- Market Comments January
Tuesday 3rd January 2017 - UK Power is taking direction from UK Gas this morning. UK weather is recovering and is set to warm up mid-January, which is decreasing demand forecast for the rest of January and in turn pushing front end prices down.
Wednesday 4th January 2017 - UK Power prices this morning are tracing Gas with the rises. Again we are seeing prices rise from the over correction yesterday, and warmer than seasonal normal temperatures expected for mid Jan however from the 16th December temperatures are set to drop again for a cold snap. Oil is also rising; however they are limited by a rising dollar.
Thursday 5th January 2017 - UK Power this morning is again tracing Gas and moving upwards. It is still thought to be rising following an ongoing correction of the low prices seen Tuesday this week. Coal prices are posting gains, which is supporting the curve, as Oil remains quite static.
Friday 6th January 2017 - UK Power prices are rising this morning, following very choppy EUA movements recently due to generators Sparks and Darks rehedging, and colder weather reforecasts for the UK for mid Jan. Looking out to next week, we have a higher wind production outlook, which could soften prices.
Monday 9th January 2017 - UK Power has also risen this morning, taking direction from UK Gas prices. As weather is set to remain below seasonal normal this adds support to the curve pushing prices upwards. Another driver is falling GBP value following Theresa Mays speech, which suggests that UK likely will have to leave the single market before negotiating any further deals.
Tuesday 10th January 2017 - UK Power prices have also risen across the curve this morning. Taking slight direction from UK Gas and its struggle with a weakening pound and colder weather, Power is also reacting to these factors. In conjunction with all this, there is low French Nuclear availability, low wind generation levels and Coal has been rising for the past few days.
Wednesday 11th January 2017 - UK Power has also risen across the curve this morning. There have been cold weather revisions in the UK, plus extremely cold weather forecasts on the continent. This is causing European demand to rise and is placing pressure on prices and pushing them upwards. Also making an impact are French Nuclear’s which are currently operating at half capacity.
Thursday 12th January 2017 - UK Power prices have also risen again today, similarly taking direction from cold weather conditions expected across Europe and other rising commodities. UK Power is still moving in line with NBP prices; however, as French WA prices remain strong, this is also adding support. Volatile markets are expected over the coming weeks, as unstable weather in the UK continues to be main driver.
Friday 13th January 2017 - UK Power has fallen this morning, as forecasts suggest milder weather going into next week. However, we have also seen some rises, as wind production is set to decrease next week, pushing some prices up, and limiting others.
Monday 16th January 2017 - UK Power prices have fallen at the front end of the curve, as we see higher wind forecasts and milder weather. We are seeing prices take direction from decreasing UK Gas contracts and falling French Power prices.
Tuesday 17th January 2017 - UK Power has also risen across the curve this morning. Main reason for this is that is it moving in the direction with NBP, which is steadily rising today. Colder weather is expected (however we have good wind generation levels too which could limit rises), and Theresa May is set for her speech today to discuss the country’s foreign policy, which will no doubt cause market volatility.
Wednesday 18th January 2017 - UK Power has also risen this morning as it similarly takes direction from falling UK temperatures and limited wind power output for the next few days. It also moves up as most European fuel markets post gains and strong Coal prices continue their upwards momentum.
Thursday 19th January 2017 - UK Power has risen, as forecasts have predicted that cold weather should last longer than initially thought. We are seeing direction from other rising European fuel main driver being weather. Coal is also rising day on day, as there are predictions that the market is overbought and therefore prices are increasing.
Friday 20th January 2017 - UK Power has taken direction from the NBP rises this morning, along with colder weather revisions which is increasing heating demand forecasts. These cold weather spells are expected to last up until the start of February. There are also low wind levels for power which is adding bullish sentiment.
Monday 23rd January 2017 - Power prices were supported on Friday by cold weather revisions to the region, likely to increase the gas demand to the UK. Further out on the curve, prices strengthened following the European and UK NBP gas prices which also climbed. UK Power is likely to experience it’s tightest day in terms of supply on Monday, but with wind generation expected to significantly increase throughout the week prices could be pressured.
Tuesday 24th January 2017 - UK Power prices followed the NBP Gas counterpart on Monday with prices generally strengthening throughout the day. Cold weather, low wind availability and supply issues in Europe has seen the demand for Gas to burn for generation has significantly climbed over recent days. There was some weakness on the prompt in the afternoon session as warmer revisions and higher wind output fed through for this week but this did little to offset further gains across the curve.
Wednesday 25th January 2017 - UK Power prices were bearish on Tuesday with prices falling across the curve. Warmer weather revisions to upcoming temperatures providing the biggest impact to prices as UK demand was constantly revised downwards as expectations move towards a warmer and mild February. On top of this weaker fuels prices in Europe helped contribute to falling prices across the curve, also mirroring the movements of the NBP gas market which also showed similar losses. High wind generation for the remainder of the week also helped to ease prompt prices.
Thursday 26th January 2017 - UK Power has dropped across the curve this morning, as it takes direction from warmer weather conditions for the next 2 weeks, which reduce levels for demand. Also impacting the Power curve is weakness in most European fuels.
Friday 27th January 2017 - Towards the front of the UK Power curve, we have seen some decreases, like NBP on the back of milder weather forecasts and bearish sentiment. However towards the back end, we have seen some slight rises taking direction from Oil, as crude output from the US rises, OPEC and other producers still vow to create cut; causing conflicting news.
Monday 30th January 2017 - This morning, UK Power prices have also increased, again following colder weather forecasts set for next week. We are seeing a blocking high at the moment, which is stopping the normal westerly winds the UK receives for milder weather, which means we could be set for a cold period until this shifts. We can also see that Coal prices have increased, which could be impacting further back on the curve.
Tuesday 31st January 2017 - UK Powers main driver is also temperature. As we see the curve rise across the board, weather continues its cold runs for next week and into week 7, pushing the prompt upwards. UK Power is also gaining support from rising European fuels as it takes direction from the many rises on the markets.
- Market Comments February
Wednesday 1st February 2017 - UK Power prices firmed a touch on Tuesday following the NBP gas market and feeling the impact from colder weather forecasts. Weather runs forecasting longer range in the UK expect below seasonal normal temperatures into the back end of February and March helping to lift the front of the curve. Wind generation climbed on Tuesday but prompt prices didn’t ease as wind levels are expected to outturn low on Wednesday. A firmer European fuels price especially Coal, helped to lift the curve, which faced late support from a weakening Sterling.
Thursday 2nd February 2017 - A mixed day on the UK Power front as prompt contracts held value and eased throughout the day but near curve contracts for front month touched upwards. Revised colder weather forecasts continue to drive the heating demand upwards for the back end of February and March lifting prices, however, prompt prices eased as temperatures for this week remain above seasonal norm. Wind generation is expected to be significantly higher on Thursday which helped to keep prompt Power prices stable. A strengthening Coal price continues to help lift power prices in the UK.
Friday 3rd February 2017 - The UK power prices climbed at the front end yesterday as colder weather revisions raised confidence in a colder back end to February. London is expected to sit up to 4°C below seasonal norms from next week onwards, lifting heating demand in the region. The UK power market was also supported by strength in corresponding NBP Gas market and gains in Coal. Further out on the curve, late weakness in GBP ensured the back end held on to early gains despite some afternoon weakness in Oil. On the prompt, wind generation is expected to remain high on Friday with over 8,000MW available through this method on Thursday
Monday 6th February - UK Power has moved much in the direction of UK Gas this morning, with less drastic changes. Coal prices have dropped slightly this morning, as Oil remains static. The front end of the curve, like NB P, is taking impact from slightly warmer weather runs this morning, whilst the back end has made minimal changes.
Tuesday 7th February 2017 - UK Power has also decreased this morning. Prices are currently coupled to France and the Netherlands, meaning if these drop then so do the UK Power prices. At the moment, most European hub prices are dropping, hence the direction. Also providing downward pressure to the curve is higher temperature predictions and falling Coal prices.
Wednesday 8th February 2017 - UK Power has also decreased this morning, as it continues to move in line with NBP prices. NBP prices are falling as a new LNG cargo is due to arrive in the UK later this month, easing any supply worries and filtering through to the Power curve. The front end of the curve is moving more dramatically as warmer weather runs emerge this morning causing demand forecasts to fall.
Thursday 9th February 2017 - UK Power has also risen this morning as it moves taking direction from rising NBP prices. Slightly colder weather is the main driver for NBP, however for Power rising Oil and Coal prices are creating the impact across the curve. In the US there was an unexpected draw in US Gasoline stores, in turn pushing Oil prices upwards and impacting other European fuel prices.
Friday 10th February 2017 - UK Power has mostly dropped this morning, with some random gains throughout the curve. It is mostly following the trends shown for NBP and most other European gas or Electricity curves. With Oil prices rising, this has limited the movements on the back end, and could continue to impact throughout the day.
Monday 13th February 2017 - UK Power has risen this morning. Following rises over the weekend in line with the NBP. Rather than correcting itself like some of the UK curve has done this morning, we have seen UK Power rise across the board, as the Eggborough Unit is unavailable due to commercial reasons.
Tuesday 14th February 2017 - UK Power has opened with mixed direction. Temperatures are remaining above seasonal norm for the rest of the week; however weather runs have come in this morning determining the back end of February to decrease back down to cold temperature levels. Weather is set to remain the main driver. UK Power still also remains following NBP prices very closely.
Wednesday 15th February 2017 - UK Power prices have followed UK Gas this morning, posting losses. On the front end we are starting to see some upwards shifts following the colder forecast releases. However the back end seems to be reacting to recovering Oil prices and increasing wind generation levels for the next couple of weeks.
Thursday 16th February 2017 - UK Power is closely following NBP, and is posting gains. Similarly to Gas, the curve is reacting to the news about Rough storage, colder weather forecasts and rising Coal prices – as China (world’s biggest Coal producer) still continues to consider output restrictions to avoid a glut. Oil prices continue to move sideways today, as high US inventories continue to counteract OPEC cuts
Friday 17th February 2017 - UK Power once again is closely following the NBP direction. Upward revisions to temperatures, drops in EUA carbon prices and dropping Oil prices have also impacted the curve. Wind levels are also at a good level, which is good for Power prices and will be pulling them downwards.
Monday 20th February 2017 - UK Power has dropped on the prompt; however the rest of the curve is showing gains. This is as Power continues to move in line with NBP Gas and follow Oil gains. Coal prices are also increasing, as we see China have decided not to import Coal from North Korea.
Tuesday 21st February 2017 - UK Power is lacking direction this morning, with the curve moving across the board increasing and decreasing. Impact is seen from rising Oil and Coal prices. Coal prices are rising following supply disruption concerns for China’s coal market, as Beijing announced that is has banned coal exports from North Korea.
Wednesday 22nd February 2017 - UK Power prices have also dropped this morning. Reasoning for this are long range warmer weather forecasts in this morning’s weather run, and high wind levels which are expected to last until at least weekend. Power is still moving closely to Gas, however this morning the fall is not as large as NBP
Thursday 23rd February 2017 - UK Power has also increased this morning, as it continues to move in the same direction to Gas. Other factors include wind level uncertainty and expectations levels could possibly drop and colder weather Tues/Weds next week. However much like Gas the main driver today is the pipeline explosion news.
Friday 24th February 2017 - UK Power has again followed the NBP’s trend and decreased following yesterday’s overdone rises. As Oil prices fall, so does NBP and in turn so does Power. Currently the OPEC cuts used to stabilise sharply dropping Oil prices are being undermined by rises in US stockpiles which are causing prices still to fall.
Monday 27th February 2017 - UK Power this morning has risen, with support from many other continental Power markets. Temperatures are expected to go colder towards the end of next week, and the start of next week. Oil prices have also risen this morning, on the back of supply cuts; however gains are limited by increasing US inventories.
Tuesday 28th February 2017 - UK Power prices have also increased this morning, following yesterday’s drops. It continues to move inline and reflective of UK Gas. As temperatures are set to decrease, we see stronger increases towards the front end of the curve. Wind levels are also returning to around seasonal normal levels rather than the high levels we have been seeing.
- Market Comments March
Wednesday 1st March 2017 - UK Power is again taking direction from UK Gas, following Centrica’s announcement, as Gas declined, so did Power. Temperatures are also seen to return to above or around seasonal normal in the coming weeks; however we are set to see weaker supply contribution from renewables which could impact prices going forward.
Thursday 2nd March 2017 - UK Power like it has been doing for weeks, continues to mimic movements on the UK Gas market. Rallying fuel prices yesterday, generated a strong buying interest in the UK Power market, shifting prices upwards. This seems to have continued this morning, but with warmer temps this may not last all day.
Friday 3rd March 2017 - UK Power has also fallen across the board this morning, as it continues to move in line with NBP. Following milder weather forecasts, stronger wind levels and a slightly weaker Coal price, this is providing the pressure for UK Power prices to decline.
Monday 6th March 2017 - UK Power prices have continued to follow the trend of UK Gas this morning. Warmer weather forecasts for the coming 2 weeks, and better than originally predicted wind levels are adding pressure the curve and pulling prices down.
Tuesday 7th March 2017 - It was a mixed day in the UK power market as near curve contracts lost value, however further dated contracts climbed on the back of late bullish fundamentals. The front month April-17 contract was pressured with falling NBP gas contracts, a boost to the supply outlook with two LNG cargoes set to arrive by 18th March and a warmer revision to upcoming temperatures. Wind generation was expected to rise by 1GW to around 3GW on Tuesday, providing further losses. In the afternoon, significant weakness on GBP and a late surge in Oil and API Coal helped support prices further.
Wednesday 8th March 2017 - UK Power is again following UK Gas. Losses are shown across the whole curve, as weaker Coal, EUA and Oil prices add weight to an already declining price. Wind levels have also been revised upwards from last week’s drops, to show seasonal normal over the weekend.
Thursday 9th March 2017 - UK Power is experiencing pressure from NBP declines. Temperatures are set to further increase, which in turn will reduce demand; this affects the front end of the curve and shows the most losses. Drops in Oil prices, drops in EUA prices and static Coal prices have also adding weight on the curve.
Friday 10th March 2017 - UK Power is still following Gas, again relatively static today following this week’s bearish trend. Main drivers are still milder weather forecasts for the upcoming weeks – this is turn reduces demand and weighs heavily on curves and weaker fuel prices all around. With Oil and Coal both declining as well this again supports the bearish sentiment.
Monday 13th March 2017 - UK Power prices are showing even more reduction that UK Gas. This is all following a winning formula of warm weather forecasts for the coming weeks, good wind levels, gradual increases in solar levels and low Oil prices seen for the last few days as Oil prices fall to a 3 month low.
Tuesday 14th March 2017 - UK Power has increased in line with Gas this morning. The weakening of the Pound is causing increases across the curve as Brexit becomes a more real event. Coal prices have also strengthened this morning, as there are drops in Chinese Coal output.
Wednesday 15th March 2017 - UK Power is mirroring Gas this morning, also showing minimal increases across the curve. Rises on UK Gas and rising Oil following unexpected news are the main drivers for this morning, however drops in Coal priced and lower demand have limited potential rises.
Thursday 16th March 2017 - UK Power has also increased this morning, as it again moved in line with NBP prices. As European fuels become firmer they add support to the Power curve. This along with rising Oil prices and rising Coal prices creates bullish sentiment for the UK Power market.
Friday 17th March 2017 - UK Power has followed the same trend as UK Gas, moving extremely minimally. Temperatures are set to decrease next week, possibly below seasonal normal. We see Oil prices decline this morning following yesterday’s increases, this along with weakness in API2 Coal is creating the slight decreases on the curve.
Monday 20th March 2017 - UK Power is moving in mixed directions this morning. Any downwards movement are following weakness in the natural Gas market. Minor increases are following weaker wind supply forecasts from Wednesday this week, and a stronger Power demand beginning this week.
Tuesday 21st March 2017 - UK Power as usual is moving in the same direction as Gas, and it moving upwards this morning. Oil prices have risen following OPEC’s plans to extend current production cuts which is impacting the curve. Along with drops in wind power generation levels and drops in Solar production the curve has increased across the board.
Wednesday 22nd March 2017 - UK Power has posted losses across the curve this morning, as it continues to move in line with NBP. Temperatures are expected to return to above or around seasonal normal levels again for April and wind levels are expected to start increasing which are both pushing prices down. UK Power is also taking direction from most European fuel prices which are falling this morning.
Thursday 23rd March 2017 - UK Power has again followed its NBP equivalents this morning and moved very minimally. Rising temperatures similarly have affected the front end of the curve, as is pushes heating demand down. As Oil stays around the same level this morning, and Coal rises slightly there is minimum impact to the curve, if anything slight upward corrections from yesterday.
Friday 24th March 2017 - UK Power has moved relatively steady this morning, in comparison to NBP. Following warmer weather forecasts and predictions of better wind generation and renewables this has weighed on the curve. However slight rises on the Coal prices and stability for Oil seem to have limited potential downturn.
Monday 27th March 2017 - UK Power has shown losses from Friday morning, however some rises from Friday afternoon, as Coal prices increase this morning. Prices are falling as Oil shows a decline following rises in US drilling activity. Warmer weather is also set for the coming weeks, reducing demand.
Tuesday 28th March 2017 - UK Power DA this morning has reduced on the back of warm weather forecasts and reduction in Coal prices. The rest of the curve has risen, following NBP Gas prices which rise on the back of a short UK system and rises in Oil.
Wednesday 29th March 2017 - Power prices have also increased this morning, taking trend from NBP. DA prices have dropped following increased wind power generation and weaker demand; however the rest of the curve has shown increases. This is moving in line with rising Oil and Coal prices following disruption in Libya.
Thursday 30th March 2017 - UK Power has also moved up this morning, following the same trend as UK Gas. As Oil and Coal prices rise, it adds support to the curve and pushes prices upwards. Wind levels are expected to keep system prices balanced over the coming days, which hasn’t impacted the curve today.
Friday 31st March 2017 - UK Power prices have risen this morning as Oil and Coal prices continue to rise. Oil rises on the back of the rumoured continuation of the production cuts, whilst Coal prices rise over supply disruptions. The Pound is beginning to recover against the Euro, which is possibly limiting any gains being made.
- Market Comments April
Monday 3rd April 2017 - The whole UK Power curve has posted gains this morning, main drivers being rising Oil and Coal prices. Oil prices have risen as concern over the Global supply glut and extending productions cuts rages on and Coal rises following South African cuts. However warmer temperatures resulting in reducing demand, may be limiting gains potential
Tuesday 4th April 2017 - UK Power has similarly increased this morning, as it takes direction from most rising European fuel markets. Also like most other markets, Coal is a big factor today as prices continue to rise on the back of Cyclone Debbie. Oil has reduced slightly this morning, as the Libyan outage sparking yesterday’s rises has improved today allowing prices to reduce.
Wednesday 5th April 2017 - UK Power is following the same trend as NBP, and taking no direction. As Oil prices rise considerably this morning following outages, this creates a bullish sentiment, but with warmer temperatures and growth in solar capacity, any potential rises are limited.
Thursday 6th April 2017 - UK Power prices have opened moving in mixed directions this morning. Day Ahead prices remain strong from yesterday as they trended with rising European fuels. Oil prices have fallen following rises in US stock levels, and Coal prices are remaining around similar levels as news drops off about the outages caused by Cyclone Debbie.
Friday 7th April 2017 - The UK Power curve followed the upwards trend of its UK counterpart as bullish Oil is supporting the NBP. The Prompt has gained weight from the expectation of strong solar production levels due for this weekend and mild temperatures, and next week wind generation levels are expected to increase. Further gains this morning have been compounded by strong opens to EU ETS Emission Contracts and Coal; API2 and Newcastle are being supported by production disruptions following Cyclone Debbie.
Monday 10th April 2017 - UK Power prices have also dropped this morning, in line with many other European fuels prices. Wind Power generation is set to increase for April, easing the prompt. Also Coal prices have declined over the weekend due to weakening Chinese demand, pulling prices down, and Oil has remained at the same sort of levels as last week.
Tuesday 11th April 2017 - UK Power is also decreasing this morning. NBP prices falling adds weight to the curve, however increases in wind power generation levels and solar are also pushing Power prices down across the curve. Coal prices have fallen again today, however Oil prices are remaining fairly static as geopolitical tensions continue to work against increases in US stocks limiting downward movement.
Wednesday 12th April 2017 - UK Power has also risen today, as it moves in line with NBP trends. Similar to the Gas prices, Oil is affecting the prices. As Oil prices rise following political tension and expectations that cuts will be extended officially in May, this in turn pushes Power prices up. Also less wind and solar generation levels are adding support to already rising prices.
Thursday 13th April 2017 - UK Power has also increased slightly this morning. Again following the Rough announcement, the market increased and has continued to follow this trend this morning. There are also weaker points on the curve as Oil has dropped off slightly on the back of rising US production.
Tuesday 18th April 2017 - UK Power prices have increased this morning, as again they follow similar movements to NBP Gas. Following decreases in temperatures and falling wind generation levels, this is adding support to the curve. Coal prices have remained relatively flat this morning, and Oil has fallen as US production levels increase, this limiting rises.
Wednesday 19th April 2017 - UK Power has also risen this morning. This morning, along with taking support from firmer European Gas prices, expectations of colder temperatures in the coming week are pushing prices upwards. Demand is expected to increase, and with already low wind generation forecasts, this is creating a bullish effect. Also similarly to Gas, the moving currency following the snap election news and decisions is something to look out for with the Power market.
Thursday 20th April 2017 - UK Power prices have dropped this morning, experiencing lighter losses than what has been seen on the NBP. Oil prices steep declines yesterday have played a major part in pushing prices down, as US inventories experience a less than expected decline for the week. This along with appreciation of the Pound following the election decision weighed on prices across the whole curve.
Friday 21st April 2017 - UK Power has moved extremely similarly to the NBP. Cold temperatures are increasing demand this week, however as they are set to rise towards the end of April this is allowing drops. Wind generation levels have also increased today, along with declining Oil and Coal prices also adding weight to the curve.
Monday 24th April 2017 - UK Power had increased majority this morning, however we can a decline for Day-Ahead. Again like NBP, the main driver for this has been the weakening of the Pound against the Euro. There has been a strengthening of 1.16% overnight for the Euro, making it more expensive to purchase anything GBP related. DA prices have declined as Oil prices fall, and temperature forecasts increase for the start of May.
Tuesday 25th April 2017 - UK Power has also dropped this morning, as its tracks the movements of NBP Gas. Pressure on the curve is caused by falling Oil and Coal prices. We are also seeing strong wind generations levels – which relieves pressure from other generations, and adds weight to prices. The DA price has risen on the back of cold weather today, however temperatures are set to get warmer from the start of May, limiting any rise.
Wednesday 26th April 2017 - Following the NBP Gas trend, UK Power has posted decreases across the curve this morning. With weakness in many energy markets, this is weighing on the curve and pulling prices down. As Oil and Coal prices decline, some losses may be limited by the extension of the Hartlepool Nuclear Plant outage, which is expected to carry on into the beginning of May.
Thursday 27th April 2017 - UK Power’s trend is very closely following Gas, as it posts increases across the curve. Coal prices have risen this morning, and this teamed with a weaker Pound is increasing the cost of imports to the UK and in turn pushing prices up across the curve. As with NBP Gas, cooler weather forecasts and an uncertain outlook for the next 2 weeks is also adding pressure to the front of the curve.
Friday 28th April 2017 - As usual, UK Power prices are following the trend of NBP Gas and moving upwards across the curve. Very low wind levels are limiting Wind Power Generation and forcing other methods to be used, increasing prices. Summer nuclear maintenance schedules have been announced, as plants plan to go offline throughout the period. Oil and Coal prices are also rising. Oil as OPEC becomes firmer on whether they will issue another production cut, and Coal on the renewed Queensland supply disruptions.
- Market Comments May
Tuesday 2nd May 2017 - Again UK Power is following the trend of UK Gas prices. This teamed with low wind and solar levels, and strong Continental Power levels is pushing prices up. Most European fuels are rising this morning, adding support to the curve. Strength in demand, as we see a drop in number of LNG arrivals. As temperatures return to around seasonal normal, wind levels have reduced, pushing prices up across the whole curve.
Wednesday 3rd May 2017 - UK Power has followed the trend of NBP, reacting to tightness on the Gas curve. Similar to Gas prices have increased slightly. Temperatures set above seasonal normal for the weekend, however returning to cool for the next 2 weeks following. Heating demand levels still marginally above seasonal normal levels, with Wind Generation levels dropping too – both adding support. However longer daylight hours are extending Solar Generation.
Thursday 4th May 2017 - As usual, drops in UK Gas are affecting UK Power prices, as we see a drop in prices across the curve. Following strong gains on the Power curve in previous sessions, drops in European Fuel markets have allowed a downward correction to the curve. Oil, Coal and Emissions prices have fallen this morning, giving direction for the UK Power market. Today, we are seeing expectations for stronger Wind Power generations and weaker demand.
Friday 5th May 2017 - UK Power prices have fallen this morning, taking direction from weakness in the NBP and Coal markets. API2 Coal swaps have weakened slightly this morning, adding weight to the curve and pushing prices down. NBP prices are falling on the back of sharp losses in the Oil market, in turn providing a trend for UK Power prices to follow. We see lower demand forecasts for today, along with slightly higher solar levels and low wind generation levels.
Monday 8th May 2017 - UK Power has opened mixed this morning, minimal movements across the curve barring DA which rose significantly. Low wind levels for this week have pushed the DA price up significantly. Again UK Power is following the trend of NBP, as it softens on the back of warmer weather expectations, however is limited by falling supply within the UK. Coal prices have remained stable this morning, as we see Oil rising from Fridays sharp losses this morning – however still not as high as Oil prices have been.
Tuesday 9th May 2017 - UK Power prices have similarly moved very minimally, mimicking movements in European fuels. Wind levels are again looking incredibly low. Heating demand is set to decline over the next week, as temperatures increase in the UK over the weekend. Unplanned IFA outages along with 3 efficient Gas plants having issues are adding support to the curve across the board pushing prices up slightly.
Wednesday 10th May 2017 - UK Power has risen this morning, as it takes direction from rising UK Gas prices. Carbon prices have also risen this morning, providing support for the curve. There is also a small French nuclear delay today; however wind levels are improving which is limiting any potential rises.
Thursday 11th May 2017 - Similar to UK Gas, Power has remained at very similar levels to yesterdays close. Wind and Solar levels have increased today, allowing better generation and pushing prices down. Warmer temperatures (expected to reach around 22°C in London) are decreasing Power demand and adding weight to the curve. Rising Oil prices, could cap any potential losses. As we see a fall in US inventories, and Saudi Arabia begin the cuts to Asia – around a 7 million barrel reduction expected for June.
Friday 12th May 2017 - UK Power prices are tracking Gas prices and have followed the downward trend. Front end prices are falling considerably, as wind generation has increased for this weekend. The wind outlook for next week however has been revised down. Due to increased cloud cover over next week, solar forecasts have been revised down. Potentially limiting any decreases. Weakness in Coal and Carbon prices, has also added weight to the curve as other fuels see decreases.
Monday 15th May 2017 - This morning, UK Power prices have found strength from other rising Fuel prices. UK Gas has increased this morning, on the back of a short system and rising Oil, pushing UK Power prices upwards as they follow the trend. Oil prices have increased this morning, as Saudi Arabia and Russia extend their output cuts to March 2018 in order to try and control the global supply glut. We see downward revisions to wind generation for the rest of the week, with a generally low outlook for next week too.
Tuesday 16th May 2017 - UK Power has opened mixed this morning. At the front end we have seen some increases, and towards the back end there is minimal movement. Both Oil and Coal prices have increased this morning. Oil on the back of yesterday’s production cut announcement, this is adding support to the curve. Low wind outlook – expected to fall dramatically tomorrow, and higher cloud cover leading to lower solar generation. Firmer Gas prices, and slow LNG send out are adding weight to the near curve and increasing prices.
Wednesday 17th May 2017 - UK Power prices have moved similarly to the NBP. Lacking direction across the curve. Weak wind generation is expected over the next couple of days, however is expected to increase slightly next week. Increased cloud cover is expected for next week, reducing Solar output forecasts, and along with higher consumption adding support to prices. Coal prices have risen this morning, on the back of Oil price increases, a weaker Dollar and Chinese future movements.
Thursday 18th May 2017 - UK Power prices are moving in mixed directions this morning. Solar levels are set to increase over the weekend, as is wind generation. This is adding downward pressure to the front of the curve. As temperatures stay at a milder level today in the UK, this has a positive effect on prices. A depreciating Pound against the Euro is providing support for the Gas market, in turn affecting Power as the cost of commodity imports from the continent increases.
Friday 19th May 2017 - Prices have opened a touch higher on the far curve of the UK power market this morning taking direction from stronger Coal, Oil & Emissions prices. Closer in on the front end of the curve prices have softened with upcoming forecasts. As we move into next week, solar radiation and wind generation is expected to be high on Monday/ Tuesday with consumption expected to fall. This is linked to increasing temperatures in the UK with overnight weather reports forecasting an above seasonal normal spell for next week. Temperatures in London could reach as high as 25°C.
Monday 22nd May 2017 - Prices in the UK power market have eased as we open the new week with prices trending the losses witnessed on the NBP gas market. Over the weekend, forecast temperatures have been revised upwards which has reduced the gas demand for this week. There could be some increased demand for cooling as temperatures could hit 30°C at the weekend. Prices on the prompt have been eased as wind output has picked up this morning with CCGT demand falling by 15mcm. As we move into next week, wind output is expected to fall, however we are seeing high levels of solar radiation forecast.
Tuesday 23rd May 2017 - The UK Power curve has opened with mixed price movement on Tuesday with the front of the curve easing slightly, however the back remains supported. At the prompt, an increasing level of solar radiation and warmer temperatures helped pressure the curve with prices falling as demand for CCGT reduced. Further out, a strengthening Coal and EU Emission prices helped filter gains through to the Power market. Temperatures in London and the UK are expected to increase towards 30°C this weekend which could lift the demand for cooling and air conditioning.
Wednesday 24th May 2017 - UK Power prices continue to climb as a number of fundamentals continue to support prices. The front end of the power curve remains strong as the warmer forecasts in the UK look set to increase the cooling demand in the region. There has been strength in the NBP gas market on Wednesday morning due to a short system and lower Norwegian flows which has provided a further boost to power prices. Further out increases in Coal, EU ETS Emissions and Brent continue to support the curve.
Thursday 25th May 2017 - The UK power prices continue to drift up slowly on Thursday, opening slightly higher than Wednesday’s close. At the front of the curve, warm weather, significantly above seasonal norm continues to lift the cooling demand. The wind generation and solar levels are sitting above seasonal average however, from Monday next week these are expected to fall which means more expensive electricity generation methods will be required. Further out, strength in EU Emission Carbon and Oil prices have supported the back end.
Friday 26th May 2017 - The front of the UK Power curve continues to hold some strength with prices gaining slightly this morning. The front of the curve and prompt contracts are currently being impacted by the significantly warmer weather lifting the cooling demand for the region. Strength in Carbon prices continue to help lift the back of the curve and a weakening pound also contributed to further dated prices ticking upwards.
Tuesday 30th May 2017 - UK Power prices have also increased this morning, mainly on the back of falling wind generation. Wind levels are expected to fall and remain weak this week, however from next week onwards, we can expect a stronger outlook. Cloudier weather is expected next week, forcing solar forecasts to decrease. Increasing temperatures are limiting rises and could cause potential losses later in the week.
Wednesday 31st May 2017 - UK Power prices have been in mixed directions this morning, as they react to juxtaposing factors. There is uncertainty around Solar forecasts this week, and wind generation levels remain low. They are however expected to increase next week. Coal prices increased on the back of a lack of liquidity yesterday, in turn they pushed each other’s prices up. Today Coal prices have flattened. Oil prices have decreased this morning as US production and Libyan output have increased, squashing any gains made following the OPEC extension plans.
- Market Comments June
Thursday 1st June 2017 - UK Power has again been relatively mixed this morning, however minimal changes. Little change in the wind and solar forecast, slightly better forecasts for wind generation next week, and solar expected to fall. Coal prices have softened slightly this morning, offering weight to the curve. Limiting any losses, is Oil, as it rises to a 3 week high after uncertainty surrounding whether the US will pull out of a global climate accord, threatening to increase Oil demand.
Friday 2nd June 2017 - UK Power prices have moved in different directions this morning, posting losses and gains across the board. Wind and Solar generation are both expected to increase over the weekend, and next week we should see higher wind generation and lower solar, as cloud coverage increases. UK Power prices will be taking some downward momentum from decreasing NBP prices, as they react to a healthy system and falling Oil prices. Coal prices have stabilised again this morning, remaining at similar levels to yesterday, offering no real impact to this morning’s prices.
Monday 5th June 2017 - UK Power prices have also increased this morning. As with most countries, reacting to the news of Gulf countries cutting ties with Qatar, and rising Coal prices. Coal prices have increased again this morning, as it still reacts to the news of the US exiting the Paris Climate Change agreement. As some Middle Eastern countries vow to cut their ties with Qatar, uncertainty surrounding this decision has impacted the curve as uncertainty starts to filter through to prices. We can see strong wind levels for this week, however this is expected to drop off over the weekend.
Tuesday 6th June 2017 - UK Power prices have remained at the same sort of levels seen yesterday afternoon. Again following the UK Gas trend. High wind generation and lower solar is expected for the remainder of this week, with this swapping places next week as mid next week wind generation is expected to be extremely weak. Power burn forecasts have fallen for today and tomorrow, whereas next week should see greater as wind decreases. Oil prices have fallen this morning on the back of the Middle East rift, Coal however has risen this morning, limiting any losses.
Wednesday 7th June 2017 - UK Power prices have followed the same trend as NBP today. Staying at similar levels to yesterday. Wind levels have been revised stronger over the next couple of days, with levels over the weekend especially picking up. Lower wind forecasts for the start of next week have been pushed back coinciding with stronger Solar the beginning of next week. Higher wind levels, teamed with warmer weather forecasts this week for the UK have helped ease prices on the prompt and limit any potential rises. Oil prices have increased this morning, as the rift in the Middle East continues to cause problems along with falling US Crude Inventories. However the continuing global supply glut limits rises.
Thursday 8th June 2017 - UK Power prices have remained at similar levels to yesterday’s prices. Posting a slightly higher rise for the front of the curve. Wind generation is expected to continue its strong run until mid-next week, when it is expected to get progressively weaker. As cloud coverage decreases and high pressure comes in, solar is expected to increase from mid next week, as wind levels wind down. As with NBP prices, the fall in Oil prices has limited any drastic rises that could potentially be made by rising demand and a short system.
Friday 9th June 2017 - This morning, UK Power is taking support from a rising NBP market and weakening of the pound. NBP Prices have risen this morning, on the back of a weakening pound against the Euro following the General Election and supply concerns – as 2 LNG cargoes expected at St Fergus diverted yesterday. Coal prices have risen this morning, as the feud between Poland and Europe continues. As the funding base shrinks, Poland is considering a change in direction, adding strength to prices. Oil prices have continued to fall this morning, on the back of system oversupply pulling prices down. Again similar to the UK this could limit rises from other bullish drivers.
Monday 12th June 2017 - UK Power prices have fallen this morning, however DA has increased significantly, down to weak wind. Wind generation levels are very low this morning, however forecasts for this week have increased in comparison to Friday, as low pressure affects northern regions. Solar production is relatively strong this week, adding a bearish factor to the curve. UK temperatures are cool today, but temperatures are set to increase this week, with temperatures staying above seasonal normal, in turn reducing demand.
Tuesday 13th June 2017 - UK Power prices have fallen on the front end this morning, and have shown increases towards the back end of the curve. The remainder of the working week, forecasts look to show expected weak wind generation. This is set to change on Friday, as we should see some increases. Oil levels have increased this morning, offering support to the curve. Saudi Arabia have hinted that they will make significant supply cuts to Asia in a statement released.
Wednesday 14th June 2017 - UK Power prices have also fallen this morning. Falling Power prices this morning are supported by, decreases in Oil and EUA prices, as this offers weight to the curve. Warm weather in the UK for the next 10 days, has weighed down the front end of the curve.
Thursday 15th June 2017 - UK Power prices have also fallen this morning, similarly following the trend set by decreases in demand. Weather in the UK, is set to be very warm this weekend and into early next week, this warm period has potential to last for the foreseeable, prompting demand levels to fall. Wind levels are falling slightly today, as Solar output is set to increase due to high pressure. Wind however is expected to pick up again towards the end of next week.
Friday 16th June 2017 - UK Power prices have followed the NBP’s trend and have marginally increased. This is down to a short system in the UK and decreases in wind generation. Over the weekend, wind generation levels are expected to decrease and remain weak in comparison to recent levels, Solar is expected to increase over the weekend. Oil prices have increased this morning, adding support to the curves. This happens as export halts take place in Libya.
Monday 19th June 2017 - UK Power has also increased this morning, as is follows the trend set by NBP Gas. Wind levels are extremely weak today, however it is set to pick up throughout the weak. Moving the opposite to wind, Solar levels remain strong today, however they are set to fall off towards the end of the week, when wind is set to increase. Oil prices have fallen slightly this morning, as figures for US drilling rise, potentially adding to the already impactful global supply glut.
Tuesday 20th June 2017 - UK Power prices have also opened with increases this morning, reacting to the increases in Gas following the Rough announcement. Following extremely weak wind generation levels this week, wind is expected to increase towards the end of the week, particularly Friday and Saturday. It is then expected to stabilise next week. UK Gas prices have risen this morning on the back of a short UK system (a lot shorter than we have been seeing in the last couple of weeks), and news surrounding the permanent closure of the UK’s Rough storage site. Possibly limiting rises this morning, is the fall in Oil prices. Prices continue to fall as consistent signs of rising supply undermine any OPEC attempts to limit supply.
Wednesday 21st June 2017 - UK Power prices have also risen this morning, taking trend from rising UK Gas prices. UK Gas prices are rising on the back of a short NBP system, adding pressure to Power prices and pushing prices upwards. Expectations for wind generation to become very strong on Friday and Saturday are still set, with solar levels expected to reduce from tomorrow. Power demand has been high this week and will continue today, due to hot conditions and air con demand. This should dip next week as fresher temperatures come in for the UK.
Thursday 22nd June 2017 - Cooler weather in the UK for the coming week reduced the air con demand and helped prompt contracts ease on Thursday morning. Increased cloud cover has reduced the solar generation levels for Thursday. Expectation of strong wind generation over the course of the weekend before retreating back to average levels into next week. Weakness in the Coal & Oil markets on Wednesday helped pressure the curve with Oil holding its lowest price for 10 months.
Friday 23rd June 2017 - Similarly, UK Power prices are on the rise this morning, reacting to cooler weather forecasts for the coming week. UK weather forecasts have expected it to be much fresher next week, with increasingly unsettled conditions. Oil prices have increased this morning, downward correcting for the extreme losses we have seen throughout this week. As UK Gas prices have risen this morning, due to the cool weather outlooks and a short UK system, this has added support to the Power curve.
Monday 26th June 2017 - UK Power prices have also increased this morning, however day ahead prices have fallen after downward correction from drastic rises on Friday. This week, wind levels are expected to increase, whilst solar levels decrease. Oil prices have increased this morning on the back of a weaker US dollar – as predictions suggest that the Federal Reserve won’t increase interest rates again later this year. UK Gas prices have risen this morning on the back of a short UK system and rising Oil, this adds support to the UK Power curve.
Tuesday 27th June 2017 - UK Power prices have opened mixed this morning, with gains and losses across the curve. Gains made on the UK Gas curve this morning, are filtering through to sections of the Power curve. Gas is rising on the back of rising Oil prices and fresher temperatures for this week. Temperatures are cooler this week, however they are expected to return warm and around seasonal normal next week, increasing expected levels of cooling demand in July. Oil and Coal prices are rising this morning, offering support to the curve. However rises in Oil are capped as oversupply continues to reign over the Oil market.
Wednesday 28th June 2017 - UK Power prices have increased this morning, on the back of weakening wind generation levels and rising Coal prices. Wind generation levels are expected to weaken towards the end of this week, as the weather takes a warmer turn. As the warm weather arrives, Solar generation is expected to increase. Coal prices have continued to increase this morning, on the back of a weakening Dollar value, along with thermal and coking coal prices trading back up again. Oil prices have dropped of this morning, as downward pressure from rising US Crude inventories continues. This could be limiting gains on the Power curve.
Thursday 29th June 2017 - UK Power prices have also risen this morning, on the back of drops in wind generation and Oil prices. Wind generation has begun its decline this morning, as temperatures are set to get warmer over the weekend and in turn solar levels increase. Oil prices have increased this morning on the back of falling US gasoline inventories. This in turn is providing support for the Power curve. UK Gas prices have increased this morning on the back of IUK coming back online, unplanned maintenance and higher Oil prices, this has defined a trend for Power to follow.
Friday 30th June 2017 - Wind generation is forecasted to increase over the weekend and early into next week, thus reducing power burn levels; this combined with a forecast for strong solar generation levels and a low open at the NBP are adding weight to prompt contracts.
- Market Comments July
Monday 3rd July 2017- UK Power prices have opened mixed this morning, with gains and losses across the curve. Temperatures are cooler this week, however they are expected to return warm and around seasonal normal, increasing expected levels of cooling demand this month.
Tuesday 4th July 2017 - UK Power prices have opened mixed this morning, with gains and losses mixed across the board. Both Solar and Wind levels are weak at the minute, wind being extremely weak. This is increasing Power burn and offering support to the curve. Wind is expected to remain weak over the coming days, as Solar is forecast to rise. The UK temperatures seem to be increasing and next week are expected to head back to around seasonal normal levels. Predictions are this will reduce Power burn. Oil prices have fallen this morning, as the market relaxes ready for Americas Independence Holiday.
Wednesday 5th July 2017 - UK Power has increased this morning, following UK Gas and reacting to weak wind and rising Coal prices. As UK Gas prices have risen this morning, on the back of low liquidity and a short system, this has added support to the Power curve as it follows the trend. Wind generation levels are currently very weak, but as cooler conditions return next week, this is expected to increase. Oil has remained relatively stable today, but over the span of the Oil rises, this has in turn pushed Coal prices up as well, offering support to UK Power across the curve.
Thursday 6th July 2017 - Power markets are still watching coal intensively. For a number of weeks in a row coal has as the only commodity managed to continuously climb pricewise. There is no support from oil, gas or emissions but the move is sufficient to drive power prices up. Yesterday coal continued up while gas, oil and emission all came off. The continental power markets followed coal up while the UK power market were more focused on gas prices coming off. It’s questionable if the elevated levels in coal are sustainable and if this market starts to correct down power prices both in the UK and on the continent will follow.
Friday 7th July 2017 - UK Power prices have fallen this morning, with increases on the day ahead. Wind is set to pick up next week, however the forecast is slightly weaker compared to yesterday, in turn increasing within day power burn. Temperatures are set to be warm and dry this weekend, with sporadic rain and breeze next week. Oil prices have dropped this morning, on the back of increased US production levels. This in turn has added weight across the curve.
Monday 10th July 2017 - UK Power prices haven’t moved much this morning, and have remained at the same sort of levels we saw Friday close of play. Wind generation levels have dropped again this week, with next week looking even weaker. Solar levels are expected to fall tomorrow, however this is then looking to pick up and remain at a relatively stable level for the rest of the week. Coal prices have risen this morning as the Asian market recovers, which seems to have shaken off the initial shock around Chinese coal import decreases.
Tuesday 11th July 2017 - This morning, UK power is down following gas in a predictable fashion and a slight change to the weather. All eyes are on the forecasts as warmer than normal conditions are set to return while some minor gains in renewables are also expected. The Prompt has tracked the low open at the NBP while the far curve has taken direction from weakening API2 coal contracts
Wednesday 12th July - Wind generation and temperatures remain the same from yesterday as we are set to have strong wind generation during the weekend weighing on its respective contracts, and low wind generation in the weekdays. Solar generation is forecasted to increase over the next three days, however similar to wind it is set to decrease into the weekend. The DA fell downwards as taking direction the weak NBP Prompt and Front-month which has widened the Aug/Sep17 even further.
Thursday 13th July 2017 - Wind generation and temperatures remain the same from yesterday as we are set to have strong wind generation during the weekend weighing on its respective contracts, and low wind generation in the weekdays. Solar generation is forecasted to increase over the next three days, however similar to wind it is set to decrease into the weekend. CCGT demand has increased due to lower renewable generation, and the Prompt has taken direction from weakened corresponding NBP contracts and the prospect of a bearish weekend.
Friday 14th July 2017 - This morning, gas, carbon and coal are down slightly and with them all three power markets. Despite the softer feedstocks the market remains support by the ongoing maintenance surrounding France’s nuclear fleet which has further delays to the return of up to 3000 MW. Weather forecasts point to improved renewables production next week coupled with mild temperatures which should be bearish for spot prices.
Monday 17th July 2017 - Power prices rose in the UK power market on Friday following a modest increase on the NBP gas curve and a move up in coal. This morning, gas coal and oil prices are all up which is priced into gains on the UK power. Forecasts for most of NW Europe show a trend towards cooler temperatures, a respite from the heat coupled with increased rain and wind is expected this week.
Tuesday 18th July 2017 - The UK Power curve has opened mixed this morning, but prices haven’t really swayed drastically from yesterdays close. Wind generation levels are beginning to ramp up slightly, this should continue coming into the weekend. Solar levels remain strong today, but as the weather begins to take a cooler turn towards the end of the week, Solar generations levels are expected to dip. Oil prices have declined this morning, as continued fear of oversupply adds to the current world panic surrounding the global supply glut.
Wednesday 19th July 2017 - UK Power prices have remained very similar to yesterdays close this morning. Wind levels are set to strengthen this afternoon, and then fall again for a lower forecast tonight, the weekend is set for low wind levels also. Solar levels are below daily normal at the minute, but are expected to come up mid next week. Coal prices have continued their rally today, as Chinese demand continues to increase.
Thursday 20th July 2017 - UK Power prices have also posted rises this morning, using bullish drivers and following the trend set by UK Gas. Wind levels are expected to pick up tomorrow, however they will weaken over the weekend and early next week. From tomorrow onwards Solar generation levels are expected to drop off, however at the start of next week we are expected to see increases. Oil prices have risen this morning, on the back of reductions in US crude stockpiles.
Friday 21st July 2017 - UK Power prices this morning have opened fairly static and in line with yesterday’s prices. Stronger wind forecasts and weaker demand, are attempting to offset lower Solar generation levels. Coal prices are continuing to rise this week, as the Chinese heat wave continues, and a firm seaborn coking coal market adds strength, this in turn adding support to prices. The UK Power market is also continually taking direction from UK Gas, as it increases on the back of again a short UK system.
Monday 24th July 2017 - UK Power has fallen this morning, taking trend from NBP movements. Wind generation is on the up from Wednesdays onwards, showing particular strong levels Thursday and Friday of this week. Solar levels are expected to drop off mid this week. Before picking up again Sunday. Oil prices have fallen this morning, in anticipation for today’s OPEC meeting around production.
Tuesday 25th July 2017 - UK Power has also made little to no change this morning, following the footsteps of UK Gas.
Solar is expected to turn very low tomorrow, whilst wind is expected to ramp up. Nuclear availability within the system is expected to be better this week, currently generating just under 8GW, this is expected to increase more in August. Oil prices have strengthened this morning, following yesterday’s OPEC meeting where Saudi Arabia pledged to decrease their exports from next month onwards, OPEC also encouraged several other members to boost compliance to output cuts in order to tackle the global supply glut.
Wednesday 26th July 2017 - UK Power prices have risen this morning, following the movement made by NBP. Wind generation levels have ramped up today, and expected to remain strong up until the weekend and into the start of next week. Solar forecasts remain uncertain. Oil prices have continued to rise this morning as US crude stocks show decline, in turn pushing Coal prices up. Both commodities are impacting Power prices.
Thursday 27th July 2017 - UK Power has opened relatively in line with yesterdays close this morning. Wind levels are strengthening today, and look very good for tomorrow, however this is expected to lower over the weekend and into next week. Significant supply increase expected for the coming weeks, as numerous nuclear units are set to return in both Germany and France. Oil prices have remained at a high level this morning as the drop in US crude stocks still continues to have an effect on the market.
Friday 28th July 2017 - UK Power has also remained at levels seen at yesterdays close. High wind generation levels for today, however this is expected to dip over the weekend and into next week. Solar levels are low today, but are expected to improve over the weekend. Oil prices have increased again this morning (6 day rally), as the market continues to process news of falling US crude stocks and OPEC’s plans for stricter production cuts. As UK Gas has also remained stable this morning and close to yesterdays close, this provides a trend for Power to follow.
Monday 31st July 2017 - Power prices have climbed this morning and are higher than Friday close. High CCGT demand for Electricity today (Up 12mcm from Friday), despite high renewable levels. Solar is strong for the start of the week, before easing and reducing by Wednesday. Power prices are following the strength in Gas prices and increases in Brent Crude
- Market Comments August
Tuesday 1st August 2017 - Prompt power prices have remained relatively strong since yesterday but the back end of the curve has posted some losses upon Tuesday’s open. Wind generation is forecast to be weak through Tuesday, however picking up from midday Wednesday. Solar energy is forecast to increase from Thursday onwards. Strong Q4-17 Peakload price following a rally in Coal price on lift in Chinese demand.
Wednesday 2nd August 2017 - Power prices tumbled down across the UK, driven down by a sizeable drop in coal, a retracement in gas and persistently wet conditions in the Nordics. Temperatures are expected to remain mild, around average, the next couple weeks with a bit more production from renewables which is expected to keep spot prices in check while falling coal and oil prices apply some downward pressure to the longer dated contracts.
Thursday 3rd August 2017 - UK Power prices have risen this morning, however most prices are staying close to yesterday’s closing levels. Wind forecasts are strong for the rest of the working week, however decreases are expected over the weekend and are looking weaker coming into next week. Coal plants are needing to be turned on, and the Interconnector is reversing flow to support UK supply following very low UK overnight prices.
Friday 4th August 2017 - UK Power prices have risen this morning, with stronger gains on the front end of the curve. Wind generation levels are strong today, however they are expected to fall from tomorrow onwards. Solar levels are expected to increase tomorrow, but weaken again from Monday onwards.
Monday 7th August 2017 - UK Power prices have also risen today, following UK Gas trends. Wind generation is low, and is expected to decrease further tomorrow. Wednesday we are expected to see improvements, but from Monday next week onwards it is weak once again. Solar levels are expected to remain weak, for the coming fortnight. Oil prices have edged down slightly this morning, however with remaining support, they are still staying around the nine week high level.
Tuesday 8th August 2017 - UK Power prices have also fallen this morning, taking impact from UK Gas movement and decreases in Oil prices. There is a mixed unsettled outlook for the UK. Suggest some dry, calmer and sunnier days, but also still several breezier ones, creating an uneven picture for wind and solar generation levels. UK Gas has fallen this morning, on the back of a near balanced system and lower Oil prices, adding weight to the Power curve. Oil prices have dropped this morning, as a recovery in output from Libya’s largest Oil field and doubts around OPEC-led cuts impact prices.
Wednesday 9th August 2017 - UK Power has done exactly the same as UK Gas, posting increases. A mixed and unsettled outlook for the UK is affecting Power prices, as wind and solar generation have no steady prediction levels. Day Ahead prices are up this morning, due to low wind and an unplanned Nuclear outage at Hinkley Point B Unit 7 (this is due to return 23rd August). Oil prices have declined slightly this morning, over continuing doubts whether OPEC can head up the production cuts needed to stabilise the global supply glut.
Thursday 10th August 2017 - UK Power prices have also rose today, impacted by UK Gas rises and low generation levels. A jump in wind generation levels is expected tomorrow, but it is then expected to dip over the weekend. Towards the end of next week, it is expected to strengthen. As temperatures for the UK hover below seasonal normal, solar output is predicted to remain low for the next couple of weeks. Oil prices have also risen this morning, adding support to the curve. This is following a fall in US Crude inventories which is more than initially expected. Rising over a $1.
Friday 11th August 2017 - UK power prices have remained around yesterday’s closing levels this morning. Some wind and solar generation is expected today for South East England, however other areas remain much cloudier.2 Nuclear units are offline, Dungeness Unit 2 and Hinkley B Unit 8. Offering support to the curve and limiting losses. Oil prices have fallen this morning, following OPEC’s report on production yesterday. However Coal prices have continued to firm from yesterday, again limiting any losses.
Monday 14th August 2017 - Power has followed its NBP commodity counterpart at the open with a long system applying weight to the Prompt. Forecasted wind generation is set to rise later this week, thus power burn should fall. However next week wind levels are set to fall back to lower levels. Solar generation in the UK is forecasted to increase this week with spells of sunny weather, something which has been rarely experienced so far this month.
Tuesday 15th August 2017 - There is little change in the UK Power market this morning but any movement has been downwards. The UK Power market is trending the gas which saw losses on Monday and upon today’s open. Wind generation has fallen today, however wind levels are expected to increase from tomorrow into the back end of the week. There has been weakness further out in the Power market as Brent Crude shed value on Monday, with further losses seen this morning as the Dollar continues to strengthen.
Wednesday 16th August 2017 - The UK power market saw losses on the prompt on Wednesday morning with higher wind generation and a weaker demand as temperatures remain below seasonal normal. Temperatures are set to climb for the final few days in August but forecasts of below seasonal average temperatures in September helped pressure front month prices as demand is likely to remain weak. Further out, European coal swaps weakened which help to push further contract prices downwards on Tuesday. There is some risk in a lift at the prompt for the remainder of the week with an increase in cloud cover and lower wind generation expected. An increase in NBP Gas and Brent Crude price helped offset further losses on the back end of the curve on Tuesday.
Thursday 17th August 2017 - UK Power prices have also risen considerably this morning, mainly on the back of the French Nuclear news. Wind levels are strong from now until Saturday, however there is expected drops from Sunday onwards. Solar levels are stable for the next few days. French Nuclear news is the main driver for Power at the moment. ASN want to impose safety reviews 2 months prior to back online for all planned maintenance periods, essentially meaning delays could start. 12 units are expected to have downtime in the coming months.
Friday 18th August 2017 - UK Power prices have also increased this morning, following NBP trends. Wind levels are forecast strong for today and tomorrow, however a steep decline is expected tomorrow evening. Solar levels are stable. The industry is still digesting the French Nuclear story, creating volatile markets across the board. Oil increased yesterday afternoon, however now it is starting to decline as part of a broad based selloff across markets.
Monday 21st August 2017 - UK Power prices have also risen across the board this morning. With stronger increases on the front end. Changes to the front end of the forecast – calmer and cloudier weather is expected for today and tomorrow, reducing Solar generation levels. Again volatile predictions for wind over the coming weeks as windy risks still remain, but weather runs over the weekend suggest calmer periods. The UK Power prices are taking massive impact from rising UK Gas prices, as they rise dramatically following an extremely short system opening this morning.
Tuesday 22nd August 2017 - UK Power prices have opened mixed this morning. With high losses for DA. During today, wind levels are low, however tomorrow is expected to be breezier. Higher Spark spreads for September and winter, as UK Gas prices fall this morning. Winter peak load prices have increased, as we start to see the impact from a tight system.
Wednesday 23rd August 2017 - Power has also remained in line with yesterday’s closing levels during todays open. Today wind generation levels are at seasonal normal, over the weekend it is expected to reduce. With stronger levels expected next week. As the weather forecast is unsettled in the UK, solar is expected to perform below average in the coming week. Power as usual this morning, is following UK Gas trends.
Thursday 24th August 2017 - UK Power prices have risen this morning, more than UK Gas contracts. Wind generation levels are low today and over the weekend, but as cooler breezier weather hits early next week we should see rises. French Nuclear concerns continue, as added safety inspections take place – potentially uncovering problems or taking longer than planned and affecting prices. Solar is performing below average at the minute, offering support.
Friday 25th August 2017 - This morning, UK power continues to make minor gains in the UK and Germany despite slightly cheaper coal and gas, while the gains in the Nordics are attributed to drier conditions. Overall prices look to continue to receive support from maintenance in the gas market throughout September and fears over the return of the French nuclear fleet.
Tuesday 29th August 2017 - Wind generation levels are low for today and expected to remain this way for the coming week. Power prices have remained relatively flat in comparison to UK gas market upon open this week. Cooler than average weather conditions in the UK are set to reduce the power demand for air conditioning this week. French Nuclear availability issues have eased slightly offering some downside to the curve. The GBP continues its recent struggle against the Euro, dropping to below 1.0800.
Wednesday 30th August 2017 - The UK power prices continue to climb, following gas counterpart in the NBP market. Weak Solar and Wind generation levels ensured a higher gas and power burn for electricity generation lifted prices. Temperatures in the UK are expected to fall by up to 5°C which helped to offset any further gains as demand is expected to reduce. The far contracts continue to climb as uncertainty continues to remain around the French Nuclear availability following the announcement of a review into safety.
Thursday 31st August 2017 - The UK is expected to continue to see low wind generation levels today and tomorrow but solar generation is good for the next 48 hours. The temperatures are expected to remain at/ below seasonal normal until the weekend ensuring a reduced demand on the air conditioning, although temperatures are expected to pick up next week. Brent Crude prices eased off on Wednesday helping to pressure the back of the curve whilst Coal prices saw some downward movement offering further impetus on the back of the curve. The strength in GBP also helped to ease the back end of the market.
- Market Comments September
Friday 1st September 2017 - Low wind levels are expected in the UK, following the weekly trend. However, this looks to be offset by solar as output looks strong for the weekend and temperatures are easing demand. The UK power market continues to extend its losses into this morning, taking direction from weakness in European coal. Sterling has also strengthened and is offsetting the lowering of prices further out, as any UK traders are discouraged from buying more expensively.
Monday 4th September 2017 - Prices at the front end of the UK Power curve have opened softer than on Friday’s close with the far curve gaining some value. The front end is pressured by an expectation of windier weather for the week, helping to significantly increase renewable generation. Temperatures are set to fall this week to at/ below seasonal norm which is also helping to reduce the cooling demand. Strength in Brent Crude and NBP gas prices on the far curve are helping to support power prices from 2018 onwards.
Tuesday 5th September 2017 - Wind generation in the UK is set to remain strong up until Friday, where then a steep drop is expected, leading to higher power burn going forwards. As temperatures are set below seasonal normal for the coming weeks, solar output is expected to remain weak. Oil prices have remained stable this morning, as Hurricane Irma seems to decrease demand, and refinery restarts are set to increase demand.
Tuesday 5th September 2017 - Prices have opened upwards this morning in comparison to the close in the UK power market. Forecasts suggest a windier outlook for the weak which is helping the renewable energy generation supply at the front. Further out, Power prices were impacted by increasing Coal, Brent and strengthening NBP gas prices on Monday with this continuing upon Tuesday’s open. A weaker GBP against the Euro also helped to support power prices further out on the curve.
Wednesday 6th September 2017 - Prices have increased in the UK Power market on Wednesday across the curve, with the exception of prompt and front month contracts. An increase in windier conditions likely to persist in the UK for the coming week has helped to increase the renewable generation in the fuels mix, reducing the gas demand for power burn. Further out in the curve, a bullish day in European Carbon and emission prices weighed into the market, supporting further dated contracts. Prices for December delivery EUA’s climbed by approximately €0.55, with similar gains posted across all EUA futures. Coal prices continue to climb, offering further support to UK Power prices. The 2018 Coal price broke through the $80t this morning, currently holding $80.20 at time of writing.
Thursday 7th September 2017 - The UK power curve has seen gains on Thursday’s open, with all contract periods showing some small gains with the exception of the prompt. A more unsettled period of weather is bringing a stronger wind generation to the UK for the next 8 – 10 days which has help to pressure the front month. European Emissions and Coal prices continued to strengthen on Wednesday leading to further support on the back of the curve. Coal remains priced above $80/t. Solar outlook in the UK looks poor for the next fortnight.
Friday 8th September 2017 - Power markets are taking input from bullish sentiment in both gas, coal and emissions. Although yesterday’s session ended unchanged/slightly down it’s impossible not to feel strong underlying support. There is no doubt that prices are elevated and that such a development often is paired with a correction down at some point but it doesn’t look like it being today. The market is still left with a lot of uncertainty in relation the French nuclear fleet and as long as this weighs on the market players are reluctant on the sell-side.
Monday 11th September 2017 - Wind generation is high this week, however it’s expected to drop off Thursday/Friday, with falls expected from next week onwards. For the next couple of weeks, weak Solar levels are expected. Oil prices have increased this morning, on the back of the Saudi Oil minister’s speeches.
Tuesday 12th September 2017 - Wind generation in the UK is set to remain strong up until Friday, where then a steep drop is expected, leading to higher power burn going forwards. As temperatures are set below seasonal normal for the coming weeks, solar output is expected to remain weak. Oil prices have remained stable this morning, as Hurricane Irma seems to decrease demand, and refinery restarts are set to increase demand.
Wednesday 13th September 2017 - Wind generation for the UK has been revised upwards this week, with Friday and Saturday looking stronger – this all on the back of Storm Aileen. Solar output is set to fall at the beginning of next week, expectations are that this will create strong Power burn. Heavy losses for the winter products in the French power market have been impacting UK Power. Oil prices have fallen slightly this morning, as US stockpiles rise. However losses are limited, as OPEC announce that there should be a higher demand for crude next year.
Thursday 14th September 2017 - Little change in wind generation from yesterday. Levels are expected to drop off and remain relatively weak into next week. Solar levels are relatively stable at present, mid next week we could see some minor falls before seeing Solar pick back up again. Gains for Carbon have been translating onto the Power curves and pushing prices upwards. Oil prices have steadied this morning, holding onto yesterday’s gains, as the IEA forecast a strong demand for Oil.
Friday 15th September 2017 - There has been large downward revisions on intra-day and day ahead, but wind forecasts for next week are now looking a lot better. Solar output is expected to increase over the weekend, before decreasing mid next week. After this increases are expected once again.
Monday 18th September 2017 - Friday was correction day in the European power markets. The weakness from Thursday afternoon continued into Fridays trading, and with gas, coal and carbon down, power had nowhere to go but down. Only Nordic power was a bit supported by drier weather. As we have reiterated a few times, the markets were in for a correction, and this was what we got on Friday. There wasn’t a lot of news out there, but markets just came off. A strengthening of the UK pound helped push UK power prices down more than their continental counterparts. As we have also mentioned, the size of the correction should be limited, as we still have a lot of uncertainty out there. The situation with the French nukes is still unresolved, and we don’t have any clarity as to how ASN interprets the documents sent to the so far by EDF. How the European carbon market reform will end is also uncertain, and we are approaching the winter with the usual nervousness about that. Coal was off another 50 $cent this morning, but has already bounced since then, and even though markets are off from the morning, downside looks limited from here for now.
Tuesday 19th September 2017 - Power prices in the UK followed a pattern set out by the UK gas market with a drop in the spot, narrowing the spot front month spread and gains across the curve drive by falling currency and gains in the price of coal. German power also moved up with coal except on the spot where prices fell, While the Nordics were quite weak on increased hydro reservoirs and more precipitation. This morning, gas prices are softer which should apply some very modest downward pressure to power in the UK, German power is mostly flat with a coal market the is unchanged in early trade, while finally, the Nordics have bounced back on a shift towards a drier forecast.
Wednesday 20th September 2017 - Wind generation levels are set to remain steady over the next few days, however early next week forecasts show less windy conditions. Solar output is expected to remain weak over the next couple of days. However is should pick up on Friday, then drop off again into next week. Oil prices have risen this morning, after the Iraqi Oil minister has said that OPEC and other crude producers are considering extending supply cuts and a recorded smaller than expected rise in US crude inventories.
Thursday 21st September 2017 - This morning, coal prices are down driving Germany lower while weakness in gas should be bearish for UK power, the Nordics are dealing lower in early trade on slightly wetter conditions and the weakening price in Germany. Carbon prices were dealt lower yesterday, with the power complex and today they are following the market down this morning.
Friday 22nd September 2017 - Power prices took a thrashing yesterday, falling in the UK by around three-quarters of a pound, while the German power market was down 75cents and the Nordics shed almost the same value. Losses in the value of power contracts was driven by a large drop in the price of coal, coupled with dipping natural gas and carbon prices. This morning, power remains under pressure with gas dealing lower, coal offered at the same price as the close and carbon credits slipping slightly. On the renewables front, forecasts show a modest uptick in wind and solar into next week before both subside near the end of the first week of October.
Monday 25th September 2017 - As UK temperatures are set to turn colder, expectations of wind generation are picking up this weekend, early next week – before dropping off again. Very weak Solar output today, however this is expected to pick up slightly from tomorrow. Oil prices have also fallen this morning, in light of a stronger Dollar standing.
Tuesday 26th September 2017 - Wind generation is looking very volatile currently. Levels are expected to pick up tomorrow, before falling off again towards to end of the week. Solar output is expected to remain steady until Sunday, where it is expected to fall slightly then potentially pick back up. Carbon prices have increased considerably this morning, offering support to prices. Oil prices reached a 26-month high yesterday, they have stabilised this morning, but could potentially cause volatility to the curve.
Wednesday 27th September 2017 - Power prices fell across the UK, Germany and the Nordics yesterday following weakness in the broader energy complex where coal, gas, carbon and oil took losses. This morning, the losses continue in power with German and Nordic power trading down on increased hydro production and a dip in coal prices. Gas prices are lower so the UK should follow suite when the market gets up and running. A large drop in French power prices was noted yesterday, despite no news on the French nuclear situation and a minor delay in the return on some units that was mentioned today. Despite the drops across the broader complex, oil is up modestly on a very small draw in weekly stocks.
Thursday 28th September 2017 - Power prices fell across Europe and the UK yesterday with the greatest losses taking place in the Nordics which saw a drastic turn-around in expected precipitation, from 40% of normal to 120% of normal day on day. Prices in Germany were down with coal and the minor dip in carbon while the UK power market followed its peers and shrugged off the minor gains in gas for curve trade while the spot price rallied. This morning, gas is down in early trade which should apply pressure to UK power, while coal is offered flat to the close taking German power down a notch. Finally, Nordic power is down on improved wind output and with sympathy for the German price moves.
Friday 29th September 2017 - Power prices were mixed after being subject to two difficult situations with a rally sparked by further French nuclear woes and a drop in the coal market of more than $2/tonne. In the UK prices edged up with the concerns in France as the UK market will see a pull of demand across the channel in the event of a supply shortfall. German power was mixed with gains and losses across the curve as traders weighed the French nukes against the drop in coal and a lower price for base load power generation. The Nordic market was all soggy and wet after an increase in precipitation hammered prices, more rain has come into the forecasts and the only direction appears to be down. This morning power is trading around flat to the close as the market digests the nuclear story, growing production from renewables and lower coal prices.
- Market Comments October
Monday 2nd October 2017 - Power prices were hammered across Europe, as well as, the UK on Friday, with spot prices getting crushed from low demand and high renewables output. In the UK, prices were down over 6£ on the spot while in Germany the spot was delivered at a discount of more than 11€. Curve prices also took a hit, following the direction of the spot and weakening due to the fall in coal, down over $2, and sliding prices for gas and oil as well. This morning, power is trading around the close with the market looking for direction after the moves on Friday. Coal and gas are flat to slightly positive, while oil is down modestly in early trade. No major events this week so the market will be focused on weather as we move into winter.
Tuesday 3rd October 2017 - Power prices diverged yesterday between the UK and the continent with Germany and the Nordics trading down with carbon and the sentiment from falling oil, while a bounce in gas prices fed into some minor gains in the UK, mostly focused on the spot and prompt month. This morning, coal is dealing slightly lower than the close, following on lower prices for gas in both the UK and on the continent. Power prices in Germany are trading around the closing level from Monday, while lower gas prices should filter into the UK power market when liquidity improves. In the Nordics, this morning, prices are up marginally on slightly drier conditions. Current warm and windy weather is expected to become calmer and cooler which should support spot prices later in the week.
Wednesday 4th October 2017 - Power prices rebounded yesterday in the UK and in Germany, driven by a strong outturn in spot prices which helped to support the front end of the curve and gave support to longer dated contracts while strength in coal and gas provided the rest of the bullish sentiment. In the Nordics slightly windier and wetter conditions, relative to forecast pressured the spot while the curve moved in line with Germany and the coal price. This morning, power prices are under some pressure on the German spot for renewables, the curve is down slightly following this move, the UK market is yet to trade but with lower gas prices it should open near the close. Finally, the Nordics are down slightly in early trade on wetter and windier conditions.
Thursday 5th October 2017 - Power prices across Europe followed the specific feedstocks of each market with German power moving up on the curve with coal and down in the spot on wind. In the UK the moves were mixed following mirroring the lack of profound direction on the NBP gas market, while in the Nordics it was rainy and the prices fell. This morning, news of further delays in the return of baseload nuclear capacity in France has hit the market and Germany is trading higher. Prices in France have increased sharply and the impact has even been felt in the Nordics, while the UK power market is not yet trading the price will move up today with the gains in gas and on the general bullish sentiment from continental power. Despite a drop in carbon yesterday, the emissions credits are also trading higher today with the power market.
Friday 6th October 2017 - Power prices rallied yesterday, on France and the ongoing saga of its nuclear fleet, the bad news of further delays feeds into the nervousness and uncertainty of even the most steeled nerved power trader. More risk was taken off the table as players hedged positions rather than remain exposed to the unknown. The moves across the German and Nordic markets took place even without the usual influence of coal or carbon, while in the UK a rally in gas prices could justify the power move. Despite the moves on the curve, in markets with high wind production, like Germany and the UK, the spot price remained well discounted. This morning, power prices are hovering around the close as the markets look for direction from the fuels or further news from the French.
Monday 9th October 2017 - Power prices were mostly flat to slightly positive across Europe and the UK on Friday, despite mostly bearish fuel inputs from softer coal, gas and oil prices. Gains made were driven from the front of the curves, with spot prices increasing in the UK, Germany and the Nordics of a dip in wind and solar production, longer dated products were mostly flat or made only minor gains. This morning, there is news of further delays in the return of some of the reactors of the French nuclear fleet which always provides a lift to the broader European and UK power markets. Feedstocks like gas and coal are trading around the previous close, gas has broken above the 50p/th resistance level in the UK and can push higher on further news of nuclear woes. The balance of the 15-day forecast period calls for above normal temperatures coupled with greater than normal wind and solar production.
Tuesday 10th October 2017 - Power prices fell in the UK and across Europe yesterday, driven down by warm weather and weak demand on the spot, coupled with expectations for greater wind production over the balance of the week. Longer dated power prices were also down on a minor dip in coal and the price of carbon credits. More of the same weakness is expected today, the UK gas system is long on high wind output and mild weather, while much the same can be said for Germany and the Nordics. The latter is also being hit but 40% above normal rainfall which should continue to fill the already full reservoirs. Lastly, coal is offered lower in early trading as demand remains soft which will apply further pressure to longer dated contracts.
Wednesday 11th October 2017 - Power prices rallied yesterday across Europe and the UK, save for spot prices which were flat or down on the back of mild weather and strong wind power output that cut demand for fossil fuel fired generation. Curve trade was another matter with longer dated contracts being pushed up by strong moves in oil, coal and carbon credits. Coal prices moved up due to temporary closer of some of China’s more dangerous mines while the big move in carbon came on speculation that emissions produced through transportation could get added to the scheme. This morning, gas prices are down which may keep a lid on UK power prices while coal and oil are flat to slightly up which has provided a small gain to German and power. Continued mild weather and robust wind production coupled with above normal precipitation has pressured Nordics prices in early trade action.
Thursday 12th October 2017 - Power prices followed the feedstocks yesterday, with UK spot power moving down while the back-end of the power curve moved up mirroring the moves in the NBP gas market. In Germany, spot prices softened on the robust wind production while the back-end firmed up with coal. Finally, the Nordics felt pressure at the front from wind and water while the back made gains on coal and German power. This morning, with the return of Norwegian flows gas prices are down putting pressure on the markets, increased precipitation and high wind output are keeping a lid on the spot market. Expectations for a build in the weekly US oil numbers could set a bearish tone for the broader energy markets today.
Friday 13th October 2017 - Power was mostly off yesterday despite stronger coal. It seems that no bad news from France was interpreted positively by the market. Apart from the spot prices, all markets were weakest in the front, where warm and windy weather helped push down prices. This morning coal is up another 60 cents at the time of writing, and this supports the power markets across the board this morning. A stronger pound should limit the effect on UK power prices.
Monday 16th October 2017 - Power prices went flying on Friday, following coal and oil prices to the upside while the moves in gas were generally overshadowed, and had little impact on the market. Prices moved most in Germany and the Nordics which are more impacted by coal while the moves in the UK were minor. This morning, power prices are up in Germany and the Nordics following the coal market which has gained almost $1 while in the UK, where the market has yet to trade, the expectation is prices should be up modestly in-line with the broader power markets despite the fact the gas market is mostly unchanged this morning on high wind production and a long system. Minor delays from the French nuclear side but the market seems to be mostly focused on the coal and the mild weather.
Tuesday 17th October 2017 - Power prices softened yesterday in the UK on the nearer date contracts while the seasons made some gains following the broader European power markets and coal. In Germany and the Nordics, a combination of slightly drier conditions and a rally in coal supported most contracts, with the exception of the front end in Germany which sank on high renewables output. This morning, power prices are up on slightly cooler temperature forecasts for next week and a further gain in the price of coal. No new inputs from the French nuclear sector so the usual drivers, weather and feedstocks are the primary inputs to price. The return to seasonal normal coupled with a drop off in solar and wind output next week are prompting traders to buy with the moves at the front end of the market being the strongest in early trade action.
Wednesday 18th October 2017 - Power prices found universal support in the spot market yesterday across European and the UK as temperatures dipped and wind power production waned. Strength from the spot market provided support to near term contracts while longer dated contracts fell across the board with dropping prices for thermal feedstocks like gas and coal. In addition, an increase in expected precipitation put pressure on the Nordic market causing losses. This morning, power prices have made gains in the Nordics and in Germany while the UK has yet to trade. Coal and gas prices are flat to up slightly and this has been the primary driver for the moves in power. General bullish sentiment from a forecasted stock draw in US crude stocks is also having a minor impact.
Thursday 19th October 2017 - Power prices made gains across all three regions driven higher by rising gas prices, in the UK, coal and carbon prices, in Germany, and a dip in precipitation in the Nordics. The big moves in coal have continued as china looks to replenish stocks ahead of winter and is driving up the market for imports taking the global price along for the ride. Additionally, news of more traction behind a carbon price floor, ta, in the Netherlands has spurred a rally in carbon credits as that market becomes optimistic political interventions will be forth coming. Today, gas and coal prices are down slightly, gas is feeling pressure from the front of the curve and a pick-up in win generation and coal is looking to consolidate its gains. Power is also softer at the front on the increased wind and solar generation and mild weather, while longer dated contracts are mostly flat in early trade action.
Friday 20th October 2017 - After many weeks of constantly rising prices coal took a dive yesterday. Intraday the front year contract, API2YR-18, fell more than two USD/ton and closed at 83,5. The crash completely reversed a bullish start in the Emissions market and pulled down power prices across the curve and across all markets. Coal has for a long time been the dominant driver for power prices so it’s no wonder that power prices corrected down yesterday. When comparing power spot prices with forward prices there seems to be built in a healthy risk premium. This premium may start to erode unless the colder weather a head of us starts to affect spot prices. The session today opened up in positive territory compared to yesterdays close but has already at the time of writing gone into negative for several contracts.
Monday 23rd October 2017 - Spot power prices made gains on Friday in all markets as temperatures dipped a bit closer to normal and wind production dipped. By contrast curve prices for all markets were dealt lower, in the UK the selloff was driven by lower gas prices while in Germany and the Nordics the shock of lower coal prices coupled with softer gas and carbon created the weakness. This morning, coal and oil prices are trading around flat to the close, gas is up while carbon is down. The mild weather for the balance of the month and forecasts for normal or above normal wind output have put pressure on German and Nordic power, particularly at the front-end of the curves while the UK power market should move up modestly with the gains in gas. Some minor delay have been reported for the return of some French nukes, however, last week a surprise restart pressured the market.
Tuesday 24th October 2017 - Power prices were dealt lower yesterday in the UK, Germany and the Nordics with all markets dropping from spot to the back-end of the curve. Weakness in the power markets came from falling feedstocks like coal and gas coupled with a drop in emissions and modest retracement in oil. Mild weather throughout the month of October has put pressure on spot prices while the curves have been supported by concerns over the French nuclear fleet. This morning, coal prices are down which has put pressure on German power, while robust hydro levels and precipitation weigh on Nordic power prices. In the UK, the power market has some support from a modest retracement in NBP gas prices owing to a short system.
Wednesday 25th October 2017 - Power prices inched up in the UK on gains in coal and carbon while gas markets were broadly unchanged. This morning the divergence continues between the UK and the continent with gains in gas prices supporting UK power while in Germany the spot has gone further down, with weekend prices already negative, curve trade is up slightly with coal. In the Nordics, the weather inputs are mostly unchanged but the market has retraced yesterday's losses following coal and German power prices.
Thursday 26th October 2017 - Power prices made gains yesterday across all markets in Europe and the UK driven by higher priced feedstocks. A rise in gas and coal prices drove moves in both the UK. This morning, power prices are up in Germany and the Nordics along the curve following gains in the coal price while the UK power should also move higher with the complex despite a relatively flat gas market. Temperatures remain forecast around normal with strong wind output tapering off into the beginning of November.
Friday 27th October 2017 - Power prices were continuously weak in the spot market as mild temperatures and almost record high wind production apply even further pressure to prices. Soft gas prices, weak carbon and coal unchanged left power contracts flat to slightly down on the price curves across Europe. This morning, gas prices are mostly flat, while coal is slightly down as demand for power and gas remains soft in the face of mild weather and robust output from renewables. German and UK power will be under pressure from lower coal and gas prices, while the Nordics have been dealt lower in early trading on hydro and wind.
Monday 30th October 2017 - Power prices made gains from the spot to the long end of the respective prices curves in the UK, Germany and the Nordics. Feedstock which dictate the price of power in each market made gains, gas in the UK and coal for Germany and the Nordics while carbon, and add on to prices was unchanged. Bullish sentiment for global markets came from gains in oil which pushed the price above $60 for the first time in a little over 2 years. This morning, power prices in the UK will take some gains from a modest uptick in gas curve prices and by a drop in wind production, while German power prices have turned around sharply at the front of the curve after a weekend of record breaking wind production has shifted down and fossil fuels re-enter the production mix. The Nordics are following Germany, in spirit despite continued above normal precipitation. The power market volatility has been all about the wind.
Tuesday 31st October 2017 - UK power prices sank yesterday, dealing lower with corresponding lower coal and gas prices, while both the German and Nordic markets went off in two directions, the spot up on lower wind production while the respective curves sank with a dip in coal trading. This morning, power prices continue their ascent, particularly at the front of the curve where the gains can be attributed to cooling temperatures as the market rediscovers winter weather for the first time. Gas and coal prices are up modestly providing price support to all of the markets across Europe while a modestly soft market for emissions credits provides a slight drag. The gains in oil have been held and crude remains above $60 providing a psychological boost for the energy market bulls.
- Market Comments November
Wednesday 1st November 2017 - Power prices moved higher in the UK across the curve following the moves in the gas market, save for the spot which held its discount on mild temperatures. This morning, power prices are up slightly on continued and modest strength in feedstocks. The power market is concerned about a possible nation-wide strike in south Africa which could cut coal sharply at a time when a number of countries are looking to add to stocks and increase burn with the winter weather.
Thursday 2nd November 2017 - Power prices gathered across Europe yesterday, with all contracts in positive territory, save for the Nordic spot. Prices made gains in the UK following on the moves in the NBP gas market while the German power market followed coal to the upside. This morning, power prices have made minor gains in early trading on the expected cooling of temperatures and a drop to almost zero in wind production on the day. Offsetting some of the lost wind are modest gains in solar power for the balance of the week.
Friday 3rd November 2017 - Power prices rallied in the UK following gas and a weaker pound to the upside while Germany was mostly flat on a modest dip in coal prices. In the Nordics, slightly drier conditions and a drop in wind pushed prices to the upside by the end of the session. This morning, power prices are a touch softer following a dip in feedstocks, coal and gas, and emissions credits coupled with more bearish weather forecasts. Temperatures are now forecast to moderate at the end of the 15-day outlook after a dip below normal this weekend. In addition, a pick-up in wind is expect to coincide with the milder temperatures which would be bearish spot power prices.
Monday 6th November 2017 - Power prices were down on Friday, following gas and coal which took substantial losses on the day. Temperatures are expected to dip below normal for the second week of November, which will be coupled with an expected lower output of wind, supporting prices. This morning, coal has bounced back regaining about half of its losses from Friday, while gas has fully recovered from Friday’s fall. Despite the gains in gas, supply remains very robust and the market is pricing in a little extra risk for the first spate of coal weather this winter. In the Nordics prices are also making gains today, following the moves in the UK and Germany coupled with a tightening supply situation on lower forecasted rain.
Tuesday 7th November 2017 - Power prices made strong advances in the UK following the gas market to the upside, while the strength of coal carbon and oil played into the bullishness. In Germany, coal went up and power followed, while strength at the prompt came from an expected dip in temperatures. This morning, the news in the power markets is the further delay of French nuclear capacity, the market has moved up a bit further on this coupled with strength in the feedstocks, coal and gas. The coming week will be the first test of the power and gas systems to balance against the first shot of cold winter weather, the market is hedging against the increased demand and uncertainty by buying up the nearby contracts.
Wednesday 8th November 2017 - Power prices followed their respective major feedstocks yesterday, with the UK power market moving higher with NBP gas while curve prices in the Nordics and Germany were brought down slightly on a modest retracement in the coal contract. Spot prices, and the front month contracts made some gains across all of the power markets driven by concerns over the cooling temperatures and news about further delays in the return of a part of France's nuclear power fleet. This morning, UK power is up slightly following on the move in the NBP gas market while the Nordics are slightly down on wetter conditions and a dip in coal prices; German power is also down on soft coal.
Thursday 9th November 2017 - Power prices dipped across the spot markets of Germany, the UK and the Nordics yesterday as temperatures warmed and wind production began to uptick. The UK power market made gains across the rest of the traded contracts following the gains in gas by contrast in the Nordics prices were down across the curve on increased precipitation. In Germany price action was mixed with weakness on the calendar products which coupled with coal while the front month and front quarter rallied on French nuclear concerns. This morning, power prices are up across all markets on the strength of gas and coal despite slightly warmer temperatures. The market remains concerned about nuclear availability and has found new outages to buy on.
Friday 10th November 2017 - Power prices across Europe and the UK moved in multiple directions yesterday, UK power made gains following NBP gas prices, while German power was mostly down with coal and a pick-up in wind power output. The Nordics were a bit more mixed with the spot down, near curve up and far curve down reflecting strong wind, cooling temperatures and falling German power and coal prices respectively. This morning, gas is down, coal is down and power is down. There are rumblings in the carbon market about some government solutions to the issue of excess credits and hopes to bring California and china into a united global scheme - hope springs eternal.
Monday 13th November 2017 - Spot power prices made increases across Europe and the UK on Friday on the expected drop in temperatures coming into Monday, while the forward curves were mixed in the UK and in Germany as weak coal provided downward pressure while rising gas provided resistance. This morning, power prices in the UK are up slightly following the NBP gas which has made gains on temperatures and a falling pound.
Tuesday 14th November 2017 - Power prices rallied yesterday in the UK following on gains in the gas market driven by coal temperatures, low wind output and a falling pound against the euro and dollar. By contrast power prices fell in Germany and the Nordics following on the drop in coal prices and gains in the euro. Weather forecasts have turned today showing a warming trend at the back end of the forecasts if correct some more value may be shed from power prices as the risk of a deep and long cold snap is ameliorated. This morning, gas and coal prices have come off and power is following suit across all of the European markets and the UK, concerns continue to linger in the background about the French nuclear capacity and restarts of power production.
Wednesday 15th November 2017 - Power prices fell yesterday in the UK following on weakness in the NBP gas market and warming temperatures and rising wind output. In Germany the price drop can be attributed to the warm-up and a massive sell-off in coal prices. The Nordics moved in-line with Germany as their nearest export market for power dropped. Today, much the same, gas, coal and even global oil prices are under pressure from rising temperatures and robust and growing stockpiles. The US is expected to report growth in its petroleum reserves of 6 million barrels over the last week, this news coupled with the weakened commodity demand in Europe is leading to pressure across the energy complex.
Thursday 16th November 2017 - There was nothing but red ink across the power markets yesterday as contracts from spots to forwards were written down. The carnage was driven for a third day on a flip in the forecasts from below to above normal expectations. Compounding the weather change, was the continued down trend in gas and coal prices which also saw some bearish influence from a modest slip in oil prices after US stocks and productive output increased week on week. This morning, the slide in the power markets has stopped with another change to the temperature forecasts, from well above normal to just around normal. Gains in early trading have been generally modest.
Friday 17th November 2017 - Power prices traded according to the direction of their respective feedstocks yesterday, with the UK power market following on the move in NBP gas while the German power market followed coal to the downside. The Nordics were mostly directionless on their own and followed Germany as is normally the case. This morning, Power prices are lower in the UK on a drop in gas prices while Germany trends down with a forecast which has been revised warmer. The Nordics are also down, following on the weakness in Germany despite a small bounce in the coal price in early trade action.
Monday 20th November 2017 - Power prices followed feedstocks on Friday, with the UK power market shifting lower with the drop in NBP gas prices, while German power was pressured by both the fall in coal prices and a slide in the price for continental gas, lastly Nordic power followed the moves in Germany. What a difference a weekend makes, power prices are up this morning, as feedstocks like gas rally on the back of a turn in the 15-day forecasts from above normal temperatures to below. By contrast to the bullishness of the front end of the market, the longer dated contracts, in Germany have fallen as Merkel’s coalition falls apart and proposed decarbonisation, coal power plant closures, fall apart as well.
Tuesday 21st November 2017 - Power prices rose in the UK yesterday, from the front month to the far end of the curve with the exception being the spot which fell on mild temperatures and high wind power output. German power prices rallied with coal and weather forecasts while in the Nordics made gains on colder temperatures while the back was softer with oil. This morning, spot prices are again soft across Europe and the UK on mild temperatures and robust wind power output, while the curves are stronger on gains in coal, gas and oil. Forecasters have called for below normal temperatures in the UK for December and January with the continent being above for the same period.
Wednesday 22nd November 2017 - Power prices united across the board in the UK yesterday following the gas market. This morning, the market is repeating itself as prices make continued gains on a further move in coal and concern over the coming cold weather. Bullish inputs to the market like the French nuclear maintenance and unplanned gas field maintenance in Norway are also providing rising momentum despite fading from the news in favour of talk of cold weather.
Thursday 23rd November 2017 - Power prices dipped in the UK yesterday, driven down by a drop in gas prices and robust wind output. This morning, power prices are up across all markets because gas and coal are up. A slightly cooler set of forecasts have also send power traders running to cover their positions for fear of higher prices.
Friday 24th November 2017 - Power prices continued their rise on Thursday, driven higher by the gains in feedstocks like coal and gas coupled with bullish sentiment from oil and carbon. In addition, tighter alignment across all the forecasts shows and expected cold snap to last out until at least the 15-day period with temperatures around 2 degrees below normal throughout. Prices across Europe and the UK continue to climb this morning, as there appears to be no end in sight, yet, for the below normal temperatures.
Monday 27th November 2017 - Power prices continued to recover on Friday, driven up by weather and the rising price of feedstocks like gas, coal and carbon credits. Gains in power have been focused to the front end of the curves and to the spot markets, while longer dated products have seen smaller gains, UK power has mirrored the scale of the moves in NBP gas. This morning, the move up continues unabated driven in the UK power market by rising gas prices.
Tuesday 28th November 2017 - Power prices continued to make improvements yesterday, although they were modest by comparison to the last week. Only slight moves in the underlying feedstocks coupled with a stable weather forecast and the return of some of the French nuclear capacity gave the power markets little reason to go up, but not enough reason yet to come down. This morning, the level has broken and prices have eased down. Forecasts are a touch warmer seen returning to normal temperatures from below normal and the feedstocks have all traded lower including gas, coal and carbon.
Wednesday 29th November 2017 - Power markets across Europe and the UK moved in unison yesterday with spot market making improvements in all markets on a dip in temperatures and a drop in wind output, while forward curve price dropped in line with the respective feedstocks, coal, gas and carbon credits. This morning, temperatures look a touch warmer in the forecasts, though there remains some conflict between runs. Coal and gas prices have reduced further providing weakness, while OPEC's meeting in Vienna could also provide downward pressure if the market is not satisfied with the length of the production cut extension.
Thursday 30th November 2017- Power prices in the UK were lower yesterday following gas to the downside and weakened further by a stronger pound. Strength in longer dated contracts came from an uptick in coal amid higher demand from China. This morning, power prices in the UK are down with lower gas prices while Germany is weaker at the front and mostly unchanged at the back with warmer forecasts and slightly stronger coal being the primary drivers.
- Market Comments December
Friday 1st December 2017 - Power prices were down throughout the market yesterday, save for the spot in the UK which eked out a modest gain. Prices came under pressure from the sell off in coal and gas coupled with lower prices for emissions credits. The picture this morning is a bit more mixed, UK power is up in line with the moved in the NBP gas markets while German power has some minor gains associated with coal at the back of the curve and some smaller losses on the prompt from more mild temperatures.
Monday 4th December 2017 - Power prices made gains today due to forecast showing temperatures will fall below the average time for this time of year by 2-3 degrees. Additionally prices have risen due to strong gains from gas and oil.
Tuesday 5th December 2017 - Power prices gathered yesterday driven higher by the rising price of feedstocks, like natural gas in the UK and coal in Germany. This morning, spot prices are dealing lower on increased wind power output and more mild temperatures, however longer dated contracts are mostly unchanged from the previous close in early trade action. Weather forecasts continue to hold the same profile of below normal temperatures with some regions like Germany looking slightly cooler day on day.
Wednesday 6th December 2017 - The UK power market moves mirrored the gas market which was down on the spot up at the front end down at the back. This morning, weather forecasts are showing the signs of a possible warm up at the end of the 15-day period, this coupled with the return of a French nuclear facility and weaker gas and coal prices have put some downward pressure on all of the power markets.
Thursday 7th December 2017 - Power prices have opened higher this morning, however are set to fall later in the day following milder weather forecasts.
Friday 8th December 2017 - Power prices in the UK followed the gas moves yesterday, making outsized increases at the front while longer dated contracts were mostly unchanged. This morning, Continental power prices are producing a bit lower on a slightly milder temperature outlook and softer feedstock prices. In the UK power market moderating temperatures and strengthening pound, following a negotiating breakthrough with Brussels over BREXIT is applying pressure to the markets.
Monday 11th December 2017 - Power prices varied on Friday, with the UK coming under pressure on the curve from mild weather and forecasts for increased wind generation. All markets made gains in the spot and day-ahead markets with the expectation of a minor cold snap this week before temperatures warm up again. This morning, the UK prices should rise with the move in gas, but this is expected to be short lived with a minor cold snap.
Tuesday 12th December 2017 - Power prices in the UK rallied with natural gas making sturdy gains in the spot during a spate of cold weather. The announcement of an outage due to a hairline crack in the Forties oil pipeline sent prices soaring near the close of yesterday’s session. Today, more outages have rocked the gas market with a number of short term halts in Norway that have boosted prices across the European energy complex.
Wednesday 13th December 2017 - The European gas markets spilled over into the power markets yesterday with the UK taking most of the news directly into its pricing. Gains were made in the January and Q1-18 contracts while the rest of the curve was mostly unchanged. This morning, UK power should make modest gains with gas at the front end of the curve on the short system.
Thursday 14th December 2017 - The issues at Baumgarten sent gas down during all day yesterday, and power contracts followed suit. Coal, oil and Carbon also traded down, which just added to the bearishness of the power market. This morning gas is coming off a bit more in the front, but coal is up ½ $/ton, so we see power down in the front and slightly up further out on the curve.
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