Market Comments January
Wednesday 2nd January 2019 - UK power prices shadowed gas down on the 31st of Dec, while Continental power markets had their last day of trading on the 28th of Dec. Carbon had a strong run before Christmas but was unchanged during Christmas days. This morning Carbon is up and is close to testing previous highs. Gas is also up in the front, while oil and coal have opened the year on the bearish side as Chinese PM’s came out below expectations. Power is up across most contracts and countries.
Thursday 3rd January 2019 - UK power shadowed gas and Carbon up yesterday, while Continental power took a bearish input from low spot prices and weaker coal. This morning markets have opened on the bearish side. Forecasts are warmer and coal, gas Carbon and oil are all down from yesterdays close.
Friday 4th January 2019 - UK power shadowed gas and Carbon up yesterday, while Continental power took a bearish input from low spot prices and weaker coal. This morning markets have opened on the bearish side. Forecasts are warmer and coal, gas Carbon and oil are all down from yesterdays close.
Monday 7th January 2019 - Weather models were pointing towards a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event, a weather spectacle that led to the Beast from the East in March 2018, hitting towards the end of January which was ensuring that front month contracts were holding on to some risk, but this morning this seems to have disappeared with the chances of this reduced massively in the UK. Temperatures are set to remain at season al norm as minimum until the end of January.
Tuesday 8th January 2019 - Power prices took input from a surrounding bearish energy complex yesterday and corrected down. The price result of the daily European emissions auction disappointed and the emissions curve were immediately pushed significantly lower. It should be noted that after a substantial downward correction oil prices have now stopped falling and this is likely to support gas prices and therefore also power prices further out on the curve.
Wednesday 9th January 2019 - Power prices moved up yesterday, touching higher with feedstocks like natural gas, coal and carbon credits. This morning, gas, oil and carbon prices are ticking slightly higher providing support to power, despite this, fundamentals are neutral to bearish as gas markets remain over supplied and weather is expected to remain above normal for the 15-day forecast. In addition, a boost from renewable energy, wind, and robust gas stocks could provide headwinds to higher prices.
Thursday 10th January 2019 - Power prices rebounded in the spot markets across Europe and the UK as temperatures recovered from below normal, while curve prices fell alongside feedstocks, gas and carbon. This morning, gas and power prices are trading around flat to the previous close. Oil has pulled back slightly after moving higher over the past eight sessions, while carbon and coal look mostly neutral. Weather forecasts show another cool down coming near the end of the 15-day forecast.
Friday 11th January 2019 - Power prices dropped yesterday as mild weather and improving wind output lowers demand and increases supplies. Longer dated contracts were mixed with minor increases or losses as conflicting signals from the feedstock left traders with little clarity in direction. This morning, power prices are finding support from feedstocks as oil leads the complex slightly higher boosting coal and gas while an expected drop in temperatures next week is bringing in some short covering.
Monday 14th January 2019 - Power prices recovered on Friday with UK prices moving higher on fears of cold and taking direction from a bounce in gas prices. This morning, the market is varied with some increases on front month contracts while spot prices and longer dated contracts are flat or slightly down. Carbon is dealing lower in early trading while gas and coal prices are mostly sideways.
Tuesday 15th January 2019 - Power prices were lower in all markets across Europe and the UK yesterday, as traders shrugged off the coming cold weather and instead traded power down with a collapse in the price of feedstocks like gas, coal and carbon. This morning, feedstocks are clawing back some of yesterday’s losses as oil halts its slide on news that china will cut taxes to boost a sagging economy, power is following with its own gains.
Wednesday 16th January 2019 - Power prices were varied yesterday across Europe and the UK with, both German and Nordic markets falling, despite increases in feedstocks, carbon and oil while the UK power market followed NBP gas to the upside. This morning, spot prices are soft with losses in both the UK and in Germany, early curve trading is also showing some minor losses as coal and gas dip while carbon is neutral. Weather forecasts show cold weather rolling to the end of the month without any discernible warm-up yet.
Thursday 17th January 2019 - Power prices were mixed by the close of trading yesterday, with UK and German power markets mostly increasing while the Nordics closed a bit more neutral. This morning, gas, coal, oil and carbon are all trading higher as colder temperatures take hold and forecasts are revised a bit colder for the balance of the month. The colder weather will also bring a downturn in wind production which will also help to support prices.
Friday 18th January 2019 - Power prices were on the rise yesterday, following feedstocks to the upside while colder temperatures and a drop in wind output lifted spot prices. Weather forecasts show continued below normal temperatures for the 15-Day outlook with some slightly warmer days in that period. Stock markets have reacted positively to US talk of easing some tariffs against China and the pound continues to improve as all parties are now coming together to try and come up with a way forward after PM May survived a confidence vote.
Monday 21st January 2019 - Power prices were mostly up driven by cold weather, a sharp drop in renewables and a rally in feedstock prices. This morning, weather forecasts have been revised much warmer and windier sending a gut-punch to the power markets. Power prices are down in all markets following the drop in feedstocks, European markets will be well supplied in gas with 10 more LNG cargos expected before the end of this month, should the warm weather forecasts hold the market would be expected to test downside price resistances.
Tuesday 22nd January 2019 - Power prices fell yesterday, dropping with feedstocks in the UK, gas, while on the continent and in the Nordics the drop in coal and carbon pressured prices lower. This morning, gas prices remain soft, while coal and carbon regain some of the ground lost to yesterday's move. The markets appear to be technically oversold however there is little in the way of bullish fundamentals, the early morning gains in power are likely to be limited, weather forecasts continue to look dovish.
Wednesday 23rd January 2019 - Power prices united yesterday on all contracts in all locations as coal increased and carbon traded towards new highs. This morning, gas, coal, carbon and oil are all in positive territory rebounding or continuing to climb, pulling power prices up with them in all markets. Weather forecasts are mostly unchanged with only slightly cooler temperatures early next week, there is no drastic warm up yet in the forecast, with many national forecasters suggesting slightly below normal weather until mid February.
Thursday 24th January 2019 - Power prices in the UK united yesterday on the back of a tight gas market and elevated prices. This morning, coal, gas and carbon are all being dealt lower as oil is falling on the back of expectations for a weekly stock build in the US crude market, while stock markets are up in Asia and Europe. Power prices are being dealt lower with feedstocks and on the impression of more mild temperatures to come in the near term.
Friday 25th January 2019 - Power prices fell more than £16/3Wh yesterday, only Germany did worse with the drop being closer to €20/MWh. Futures prices were down in all markets as falling prices for coal, gas and carbon pressured power. This morning, the gas market has taken a further hit as forecasts return to normal conditions and more LNG cargos are set to arrive, this has put pressure on UK power and continental power, coal is also down with carbon credits, leaving only oil to make gains on geopolitical concerns and trade machinations.
Monday 28th January 2019 - Power prices made increases in the markets around Europe and the UK as the warning days of a cold snap ended. This morning, the power market is digesting the news from the weekend that the German government aims to close out 13Gwh of coal fired power generation by the year 2022. Prices for power are down at the front end of the curve while the price for power in calendar 2021 and 2022 are up modestly. The overall bearish tone of the market looks to continue with mild weather in the 15-day forecast and a pick-up in renewable power generation.
Tuesday 29th January 2019 - Power prices found some support in the markets around Europe and in the UK yesterday, while curve prices sank under pressure from falling gas, coal and carbon prices. This morning, power prices are down in the UK following softer prices for NBP gas and a drop in carbon prices, Germany and the Nordics are also lower on falling coal, gas and emissions contracts.
Wednesday 30th January 2019 - Power prices were varied yesterday, the UK power market mostly increased following the NBP and the broader bullishness in oil and a weaker pound. This morning, the markets are a bit mixed, but support has generally been found. Profit taking after the protracted fall in prices coupled with hints of some cooler temperatures at the back end of the 15-day forecast are enough to bring out the buyers just ahead of the February contract expiry.
Thursday 31st January 2019 - Power prices in the UK rallied and failed yesterday, dropping in the afternoon with the NBP gas market. This morning, a drop in demand and a pick up in wind has put pressure on spot prices, forecasts for mild temperatures into the first half of February have eroded prices. Coal, gas and carbon are all dealing lower in early trade action putting pressure on power prices around the European complex.
Market Comments February
Friday 1st February 2019 - Power markets in the UK and Europe closed definitively lower yesterday, from the spot prices to longer dated calendars and seasons the direction for prices was down. This morning expects the direction to be similar, weather forecasts have turned warmer for February, dare we say winter is over? Perhaps not just yet but demand will be expected to wane into the new month.
Monday 4th February 2019 - Power prices shadowed coal, carbon and gas down on Friday. Also, warmer weather in the forecasts added to the bearishness. Warmer weather in both Europe and Asia have added to bearishness. This morning we see power trading lower again. Lower Carbon, coal and gas coupled with warmer weather is pushing down prices. Carbon is trading near € 21.50/ton and is approaching the € 21 level, a technical support level.
Tuesday 5th February 2019 - Coal, carbon and gas was down from the start of yesterday, with warmer weather also helping to push down prices. But a unsuccessful attempt to break through the € 21.30/ton support level for carbon spurred a lot of buying interest. This sent carbon up to close above € 23/ton, pulling power contracts up, especially late in the day (after the close for Continental exchanges). Currently we are trading around € 23/ton, slightly down for the day.
Wednesday 6th February 2019 - Power markets were mostly unchanged to up yesterday despite a huge drop in coal, that dropped almost $1.5/ton yesterday. Input from the weather was mostly bearish yesterday, with forecasts still pointing to a warm and windy period ahead of us. We are therefore likely to see spot prices fall over the coming days. This morning power contracts are marginally up, driven by a slight bounce in coal and higher carbon.
Thursday 7th February 2019 - UK power was unchanged yesterday as it was caught between bearish gas and bullish coal and carbon. Carbon had a strong close on Tuesday, closing just above the €23/ton figure. This spurred more buying interest, and during the day, yesterday, carbon was up above €24/ton before closing slightly lower. Coal also made increases as it failed to break below the $ 80 /ton level on Tuesday. This morning we have small gains in coal, gas and carbon, and power contracts open up across the board.
Friday 8th February 2019 - Power markets followed the bearish fuel inputs down yesterday. In the UK, EDF said it will close down the 2 GW coal-fired Cottam plant from Sep-19. It is a 50 year old plant, and didn’t win the capacity auction for 2021/22 last year. This morning power market opens further down, with the front taking the hardest hit as the end of the forecasts look slightly warmer today compared to yesterday.
Monday 11th February 2019 - Power prices made unsure increases in the spot, on Friday, despite a pickup in wind production and mild weather, by contrast curve prices were resoundingly lower across both Europe and the UK. This morning, gas, coal, carbon and oil prices are all down and with them power prices in the UK, Germany and the Nordics. The weather outlook has been adjusted warmer for the 15-day forecasts which has also put further downward pressure on prices.
Tuesday 12th February 2019 - Power prices dropped in the UK yesterday, moving lower with gas, despite some support for carbon. Forecast runs this morning are showing divergent outcomes after day 10 with a split between warmer than and colder than normal, a possible reason for the market to find some support. Power prices are up marginally in early trade action with German power setting the tone for the market, carbon is also in positive territory.
Wednesday 13th February 2019 - Power prices were down across the board yesterday in all regions and on all contracts. This morning, the market has stabilized, gas contracts are dealing slightly down with carbon and power while coal and oil are up, expect to see the markets test these new lower levels before consolidation. Weather outlooks remain mild and have become slightly warmer in the 5 and 10-day portion of the outlooks for Germany, the UK and the Nordics.
Thursday 14th February 2019 - Power prices were varied yesterday, with UK power increasing alongside carbon and NBP gas. This morning, the markets are playing catch-up on the remainder of the late session rally as oil continues to creep higher. Up against this are robust supplies of gas and additional LNG cargos coming to Europe and the UK. However, after weeks of a bear market a stall in the declines may bring players into take profit, temporarily boosting prices.
Friday 15th February 2019 - Power prices dropped yesterday under the weight of selling pressure on carbon products in addition to the late session reversal and reduction in gas and coal prices. This morning, power contracts are trading flat in the UK and down on the continent and in the Nordics to the closing levels of the previous session.
Monday 18th February 2019 - Power prices closed in positive territory, capping off a week of relatively sideways trade action. The UK power market gained on a rise in gas prices and the move in carbon while markets on the continent moved in the same manner taking direction from feedstocks and the overall bullish sentiment of oil. This morning, the market continues to find support from oil and feedstocks as a bearish backdrop is out of focus from the nearby bullish sentiment and technical trading. Moderate gains in early trading will be tested to see if a turnaround is indeed possible, mild weather and a pick-up in renewable generation will provide headwinds to spot and nearby contracts.
Tuesday 19th February 2019 - Power prices came under pressure yesterday across Europe and the UK as the favoured feedstocks in each market were found to be in surplus and dropping in price. In the UK gas prices and carbon were dealt lower and power followed while in Germany and the Nordics gas and coal weakness coupled with lower carbon and increased precipitation softened the markets. This morning, renewables are expected to reach their weekly peak productive capacity on mild weather and increased wind.
Wednesday 20th February 2019 - Power prices united late in the session following gas, coal and carbon prices higher, the increases were somewhat more quiet than expected as strong renewable output provided some bearishness. This morning, power prices are up in the UK following some modest gains in gas and coal, while Germany and the Nordics have traded mostly flat the to the close as weather forecasts and overall fundamentals remain neutral to bearish.
Thursday 21st February 2019 - Power prices moved up yesterday in all regions on price increases in feedstocks on a day with generally bullish sentiment from stock markets and a geo-political bounce in oil. This morning, what the market given with one had it taken with the other, power prices have retraced some of yesterday’s increases as feedstock, coal, gas and carbon deal lower.
Friday 22nd February 2019 - Power prices were distributed lower on falling feedstocks and on a drop in the cost of emissions credits, the punishment was met out across Europe and the UK. Weather forecasts were revised warmer in the 10-day outlook for most of NW Europe adding to the pressure. This morning, the market is trading slightly lower as feedstocks remain under modest pressure, however, nothing like the move yesterday. Friday trading may see a bit of profit taking ahead of the weekend which could keep losses in check or even a bit of a bounce.
Monday 25th February 2019 - Power prices around Europe and the UK came under further pressure on Friday, as feedstocks, coal and gas were traded lower and weather forecasts retained their warmth. This morning, power prices remain under downward pressure with carbon prices falling to match feedstock losses from Friday while an oversupplied gas market is pressuring that commodity and coal as well. upside for the market looks hard to come by with only oil retaining any value.
Tuesday 26th February 2019 - Power prices were lower in both the UK and in Germany yesterday, driven by lower prices for natural gas coupled with mild temperatures. This morning, coal and carbon are up, while gas and oil are down, some resistance is building to the downside as traders look to take profit and positive news out of trade negotiations between the US and China buoys equity markets. Power prices are mixed with spot contracts dealing lower while curve products are in positive territory.
Wednesday 27th February 2019 - Power prices separated yesterday between the UK and the continent, for the former, falling gas prices and a stronger pound pressured prices. This morning, coal, gas and carbon contracts are all dealing higher, on what appears to be a bit of a short squeeze after many sessions of aggressive selling with limited downward movement. Weather forecasts are a touch cooler now moving from well above seasonal normal to normal with a risk of some below normal temperatures into the final month of winter.
Thursday 28th February 2019 - Power prices could not escape the pull of higher feedstock's and carbon contracts yesterday which rocketed up after taking a beating for the past couple of months. This morning, oil prices are retracing slightly, carbon and coal are priced around the close while gas is mostly unchanged. For the first week of March 5 LNG cargos are expected to the UK while temperatures are expected to return to seasonal normal around that time. Spot prices are up in early trade action as temperatures begin to dip from recent highs.
Market Comments March
Friday 1st March 2019 - Power prices increased in all markets across Europe and the UK, bolstered by the rising price of feedstocks like coal and gas, coupled with gains in carbon credits and slightly cooler forecasts. This morning, gas is trading down slightly while coal is flat, and carbon is lower, weather forecasts have been revised a touch warmer. Coming into the last month of wither wind forecasts are expected to improve and solar will pick up as days extend.
Monday 4th March 2019 - Power trading was varied on Friday with UK power dealing lower in line with NBP gas contracts while German power rallied with carbon, Nordic prices were mixed lower in the front on precipitation while the back rallied with carbon and German power. This morning, prices are down slightly with lower feedstocks, coal and gas, softer carbon credits and mild weather. A pick-up in wind is expected over the 15-day forecast for the countries of NW Europe.
Tuesday 5th March 2019 - Power prices made increases in all markets and for all contracts yesterday, driven by higher input costs, coal and gas, coupled with increased carbon prices which have been on a rally for a over a week now. This morning, the same story, carbon prices are higher, and power is up with coal and this time even gas, which has arguable the most bearish fundamental back story of all.
Wednesday 6th March 2019 - All inputs to European power markets were bearish yesterday, and prices came off. For German power it was the first down-day in 6 days, lead by a large fall in coal and the first down-day to carbon in 8 days! Apart from the Nordic area temps remain at or above seasonal average for the next 2 weeks. Wind is also going to be healthy this week for most areas, and in general, the input from the weather side is still to the bearish side. This morning, we see coal coming off further, and gas is also weak. This is leading power contract lower from the start of the day.
Thursday 7th March 2019 - Lower fuel inputs sent power markets across Europe down yesterday. Coal was also in a big move down, and with weather also being on the bearish side, power found no strength anywhere. This morning, we see carbon just below €22/ton and coal and gas is also coming further off. This is sending power further down.
Friday 8th March 2019 - Mild weather and bearish gas gave purpose for power prices to dip in the UK and Germany while the less liquid Nordic market hooked on carbon and rallied. This morning, coal, gas and oil are down while carbon is unchanged, spot prices are holding their own as temperatures dip slightly. Power has made very modest increases in early trade action but with a generally softer complex and cuts to both GDP forecasts for Europe and the UK bullishness may be contained.
Monday 11th March 2019 - Power prices made increases at the end of a bearish week in the energy complex, despite sideways prices for gas, while coal, oil and carbon were all dealt lower. This morning, power prices are slightly softer, weather forecasts are warmer, solar and wind outlooks are both stronger, while gas and carbon prices are down slightly.
Tuesday 12th March 2019 - Power prices were under pressure yesterday in the UK as the market took note of dropping gas prices coupled with lower carbon and a stronger pound. This morning, carbon has reversed its drop and has helped to lift power albeit not enough to cover the fall from Monday. For UK traders and buyers, the pound rally on EU concessions is hope that the BREXIT will be more orderly than disorderly.
Wednesday 13th March 2019 - Power prices in Europe and the UK were dealt lower yesterday, spot UK power and calendar contracts for both German and Nordic power made increases. Weather outlooks for wind remain robust out until the end of the week while temperatures are moderate. This morning, coal is down while gas and carbon are modestly softer, support for power will be hard to come by. The BREXIT saga might provide some support to UK power and gas if the pound weakens, however, in early trading the sterling has rebounded from yesterday’s low.
Thursday 14th March 2019 - Power prices in the UK followed gas to the downside, as the European energy complex came under pressure. This morning, the power markets are clawing back some of their losses from the previous session, coal and oil are up, as is carbon, while the perpetually bearish gas market is sideways, which considering the recent falls is almost bullish. Parliamentary machinations will continue to be a focus of the market as pound/euro volatility creates opportunities for both traders and buyers/sellers alike.
Friday 15th March 2019 - Power prices moved in different directions between the UK and the continent yesterday, falling gas price too UK power down while stronger coal and carbon helped German and the Nordics to make gains. This morning, the broader energy complex is slightly up while gas continues to be a bit soft.
Monday 18th March 2019 - Power prices filed in unity on Friday, spot prices increased in all markets across Europe and the UK while curve prices were dealt lower as traders sold power down in line with falling feedstocks, gas and coal, and carbon. OPEC will meet and try to hold the line on supply cuts to try and balance the market while the Russians and Iraqis have sounded less enthusiastic.
Tuesday 19th March 2019 - Power prices were distributed lower yesterday coming under pressure from a drop in carbon, mostly unaware of a late session rally in gas and oil. This morning, weather forecasts have shifted slightly colder for the end of the week, gas and oil prices are up and renewable production is down. The set up is clear for a bit of a rebound in prices after a steady decline over the past week.
Wednesday 20th March 2019 - Power prices found support from buyers in Germany and the Nordics closing positions ahead of a return to normal temperatures and bit more demand. This morning, power prices are softer on the back of forecasts that show a slightly milder outlook for temperatures with a modest pick-up in renewables. There are few, new, inputs to the market and after quite a bearish run we could expect a move into a sideways market as players look for fresh inputs to the narrative.
Thursday 21st March 2019 - UK power diverged from the continent, a drop in the pound coupled with rising gas prices and a bump in carbon resulted in day-on-day gains. This morning, the market global commodities are trading relatively flat to their previous closes, coal and oil, while European power and gas are trading relatively tight to the previous day's settlement. Only carbon is trading down with any sort of authority while the rest of the markets have turned sheepish on bold moves.
Friday 22nd March 2019 - Power prices in the UK were dealt lower yesterday reversing increases from the previous session, moving in line with the drop in NBP gas and carbon. This morning, weather forecasts and expected wind production should be favourable to the bears with milder temperatures and a pick up in the outlook for renewables. BREXIT news remains a feature of market interest as the possibility of the NO-DEAL option hangs on the PM's ability to steer her MPs and take advantage of the 2-week extension.
Monday 25th March 2019 - Power prices dropped in the UK and in Germany on Friday, moving lower with combustion feedstocks, gas and coal, coupled with additional pressure from carbon. This morning, oil and stock markets are down, news of slowing economies is trickling out of Europe and now china as demand in the latter for electricity slowed for the first months of the year, the result of which could push more coal cargos to Europe further depressing prices.
Tuesday 26th March 2019 - Power prices were distributed lower in the UK following NBP prices, while German and Nordic power was mostly unchanged on the back of mixed signals from gas and coal while carbon improved slightly. This morning, oil is up, coal is up, and gas is mostly flat. Weather forecasts have turned a bit cooler for the start of April with temperatures dipping below normal in the UK while on the continent expectations are for normal levels.
Wednesday 27th March 2019 - Power prices recovered yesterday with stronger inputs from the fuel complex. Coal, carbon and gas all moved up yesterday, and drew power with it. We are looking into some warm weather for the rest of this week, but then temps are dipping down below seasonal averages, expected to give some support to spot prices for next week. This morning we see coal, carbon and gas opening slightly up, and power have also come off to a stronger start.
Thursday 28th March 2019 - Today power prices are down slightly in all markets in early trade action, a dip in prices for feed stocks, coal and gas coupled with lower oil and carbon, renewable production is holding up around normal for the time of the year, while temperatures are expected to remain around normal apart from the UK which may experience some slightly below normal temperatures.
Friday 29th March 2019 - Power prices dropped yesterday, coming under pressure from bearish gas and coal prices and moderating weather forecasts. Today is expiry for April, Q2 and Summer 2019 contracts and Monday will market the beginning of summer trading. PM May continues to try to get some part of BREXIT legislation through parliament, going so far as to offer to quit her job if her colleagues will simply pass something. Weather forecasts continue to look mild with moderate renewables for the start of the month.
Market Comments April
Monday 1st April 2019 - Power prices trended in the same direction around Europe and the UK on Friday, with spot prices increasing on a modest dip in temperatures while curve prices dropped with falling coal, gas and carbon prices. Weather forecasts continue above normal temperatures for the first couple weeks of April, with renewable power generation at around normal levels for the time of year. This morning, power prices are down in Germany and in the UK on softer coal and gas prices coupled with a dip in carbon. In the Nordics prices are up slightly in early trade on weather inputs.
Tuesday 2nd April 2019 - Power prices were lower in both German and the UK yesterday, coming under pressure from falling coal and gas prices, despite a minor uptick in carbon. This morning, coal and gas remain under pressure to the downside and German and UK power priced look much the same. Carbon prices are lower providing some additional bearishness to the market while oil is up and completely divorced from the rest of the European energy complex.
Wednesday 3rd April 2019 - Power prices were distributed lower in the UK yesterday, following gas prices to the downside with only longer dated contracts hanging on to their value. This morning, power is finding support from a rebound in carbon and coal prices while gas price weakness is keeping the rally in check thus far. In BREXIT news, legislators are today debating a law that would prevent a no-deal Brexit on 12 April. A no-deal Brexit could bring a dearth of UK EUA allowances back to the carbon market and pressure prices. The debate should keep carbon volatile during today's session.
Thursday 4th April 2019 - Power prices made increases on the back of rolling prices for both gas and carbon yesterday, coupled with increased weather related demand in the UK and generally weak renewables production across Europe. This morning, feedstocks, coal and gas, have retraced some of yesterday's gains but with a resilient carbon market power prices are mostly unchanged day-on-day with only minor gains or losses by contract or market.
Friday 5th April 2019 - Power prices increased with the whole fuel complex. This morning, gas has made a big move further up on reduced Norwegian flows. This is bullish the front of the curve, where gas is expected to be the primary fuel for production. Carbon has started the day down, and so the longer dated contracts aren’t up as much as the front.
Monday 8th April 2019 - Power prices rallied on Friday with gains in feedstock, driven by a gas price rally which lifted coal prices as well, carbon prices made minor gains helping to reinforce the direction. Today, the market is retracing some of the gains, from Friday following on a softening of the coal and gas markets coupled with a dip in the price of emissions credits. Weather forecasts continue to look mostly mild with a short-lived drop in temperatures to below normal conditions for the time of year, expected later this week.
Tuesday 9th April 2019 - Today power prices are up in the UK on the back of higher gas prices while coal is increasing, bringing the buyers into focus in Germany. Dry weather and lowered expectations for wind output provide some additional support to power prices. With the rally in the European energy complex an injection of fresh volatility should be expected for the near term as the market attempts to adjust to these new levels.
Wednesday 10th April 2019 - Power prices moved up in the UK yesterday, driven by a rally in gas and carbon contracts, while German and Nordic power were mostly unchanged despite the strength in the underlying European commodity complex. The specific drive for the bull run is not clear, be it carbon, gas or coal, but all of these commodities have created a virtuous cycle of buying which has fuelled the run. To break the cycle, the market will need a catalyst, warmer windier weather next week coupled with the Easter holiday and the interconnector maintenance might do it. This morning, power has moved up to catch-up with the late session moves in gas and coal.
Thursday 11th April 2019 - Power prices separated on either side of the English Channel with Continental and Nordic power prices rising with carbon, shrugging off the moves in coal and gas, while the UK power market dutifully followed the NBP gas market to the downside. This morning, coal, gas and oil are all softer while carbon continues to trade in a sideways fashion. Power is trading down in all markets this morning in early and relatively thin trade.
Friday 12th April 2019 - The day-ahead power contract shed value yesterday, with wind generation increasing from a low of 1GW yesterday afternoon, to a peak of 6GW by the end of today. Overall, the contract lost £5.46/MWh, to close at £46.79/MWh. Curve contracts ticked up along with gains in NBP gas and European carbon.
Monday 15th April 2019 - Power prices in the UK relaxed with NBP gas while more resilience was to be found on the continent where German and Nordic power were stable with the gains in carbon and coal. This morning, power prices are down with a drop in gas, coal and carbon prices. Temperatures have returned to normal and are forecasted to rise above normal into the latter part of the week and the weekend.
Tuesday 16th April 2019 - Power prices dropped in the UK on Monday, following gas to the downside, while the drop in coal prices pressured German power. This morning, coal, oil and carbon are down slightly while gas is in positive territory after a bit of a sell-off on the back of a tight spot market. Weather forecasts show continuing warmth to come until the 25th of April before returning to seasonal normal levels.
Wednesday 17th April 2019 - Power prices in the UK dropped slightly yesterday on the curve while spot prices were more resoundingly down. This morning, the weather is warmer, however, the wind has dropped off with solar PVs providing the renewable power to NW Europe. Demand is down as more people take time from work for the Easter holidays, the markets will be closed Friday and Monday across all markets with the Nordics taking an extra day off shuddering their market on Thursday as well. Power prices are up around the market this morning, with gas, coal, oil and carbon.
Thursday 18th April 2019 - Power prices followed feed stocks higher as the inputs increased through the trading day yesterday. This morning, the feedstocks are up again, a field outage in Norway has lost 10% of production with as of writing, no published cause or duration. Prices are up for gas, coal and power however it appears that the revised forecasts, warmer, are putting a lid on the increases. trading is closed in the Nordics, while ALL other markets are open.
Tuesday 23rd April 2019 - Power prices are a bit softer today, particularly at the front of the curve on the back of robust solar and wind power. Above normal temperatures are expected to fall back to normal levels near the end of the week. the bullish driver in the energy markets is oil which is up on news that the US will not continue its wavier program for Iranian oil, bears may find some solace in the news that Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pledged to help keep markets balanced.
Wednesday 24th April 2019 - Power prices were varied yesterday, with some contracts increasing while others lost in both Germany and the UK, only the Nordic market to decisive direction to the downside. This morning, power prices are up with carbon and coal while gas is sideways, and oil is slightly down, the market remains fixated on carbon, due to almost decade highs and the lack of fundamentals in the market makes it often a game of chicken for those brave enough to try and short it.
Thursday 25th April 2019 - Lower renewables sent spot prices up, while UK and German forward markets took input from the weak coal market and fell across the board. Only Nordic power were up on drier weather. Lower gas prices also helped send down European power prices. Coal fell more than 2 $/ton for the 2020 contract. High stocks in Europe and a generally low demand for the fuel as gas is more competitive in the power sector is putting pressure on prices. This morning we have opened unchanged on most inputs, but gas is marginally up, and so is power.
Friday 26th April 2019 - Power prices made increases in the UK, following the gas market, as did German power which moved with gas ignoring both coal and emissions. This morning, coal and gas are dealing slightly lower, weather forecasts are a touch cooler, with some below seasonal temperatures expected over the next 15-day period. In the UK spot prices are up slightly while curve trade is slightly lower. Volatility is expected to be higher today and on Monday as the front month contracts expire.
Monday 29th April 2019 - Power prices shadowed their feedstocks on Friday with UK power bowing to the low price for NBP gas while German and Nordic power followed the softening coal market. This morning, we are off to a slow start with only German power posting trades, all of them down in price from Friday, oil is down, and carbon is dealing around the closing level, slightly lower as of the time of writing.
Tuesday 30th April 2019 - Yesterday UK power made some modest increases on a flat gas market and gains in carbon, while German power fell with coal and the Nordics were firm with carbon and a dry hydro outlook. This morning, carbon and coal are down slightly, gas is flat, and oil is up slightly with strength in earnings from oil majors. Weather forecasts turn cooler, though not sharply below normal for any extended period.
Market Comments May
Wednesday 1st May 2019 - Power prices in the UK followed gas to the downside, as did German power while the Nordics rose with carbon and coal, on the continent the changes were modest in both directions. This morning, oil, coal, carbon and gas are all dealing slightly lower from yesterday’s close. Support in the market is coming from expectation for lower wind power generation over the month of May and a little spring frost expected over the weekend.
Thursday 2nd May 2019 - Power markets were partly closed yesterday for the May day holiday in many parts of continental Europe. The UK power market was open with trading as usual, coming under pressure from all sides, a weak gas market and a drop in both coal and carbon. This morning, the power markets are soft in the Nordics, on the back of increased precipitation and wind output and lower carbon prices.
Friday 3rd May 2019 - Power prices went in two directions with spot prices increasing on cooler weather and strong feedstocks like gas, while curve prices followed the drop in longer dated feedstock prices and the drop in carbon prices. This morning, forecasts are mostly unchanged, cooler temperatures remain expected over the weekend and early into the next week before rising back to seasonal normal levels.
Tuesday 7th May 2019 - Power markets in the UK were closed for a bank holiday, limited trading took place at the continental hubs which were open, increases were made on the back of below normal temperatures and bit of a lift in carbon and oil prices. This morning, power markets are trading relatively flat to the previous close, temperatures are expected to remain around normal across NW Europe, with the UK slightly above and Germany slightly below.
Wednesday 8th May 2019 - Power prices moved along with gas prices in the UK, taking a thrashing in the spot while the back end of the curve gained. This morning, coal and gas are dealing slightly lower and carbon is attempting a break below the 26-euro mark. Power prices are slightly softer in the UK and the Nordics while Germany is trading flat to the close.
Thursday 9th May 2019 - Power prices moved along with gas prices in the UK, spot prices increased by almost 1.5 £/MWh while also the rest of the curve increased 0.5-1 £/MWh. This morning, coal is sliding amid rising trade tensions and gas is up. Carbon has retaken the 27-euro mark and is closing in on previous highs. Power prices are up in the UK, Germany and the Nordics.
Friday 10th May 2019 - UK power followed the same path as gas prices, trading up in the front and down on the curve. With lower coal, carbon and curve gas contracts, the inputs to curve power products seemed more decisively bearish than mixed settlements. This morning power prices are more or less unchanged.
Monday 13th May 2019 - Power prices were under pressure on Friday from a drop in carbon prices coupled with a corresponding move in gas prices. This morning, prices continue to be softer as carbon, gas and coal are all dealing lower. Weather forecasts have been revised warmer for the 15-day outlook with a return to above normal temperatures is expected in all market areas. Trumps trade war is ratcheting up again boosting the dollar and keeping pressure on dollar denominated commodities like LNG, coal and oil.
Tuesday 14th May 2019 - Power prices in the UK dropped with gas in the spot and balance of summer products while the front season and beyond were unchanged. This morning, German power is mostly unchanged with coal prices down slightly and carbon up modestly, while in the Nordics prices are lower with rising temperatures. In the UK prices are mostly unchanged as gas prices are off only slightly and carbon is up.
Wednesday 15th May 2019 - Power prices in the UK reflected the moves in the gas market yesterday, sinking in the spot market and gaining across the curve with the broader energy market. This morning, coal and oil are down, gas is sideways, and carbon is slightly up testing the 26 euro level. Temperatures for next week are being revised even warmer in today's forecasts runs, if confirmed heating load overnight could drop to zero with moderate daytime cooling load.
Thursday 16th May 2019 - Power prices made small increases in the UK from the spot through to the balance of summer, while the longer dated contracts showed a more pronounced move. This morning power markets are relatively neutral, oscillating between strength and weakness with a close eye to carbon prices and feedstocks. Both gas and coal are slightly down while carbon has been in positive territory for most of the morning thus far, while oil holds its gains from the rally on Wednesday.
Friday 17th May 2019 - Power prices in both the Nordic area, Germany and the UK followed gas prices down yesterday. The bearish sentiment in power was fuelled by both carbon and coal coming further off. Especially coal seems to be on a convincing downward trajectory with prices coming off continuously since October 2018. At that time a ton of coal delivered in Rotterdam were priced at 95.5 $/ton (Cal-20 contract) whereas the current price level is now 69.50 $/ton. This morning prices opens marginally down.
Monday 20th May 2019 - Power prices in the UK followed gas on Friday to the downside with additional pressure coming from a reduction in prices for carbon credits. In Germany, softer coal and gas prices pressured power contracts while in the Nordics the market was broadly unchanged as traders shrugged off lower feedstock prices on account of low hydro reservoir levels. Today the energy complex is rebounding from Friday's lows, with oil making the most pronounced gains, gas and coal are only modestly up while has gained about 20cents. Forecasts call for temperatures to be warmer than the seasonal norm for the balance of the month and the first week of June with only a couple of days at the norm for the year.
Tuesday 21st May 2019 - Power prices dropped yesterday in Germany and the Nordics, both of which bore the brunt of a sharp drop in coal prices, with only a meagre increase in carbon to support the power. This morning, the fundamentals remain neutral to slightly bearish with near term weather looking mild and calm, an increase in wind is not expected until the end of the 15-day outlook when temperatures dip slightly below normal.
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