer-dated contracts with only the spot prices of the respective markets trading down. Cooler temperatures, coupled with increased wind and rain sank the prompt while stronger coal and gas prices sustained the curves. This morning, power prices are trading down slightly from the close yesterday, coal, oil and gas are all touch softer as is carbon which are affecting sentiment. Some support may be found from a return to more normal levels of wind and higher temperatures next week, however, a lot will depend on the price of feedstocks.
Monday 13th August 2018 - Power prices moved higher in both the UK and in Germany on Friday following the primary underlying feedstock for each market. This morning, both coal and oil are a touch softer, albeit only in early trade action, German, Nordic and UK power are all up while market fundamentals look mostly unchanged. Stock markets are down and concern remains of slowing growth in emerging markets which are being dragged down by Turkey’s currency woes.
Tuesday 14th August 2018 - Power prices were on the rise yesterday in the UK following a rally in gas and carbon prices, while strength in coal lifted Germany and the Nordics followed the market up in sympathy. The increases in power and gas outstripped the moves in coal and the broader commodities and financial markets. This morning, demand is down across Europe as temperatures moderate and wind power production picks up slightly, nevertheless prices continue to rise with coal and a bullish market sentiment.
Wednesday 15th August 2018 - Power prices fell in spot markets across Europe and the UK yesterday, on the back of an up-tick in renewables production. This morning, the market is taking a bit of a breather in early trade action, gas prices are up, oil is down and coal is sideways. Warm weather forecasts with renewables around normal for the time of year are coupled with a bearish financial climate as the larger markets go into a risk-off mode over the spat between the US and Turkey, which is weighing on European indexes.
Thursday 16th August 2018 - Power prices jumped in both German and the Nordics while prices in the UK slid with falling gas and carbon prices. Strength in the neighbouring markets has been attributed to weak renewables production and a minor increase in demand coming from a rise in temperatures. This morning, power prices in the UK are up with an increase in NBP gas prices. Carbon has fallen below 18 euro/tonne which has been a bit of a psychological level for traders.
Friday 17th August 2018 - Power prices were sturdier in both Germany and the UK yesterday, increases in both coal and gas helped to boost prices, while increased rain and stronger wind in the Nordic region pressured prices in that market. This morning, coal and gas are up modestly in early action as is carbon which has been enough to boost German and UK power prices. Forecasts continue to show above normal temperatures for the 15-day period. Wind production is a little improved in both the UK and the Nordics while it remains well below normal in Germany.
Monday 20th August 2018 - Power prices enclosed in the UK on Friday, in particular on the spot which was up £10.50 on a pick-up in demand and a drop in wind. This morning, the UK power market is a touch softer in early trading following on a retracement in the NBP gas market. Cooling temperatures, towards normal levels, coupled with stronger winds later this week should put pressure on spot prices, coal is down while oil is up leaving sentiment on the curve neutral.
Tuesday 21st August 2018 - Power prices driven higher yesterday, by a sharp turn in feedstocks late in the session that began with UK gas and spready to continental gas and on to coal, carbon also made outsized increases as it has cemented its position above 18 euro. This morning, power prices are on the rise with gas and coal as the European energy complex continues to reach new highs. Strength in the UK gas market is setting the tone for UK power. Gains are greatest at the front of the curve with the front month, quarter and season/calendar making the biggest moves while longer dated products are less changed.
Wednesday 22nd August 2018 - Power prices were distributed lower in the spot markets of European and the UK yesterday. Temperature forecasts are expected to remain around normal with wind power production at or below normal for the 15-day period, precipitation and solar are slightly above normal for the same period. Power prices continue to get ratcheted-up in early trading following rising feedstocks and carbon prices.
Thursday 23rd August 2018 - Power prices made increases in both the UK and Germany, while the outcome in the Nordics was a bit more mixed. This morning, power prices continue to move higher despite rather sideways markets in the feedstock, by contrast carbon prices continue to make outsized gains, about 50 cents yesterday, continuing to move higher this morning. Higher carbon prices disproportionately lift power prices driven by the highest carbon fuels, namely coal and then natural gas while renewables and hydro are less effected.
Friday 24th August 2018 - Carbon, coal and gas all united yesterday, pushing UK and Continental power prices up. Carbon is set for a historical week on week increase if it closes at current levels. Anticipation of a tighter market by 2019 as MSR kicks in has driven the Carbon price up all year. Carbon looks set to continue up this morning, which has pushed power prices higher, but some profit taking during the day cannot be ruled out either.
Tuesday 28th August 2018 - Bullish efforts from all over the fuel complex left all curve contracts for power with nowhere to go but up. Coal, oil and gas also poured, and given the rise in fuels, the rise in power contracts wasn’t even excessive. Yesterday, Carbon broke above 21 €/ton, and with continued bullish inputs from coal and oil, continental power markets traded significantly up yesterday. The UK market was closed due to bank holiday, but will have some catching up to do today.
Wednesday 29th August 2018 - UK power had some catching up to do yesterday compared to its Continental counterparts as a bank holiday in the UK had closed UK power on Monday. The catching up meant a bullish power market in the UK as both carbon and coal had posted significant increases on Monday. Gas also traded up yesterday, adding to bullishness in UK power. Today we are off for a slow start, but carbon is down at the time of writing, and this will be an important driver for power today.
Thursday 30th August 2018 - With all fuels moving up yesterday, power prices could do little but follow. We did see a slow start to the day, and during morning hours several markets were down on the day. Carbon looked like it was up for a correction, but it overturned early losses and closed above 21 €/ton again. Coal moved up more than 1 $/bbl on the calendar contract, and is trading above 100 $/ton on the Q4-18 contract this morning, with the calendar contract flirting with previous highs. All in all a bullish start to the day today, and power is up further with continued strong inputs from the fuels complex.
Friday 31st August 2018 - Yesterday all markets traded up from the morning as inputs from coal, carbon, gas and oil was bullish from the start of the day. This morning coal is bouncing, and gas and carbon is also up. This is pulling up power contracts from last traded levels yesterday. In general, it is volatile days these days, and we have seen a lot of volatility intra-day. So be prepared for another bumpy ride.
- Market Comments September
Monday 3rd September 2018 - Commodities are very volatile at the moment, and with the levels markets have reached, there is a significant downside if fundamentals improve just a little. An example of this is this morning, where the news of the restart of 5 French nukes over the weekend has hit the market. Gas is unaffected as unexpected outages in the UK production is bullish. Carbon is also coming off today and could be testing the 20 €/ton level in the near term (currently at 20.70 €/ton).
Tuesday 4th September 2018 - Power prices increased in the UK yesterday, following the heels of a rally in NBP gas, this was in stark contrast to the moves in both the German and Nordic power markets which suffered losses on the back of a rout in carbon prices, which lost almost a euro in value. This morning, coal and gas prices are up and oil is sideways, carbon is mostly flat in early trading. German power is gaining on the back of the curve with coal while the moves in the Nordics are muted, finally, UK power is strong with the continued gains in the NBP and poor wind power output.
Wednesday 5th September 2018 - Power prices continued to increase yesterday across all markets and across almost all contracts save for a few near-term Nordic products which saw minor losses. Support for the markets came from the rising prices for natural gas and coal, while carbon and oil of little consequence. This morning, gas, coal and oil are all flat to slightly down from the previous day's close, weather forecasts are a touch warmer with minor increases in wind and rain which has led to a slightly softer open across all markets in Europe and the UK.
Thursday 6th September 2018 - Power prices were different across Europe during yesterday's trading session, in the UK prices rallied with NBP gas in the usual fashion, save for the spot which was dealt lower. This morning, coal and gas are up, as are oil and carbon, power prices are rallying across all markets in early trade action.
Friday 7th September 2018 - Power prices increased in all markets yesterday, powered up by strength in natural gas prices and massive 1.10 euro move in the value of emissions credits which have been a particular focus of the power sector. Forecasted temperatures remain above normal for the time of year while in the Nordics better than normal wind and rain should help to keep prices from blowing out. Today coal and gas are both up which is leading to gains in both German and UK power prices.
Monday 10th September 2018 - Power prices ascended on Friday across all regions and all contracts from the spot to longer dated exposures. Increases came as a result of strength in gas and carbon prices, despite a drop in coal and a move in oil. This morning, coal, gas and oil are all up but in the power markets it is really carbon that is stealing the show. Weather and renewables are generally neutral to slightly bearish with good wind production in the UK and the Nordics, increasing hydro production and strong solar in Germany, unfortunately this is being washed out but the strength in carbon prices.
Tuesday 11th September 2018 - Power prices in Europe and the UK diverged in an interesting fashion yesterday with spot prices falling on decent renewables and mild temperatures while the forward curves in the UK and Germany rallied with coal, gas and carbon. Strong rains and some improvement to the hydro balance coupled with improving wind power output were cited as reason for the move. This morning, carbon gas and coal are down, but clawing their way back towards flat, the bull-run does not appear to be over just yet.
Wednesday 12th September 2018 - UK power came off with gas this morning, while continental contracts closed up as coal remained strong outweighing bearish Carbon. We see gas coming off hard driving down UK power even further, however volatility remains very high.
Thursday 13th September 2018 - Prompt power prices dipped yesterday as an increase in forecast wind generation pressured prices. Wind generation is forecast to rise to 7.2GW on Saturday, around 3GW higher than average recorded wind output this month. The day-ahead contract lost £2.32/MWh to close at £69.00/MWh. Near curve contracts also edged lower as nuclear availability is forecast to improve going into October and November. Far curve contracts also lost value in line with corresponding NBP gas products.
Friday 14th September 2018 - Today, power prices continue to drop in early trade action. Carbon, coal and gas are all down which continue to pressure all power markets. Only oil prices are up this morning, a mere 25 cents, the commodity has gone unnoticed over the past week or so as carbon and big moves in coal and gas have been in focus and set the tone for the direction of power prices.
Monday 17th September 2018 - Power prices mostly followed their fuel inputs on Friday, with UK power moving higher alongside gains in the NBP gas market, while German power fell on lower coal and the Nordics dropped on increased wind and rain. Carbon made a relatively big move on gaining back 1 euro, but this was mostly shrugged off by the market. Today, UK power is up on the back of stronger gas and coal prices. Carbon is trading around the 20 euro resistance after closing just below that level on Friday. Weather forecasts are at or above normal for the time of year with wind starting to pick up slightly as temperatures cool down in to Autumn.
Tuesday 18th September 2018 - Carbon, Coal and gas has all been pushed up this morning and power is reacting alongside the moves, regaining some of the losses from last week. Temperature forecasts and wind output remain volatile causing prices to fluctuate after every forecast.
Wednesday 19th September 2018 - The power markets are mostly flat with only the Nordics showing any major gains after taking the biggest fall the previous day. Carbon prices are down slightly as the market struggles to trade below the 20 euro level. Despite some retracement, the markets remain supported by bullish sentiment in oil over comments from Saudi Arabia about tacit acceptance of prices north of $80, a large drop in carbon will probably be necessary to bring prices lower.
Thursday 20th September 2018 - Power prices increased on all contracts and across all trading hubs, save for the spot market in the Nordics which came under pressure from both mild weather and increased renewables production, both wind and hydro. This morning, the markets are all up again, carbon has gained almost a euro while gas and coal are also showing strength with the broader energy complex and on forecasts for slightly cooler than normal temperatures.
Friday 21st September 2018 - UK power made increases across the board with the moves in gas and carbon. German power made gains with gas and carbon while the spot market came under extreme pressure, falling over 17euros as wind production ramped up pushing out fossil fuels from generation. This morning, power prices are up in early trading across all markets on the back of gaining prices for coal, oil and gas, a minor increase in carbon is also supporting prices.
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