Energy Market Report – Electricity

  • Market Comments January

    Tuesday 3rd January 2017 - UK Power is taking direction from UK Gas this morning. UK weather is recovering and is set to warm up mid-January, which is decreasing demand forecast for the rest of January and in turn pushing front end prices down.

    Wednesday 4th January 2017 - UK Power prices this morning are tracing Gas with the rises. Again we are seeing prices rise from the over correction yesterday, and warmer than seasonal normal temperatures expected for mid Jan however from the 16th December temperatures are set to drop again for a cold snap. Oil is also rising; however they are limited by a rising dollar.

    Thursday 5th January 2017 - UK Power this morning is again tracing Gas and moving upwards. It is still thought to be rising following an ongoing correction of the low prices seen Tuesday this week. Coal prices are posting gains, which is supporting the curve, as Oil remains quite static.

    Friday 6th January 2017 - UK Power prices are rising this morning, following very choppy EUA movements recently due to generators Sparks and Darks rehedging, and colder weather reforecasts for the UK for mid Jan. Looking out to next week, we have a higher wind production outlook, which could soften prices.

    Monday 9th January 2017 - This morning, UK Gas has risen across the board. The main drivers for this morning are changing weather forecasts, as we are now seeing much colder weather for the next 2 weeks and weakening Sterling (lowest levels against the dollar seen for 2 months) following Theresa Mays interview which has caused fear for a harder Brexit.

    Tuesday 10th January 2017 - UK Power prices have also risen across the curve this morning. Taking slight direction from UK Gas and its struggle with a weakening pound and colder weather, Power is also reacting to these factors. In conjunction with all this, there is low French Nuclear availability, low wind generation levels and Coal has been rising for the past few days.

    Wednesday 11th January 2017 - UK Power has also risen across the curve this morning. There have been cold weather revisions in the UK, plus extremely cold weather forecasts on the continent. This is causing European demand to rise and is placing pressure on prices and pushing them upwards. Also making an impact are French Nuclear’s which are currently operating at half capacity.

    Thursday 12th January 2017 - UK Power prices have also risen again today, similarly taking direction from cold weather conditions expected across Europe and other rising commodities. UK Power is still moving in line with NBP prices; however, as French WA prices remain strong, this is also adding support. Volatile markets are expected over the coming weeks, as unstable weather in the UK continues to be main driver.

    Friday 13th January 2017 - UK Power has fallen this morning, as forecasts suggest milder weather going into next week. However, we have also seen some rises, as wind production is set to decrease next week, pushing some prices up, and limiting others.

    Monday 16th January 2017 - UK Power prices have fallen at the front end of the curve, as we see higher wind forecasts and milder weather. We are seeing prices take direction from decreasing UK Gas contracts and falling French Power prices.

    Tuesday 17th January 2017 - UK Power has also risen across the curve this morning. Main reason for this is that is it moving in the direction with NBP, which is steadily rising today. Colder weather is expected (however we have good wind generation levels too which could limit rises), and Theresa May is set for her speech today to discuss the country’s foreign policy, which will no doubt cause market volatility.

    Wednesday 18th January 2017 - UK Power has also risen this morning as it similarly takes direction from falling UK temperatures and limited wind power output for the next few days. It also moves up as most European fuel markets post gains and strong Coal prices continue their upwards momentum.

    Thursday 19th January 2017 - UK Power has risen, as forecasts have predicted that cold weather should last longer than initially thought. We are seeing direction from other rising European fuel main driver being weather. Coal is also rising day on day, as there are predictions that the market is overbought and therefore prices are increasing.

    Friday 20th January 2017 - UK Power has taken direction from the NBP rises this morning, along with colder weather revisions which is increasing heating demand forecasts. These cold weather spells are expected to last up until the start of February. There are also low wind levels for power which is adding bullish sentiment.

    Monday 23rd January 2017 - Power prices were supported on Friday by cold weather revisions to the region, likely to increase the gas demand to the UK. Further out on the curve, prices strengthened following the European and UK NBP gas prices which also climbed. UK Power is likely to experience it’s tightest day in terms of supply on Monday, but with wind generation expected to significantly increase throughout the week prices could be pressured.

    Tuesday 24th January 2017 - UK Power prices followed the NBP Gas counterpart on Monday with prices generally strengthening throughout the day. Cold weather, low wind availability and supply issues in Europe has seen the demand for Gas to burn for generation has significantly climbed over recent days. There was some weakness on the prompt in the afternoon session as warmer revisions and higher wind output fed through for this week but this did little to offset further gains across the curve.

    Wednesday 25th January 2017 - UK Power prices were bearish on Tuesday with prices falling across the curve. Warmer weather revisions to upcoming temperatures providing the biggest impact to prices as UK demand was constantly revised downwards as expectations move towards a warmer and mild February. On top of this weaker fuels prices in Europe helped contribute to falling prices across the curve, also mirroring the movements of the NBP gas market which also showed similar losses. High wind generation for the remainder of the week also helped to ease prompt prices.

    Thursday 26th January 2017 - UK Power has dropped across the curve this morning, as it takes direction from warmer weather conditions for the next 2 weeks, which reduce levels for demand. Also impacting the Power curve is weakness in most European fuels.

    Friday 27th January 2017 - Towards the front of the UK Power curve, we have seen some decreases, like NBP on the back of milder weather forecasts and bearish sentiment. However towards the back end, we have seen some slight rises taking direction from Oil, as crude output from the US rises, OPEC and other producers still vow to create cut; causing conflicting news.

    Monday 30th January 2017 - This morning, UK Power prices have also increased, again following colder weather forecasts set for next week. We are seeing a blocking high at the moment, which is stopping the normal westerly winds the UK receives for milder weather, which means we could be set for a cold period until this shifts. We can also see that Coal prices have increased, which could be impacting further back on the curve.

    Tuesday 31st January 2017 - UK Powers main driver is also temperature. As we see the curve rise across the board, weather continues its cold runs for next week and into week 7, pushing the prompt upwards. UK Power is also gaining support from rising European fuels as it takes direction from the many rises on the markets.

  • Market Comments February

    Wednesday 1st February 2017 - UK Power prices firmed a touch on Tuesday following the NBP gas market and feeling the impact from colder weather forecasts. Weather runs forecasting longer range in the UK expect below seasonal normal temperatures into the back end of February and March helping to lift the front of the curve. Wind generation climbed on Tuesday but prompt prices didn’t ease as wind levels are expected to outturn low on Wednesday. A firmer European fuels price especially Coal, helped to lift the curve, which faced late support from a weakening Sterling.

    Thursday 2nd February 2017 - A mixed day on the UK Power front as prompt contracts held value and eased throughout the day but near curve contracts for front month touched upwards. Revised colder weather forecasts continue to drive the heating demand upwards for the back end of February and March lifting prices, however, prompt prices eased as temperatures for this week remain above seasonal norm. Wind generation is expected to be significantly higher on Thursday which helped to keep prompt Power prices stable. A strengthening Coal price continues to help lift power prices in the UK.

    Friday 3rd February 2017 - The UK power prices climbed at the front end yesterday as colder weather revisions raised confidence in a colder back end to February. London is expected to sit up to 4°C below seasonal norms from next week onwards, lifting heating demand in the region. The UK power market was also supported by strength in corresponding NBP Gas market and gains in Coal. Further out on the curve, late weakness in GBP ensured the back end held on to early gains despite some afternoon weakness in Oil. On the prompt, wind generation is expected to remain high on Friday with over 8,000MW available through this method on Thursday

    Monday 6th February - UK Power has moved much in the direction of UK Gas this morning, with less drastic changes. Coal prices have dropped slightly this morning, as Oil remains static. The front end of the curve, like NB P, is taking impact from slightly warmer weather runs this morning, whilst the back end has made minimal changes.

    Tuesday 7th February 2017 - This morning, UK Gas prices have reduced. This is following warmer weather runs overnight, which now see temperatures on or around seasonal normal for February. This in turn is reducing demand and pushing prompt prices down. We are also seeing a strengthening of the dollar, which is reducing Oil and Coal prices and impacting the rest of the curve.

    Wednesday 8th February 2017 - UK Power has also decreased this morning, as it continues to move in line with NBP prices. NBP prices are falling as a new LNG cargo is due to arrive in the UK later this month, easing any supply worries and filtering through to the Power curve. The front end of the curve is moving more dramatically as warmer weather runs emerge this morning causing demand forecasts to fall.

    Thursday 9th February 2017 - UK Power has also risen this morning as it moves taking direction from rising NBP prices. Slightly colder weather is the main driver for NBP, however for Power rising Oil and Coal prices are creating the impact across the curve. In the US there was an unexpected draw in US Gasoline stores, in turn pushing Oil prices upwards and impacting other European fuel prices.

    Friday 10th February 2017 - UK Power has mostly dropped this morning, with some random gains throughout the curve. It is mostly following the trends shown for NBP and most other European gas or Electricity curves. With Oil prices rising, this has limited the movements on the back end, and could continue to impact throughout the day.

    Monday 13th February 2017 - UK Power has risen this morning. Following rises over the weekend in line with the NBP. Rather than correcting itself like some of the UK curve has done this morning, we have seen UK Power rise across the board, as the Eggborough Unit is unavailable due to commercial reasons.

    Tuesday 14th February 2017 - UK Power has opened with mixed direction. Temperatures are remaining above seasonal norm for the rest of the week; however weather runs have come in this morning determining the back end of February to decrease back down to cold temperature levels. Weather is set to remain the main driver. UK Power still also remains following NBP prices very closely.

    Wednesday 15th February 2017 - UK Power prices have followed UK Gas this morning, posting losses. On the front end we are starting to see some upwards shifts following the colder forecast releases. However the back end seems to be reacting to recovering Oil prices and increasing wind generation levels for the next couple of weeks.

    Thursday 16th February 2017 - UK Power is closely following NBP, and is posting gains. Similarly to Gas, the curve is reacting to the news about Rough storage, colder weather forecasts and rising Coal prices – as China (world’s biggest Coal producer) still continues to consider output restrictions to avoid a glut. Oil prices continue to move sideways today, as high US inventories continue to counteract OPEC cuts

    Friday 17th February 2017 - UK Power once again is closely following the NBP direction. Upward revisions to temperatures, drops in EUA carbon prices and dropping Oil prices have also impacted the curve. Wind levels are also at a good level, which is good for Power prices and will be pulling them downwards.

    Monday 20th February 2017 - UK Power has dropped on the prompt; however the rest of the curve is showing gains. This is as Power continues to move in line with NBP Gas and follow Oil gains. Coal prices are also increasing, as we see China have decided not to import Coal from North Korea.

    Tuesday 21st February 2017 - UK Power is lacking direction this morning, with the curve moving across the board increasing and decreasing. Impact is seen from rising Oil and Coal prices. Coal prices are rising following supply disruption concerns for China’s coal market, as Beijing announced that is has banned coal exports from North Korea.

    Wednesday 22nd February 2017 - UK Power prices have also dropped this morning. Reasoning for this are long range warmer weather forecasts in this morning’s weather run, and high wind levels which are expected to last until at least weekend. Power is still moving closely to Gas, however this morning the fall is not as large as NBP

    Thursday 23rd February 2017 - UK Power has also increased this morning, as it continues to move in the same direction to Gas. Other factors include wind level uncertainty and expectations levels could possibly drop and colder weather Tues/Weds next week. However much like Gas the main driver today is the pipeline explosion news.

    Friday 24th February 2017 - UK Power has again followed the NBP’s trend and decreased following yesterday’s overdone rises. As Oil prices fall, so does NBP and in turn so does Power. Currently the OPEC cuts used to stabilise sharply dropping Oil prices are being undermined by rises in US stockpiles which are causing prices still to fall.

    Monday 27th February 2017 - UK Power this morning has risen, with support from many other continental Power markets. Temperatures are expected to go colder towards the end of next week, and the start of next week. Oil prices have also risen this morning, on the back of supply cuts; however gains are limited by increasing US inventories.

    Tuesday 28th February 2017 - UK Power prices have also increased this morning, following yesterday’s drops. It continues to move inline and reflective of UK Gas. As temperatures are set to decrease, we see stronger increases towards the front end of the curve. Wind levels are also returning to around seasonal normal levels rather than the high levels we have been seeing.

  • Market Comments March

    Wednesday 1st March 2017 - UK Power is again taking direction from UK Gas, following Centrica’s announcement, as Gas declined, so did Power. Temperatures are also seen to return to above or around seasonal normal in the coming weeks; however we are set to see weaker supply contribution from renewables which could impact prices going forward.

    Thursday 2nd March 2017 - UK Power like it has been doing for weeks, continues to mimic movements on the UK Gas market. Rallying fuel prices yesterday, generated a strong buying interest in the UK Power market, shifting prices upwards. This seems to have continued this morning, but with warmer temps this may not last all day.

    Friday 3rd March 2017 - UK Power has also fallen across the board this morning, as it continues to move in line with NBP. Following milder weather forecasts, stronger wind levels and a slightly weaker Coal price, this is providing the pressure for UK Power prices to decline.

    Monday 6th March 2017 - UK Power prices have continued to follow the trend of UK Gas this morning. Warmer weather forecasts for the coming 2 weeks, and better than originally predicted wind levels are adding pressure the curve and pulling prices down.

    Tuesday 7th March 2017 - It was a mixed day in the UK power market as near curve contracts lost value, however further dated contracts climbed on the back of late bullish fundamentals. The front month April-17 contract was pressured with falling NBP gas contracts, a boost to the supply outlook with two LNG cargoes set to arrive by 18th March and a warmer revision to upcoming temperatures. Wind generation was expected to rise by 1GW to around 3GW on Tuesday, providing further losses. In the afternoon, significant weakness on GBP and a late surge in Oil and API Coal helped support prices further.

    Wednesday 8th March 2017 - UK Power is again following UK Gas. Losses are shown across the whole curve, as weaker Coal, EUA and Oil prices add weight to an already declining price. Wind levels have also been revised upwards from last week’s drops, to show seasonal normal over the weekend.

    Thursday 9th March 2017 - UK Power is experiencing pressure from NBP declines. Temperatures are set to further increase, which in turn will reduce demand; this affects the front end of the curve and shows the most losses. Drops in Oil prices, drops in EUA prices and static Coal prices have also adding weight on the curve.

    Friday 10th March 2017 - UK Power is still following Gas, again relatively static today following this week’s bearish trend. Main drivers are still milder weather forecasts for the upcoming weeks – this is turn reduces demand and weighs heavily on curves and weaker fuel prices all around. With Oil and Coal both declining as well this again supports the bearish sentiment.

    Monday 13th March 2017 - UK Power prices are showing even more reduction that UK Gas. This is all following a winning formula of warm weather forecasts for the coming weeks, good wind levels, gradual increases in solar levels and low Oil prices seen for the last few days as Oil prices fall to a 3 month low.

    Tuesday 14th March 2017 - UK Power has increased in line with Gas this morning. The weakening of the Pound is causing increases across the curve as Brexit becomes a more real event. Coal prices have also strengthened this morning, as there are drops in Chinese Coal output.

    Wednesday 15th March 2017 - UK Power is mirroring Gas this morning, also showing minimal increases across the curve. Rises on UK Gas and rising Oil following unexpected news are the main drivers for this morning, however drops in Coal priced and lower demand have limited potential rises.

    Thursday 16th March 2017 - UK Power has also increased this morning, as it again moved in line with NBP prices. As European fuels become firmer they add support to the Power curve. This along with rising Oil prices and rising Coal prices creates bullish sentiment for the UK Power market.

    Friday 17th March 2017 - UK Power has followed the same trend as UK Gas, moving extremely minimally. Temperatures are set to decrease next week, possibly below seasonal normal. We see Oil prices decline this morning following yesterday’s increases, this along with weakness in API2 Coal is creating the slight decreases on the curve.

    Monday 20th March 2017 - UK Power is moving in mixed directions this morning. Any downwards movement are following weakness in the natural Gas market. Minor increases are following weaker wind supply forecasts from Wednesday this week, and a stronger Power demand beginning this week.

    Tuesday 21st March 2017 - UK Power as usual is moving in the same direction as Gas, and it moving upwards this morning. Oil prices have risen following OPEC’s plans to extend current production cuts which is impacting the curve. Along with drops in wind power generation levels and drops in Solar production the curve has increased across the board.

    Wednesday 22nd March 2017 - UK Power has posted losses across the curve this morning, as it continues to move in line with NBP. Temperatures are expected to return to above or around seasonal normal levels again for April and wind levels are expected to start increasing which are both pushing prices down. UK Power is also taking direction from most European fuel prices which are falling this morning.

    Thursday 23rd March 2017 - UK Power has again followed its NBP equivalents this morning and moved very minimally. Rising temperatures similarly have affected the front end of the curve, as is pushes heating demand down. As Oil stays around the same level this morning, and Coal rises slightly there is minimum impact to the curve, if anything slight upward corrections from yesterday.

    Friday 24th March 2017 - UK Power has moved relatively steady this morning, in comparison to NBP. Following warmer weather forecasts and predictions of better wind generation and renewables this has weighed on the curve. However slight rises on the Coal prices and stability for Oil seem to have limited potential downturn.

    Monday 27th March 2017 - UK Power has shown losses from Friday morning, however some rises from Friday afternoon, as Coal prices increase this morning. Prices are falling as Oil shows a decline following rises in US drilling activity. Warmer weather is also set for the coming weeks, reducing demand.

    Tuesday 28th March 2017 - UK Power DA this morning has reduced on the back of warm weather forecasts and reduction in Coal prices. The rest of the curve has risen, following NBP Gas prices which rise on the back of a short UK system and rises in Oil.

    Wednesday 29th March 2017 - Power prices have also increased this morning, taking trend from NBP. DA prices have dropped following increased wind power generation and weaker demand; however the rest of the curve has shown increases. This is moving in line with rising Oil and Coal prices following disruption in Libya.

    Thursday 30th March 2017 - UK Power has also moved up this morning, following the same trend as UK Gas. As Oil and Coal prices rise, it adds support to the curve and pushes prices upwards. Wind levels are expected to keep system prices balanced over the coming days, which hasn’t impacted the curve today.

    Friday 31st March 2017 - UK Power prices have risen this morning as Oil and Coal prices continue to rise. Oil rises on the back of the rumoured continuation of the production cuts, whilst Coal prices rise over supply disruptions. The Pound is beginning to recover against the Euro, which is possibly limiting any gains being made.

  • Market Comments April

    Monday 3rd April 2017 - The whole UK Power curve has posted gains this morning, main drivers being rising Oil and Coal prices. Oil prices have risen as concern over the Global supply glut and extending productions cuts rages on and Coal rises following South African cuts. However warmer temperatures resulting in reducing demand, may be limiting gains potential

    Tuesday 4th April 2017 - Dutch and French Gas have both risen across the curve this morning. Like the UK, taking direction from rising Coal prices following supply disruption – Aurizon have indicated that Coal rail lines will be out of service for up to 5 weeks. Rising demand and short systems have also supported the Gas prices, resulting in increases across the board.

    Wednesday 5th April 2017 - UK Power is following the same trend as NBP, and taking no direction. As Oil prices rise considerably this morning following outages, this creates a bullish sentiment, but with warmer temperatures and growth in solar capacity, any potential rises are limited.

    Thursday 6th April 2017 - UK Power prices have opened moving in mixed directions this morning. Day Ahead prices remain strong from yesterday as they trended with rising European fuels. Oil prices have fallen following rises in US stock levels, and Coal prices are remaining around similar levels as news drops off about the outages caused by Cyclone Debbie.

    Friday 7th April 2017 - The UK Power curve followed the upwards trend of its UK counterpart as bullish Oil is supporting the NBP. The Prompt has gained weight from the expectation of strong solar production levels due for this weekend and mild temperatures, and next week wind generation levels are expected to increase. Further gains this morning have been compounded by strong opens to EU ETS Emission Contracts and Coal; API2 and Newcastle are being supported by production disruptions following Cyclone Debbie.

    Monday 10th April 2017 - UK Power prices have also dropped this morning, in line with many other European fuels prices. Wind Power generation is set to increase for April, easing the prompt. Also Coal prices have declined over the weekend due to weakening Chinese demand, pulling prices down, and Oil has remained at the same sort of levels as last week.

    Tuesday 11th April 2017 - UK Power is also decreasing this morning. NBP prices falling adds weight to the curve, however increases in wind power generation levels and solar are also pushing Power prices down across the curve. Coal prices have fallen again today, however Oil prices are remaining fairly static as geopolitical tensions continue to work against increases in US stocks limiting downward movement.

    Wednesday 12th April 2017 - UK Power has also risen today, as it moves in line with NBP trends. Similar to the Gas prices, Oil is affecting the prices. As Oil prices rise following political tension and expectations that cuts will be extended officially in May, this in turn pushes Power prices up. Also less wind and solar generation levels are adding support to already rising prices.

    Thursday 13th April 2017 - UK Power has also increased slightly this morning. Again following the Rough announcement, the market increased and has continued to follow this trend this morning. There are also weaker points on the curve as Oil has dropped off slightly on the back of rising US production.

    Tuesday 18th April 2017 - UK Power prices have increased this morning, as again they follow similar movements to NBP Gas. Following decreases in temperatures and falling wind generation levels, this is adding support to the curve. Coal prices have remained relatively flat this morning, and Oil has fallen as US production levels increase, this limiting rises.

    Wednesday 19th April 2017 - UK Power has also risen this morning. This morning, along with taking support from firmer European Gas prices, expectations of colder temperatures in the coming week are pushing prices upwards. Demand is expected to increase, and with already low wind generation forecasts, this is creating a bullish effect. Also similarly to Gas, the moving currency following the snap election news and decisions is something to look out for with the Power market.

    Thursday 20th April 2017 - UK Power prices have dropped this morning, experiencing lighter losses than what has been seen on the NBP. Oil prices steep declines yesterday have played a major part in pushing prices down, as US inventories experience a less than expected decline for the week. This along with appreciation of the Pound following the election decision weighed on prices across the whole curve.

    Friday 21st April 2017 - UK Power has moved extremely similarly to the NBP. Cold temperatures are increasing demand this week, however as they are set to rise towards the end of April this is allowing drops. Wind generation levels have also increased today, along with declining Oil and Coal prices also adding weight to the curve.

    Monday 24th April 2017 - UK Power had increased majority this morning, however we can a decline for Day-Ahead. Again like NBP, the main driver for this has been the weakening of the Pound against the Euro. There has been a strengthening of 1.16% overnight for the Euro, making it more expensive to purchase anything GBP related. DA prices have declined as Oil prices fall, and temperature forecasts increase for the start of May.

    Tuesday 25th April 2017 - UK Power has also dropped this morning, as its tracks the movements of NBP Gas. Pressure on the curve is caused by falling Oil and Coal prices. We are also seeing strong wind generations levels – which relieves pressure from other generations, and adds weight to prices. The DA price has risen on the back of cold weather today, however temperatures are set to get warmer from the start of May, limiting any rise.

    Wednesday 26th April 2017 - Following the NBP Gas trend, UK Power has posted decreases across the curve this morning. With weakness in many energy markets, this is weighing on the curve and pulling prices down. As Oil and Coal prices decline, some losses may be limited by the extension of the Hartlepool Nuclear Plant outage, which is expected to carry on into the beginning of May.

    Thursday 27th April 2017 - UK Power’s trend is very closely following Gas, as it posts increases across the curve. Coal prices have risen this morning, and this teamed with a weaker Pound is increasing the cost of imports to the UK and in turn pushing prices up across the curve. As with NBP Gas, cooler weather forecasts and an uncertain outlook for the next 2 weeks is also adding pressure to the front of the curve.

    Friday 28th April 2017 - As usual, UK Power prices are following the trend of NBP Gas and moving upwards across the curve. Very low wind levels are limiting Wind Power Generation and forcing other methods to be used, increasing prices. Summer nuclear maintenance schedules have been announced, as plants plan to go offline throughout the period. Oil and Coal prices are also rising. Oil as OPEC becomes firmer on whether they will issue another production cut, and Coal on the renewed Queensland supply disruptions.

  • Market Comments May

    Tuesday 2nd May 2017 - Again UK Power is following the trend of UK Gas prices. This teamed with low wind and solar levels, and strong Continental Power levels is pushing prices up. Most European fuels are rising this morning, adding support to the curve. Strength in demand, as we see a drop in number of LNG arrivals. As temperatures return to around seasonal normal, wind levels have reduced, pushing prices up across the whole curve.

    Wednesday 3rd May 2017 - UK Power has followed the trend of NBP, reacting to tightness on the Gas curve. Similar to Gas prices have increased slightly. Temperatures set above seasonal normal for the weekend, however returning to cool for the next 2 weeks following. Heating demand levels still marginally above seasonal normal levels, with Wind Generation levels dropping too – both adding support. However longer daylight hours are extending Solar Generation.

    Thursday 4th May 2017 - As usual, drops in UK Gas are affecting UK Power prices, as we see a drop in prices across the curve. Following strong gains on the Power curve in previous sessions, drops in European Fuel markets have allowed a downward correction to the curve. Oil, Coal and Emissions prices have fallen this morning, giving direction for the UK Power market. Today, we are seeing expectations for stronger Wind Power generations and weaker demand.

    Friday 5th May 2017 - UK Power prices have fallen this morning, taking direction from weakness in the NBP and Coal markets. API2 Coal swaps have weakened slightly this morning, adding weight to the curve and pushing prices down. NBP prices are falling on the back of sharp losses in the Oil market, in turn providing a trend for UK Power prices to follow. We see lower demand forecasts for today, along with slightly higher solar levels and low wind generation levels.

    Monday 8th May 2017 - UK Power has opened mixed this morning, minimal movements across the curve barring DA which rose significantly. Low wind levels for this week have pushed the DA price up significantly. Again UK Power is following the trend of NBP, as it softens on the back of warmer weather expectations, however is limited by falling supply within the UK. Coal prices have remained stable this morning, as we see Oil rising from Fridays sharp losses this morning – however still not as high as Oil prices have been.

    Tuesday 9th May 2017 - UK Power prices have similarly moved very minimally, mimicking movements in European fuels. Wind levels are again looking incredibly low. Heating demand is set to decline over the next week, as temperatures increase in the UK over the weekend. Unplanned IFA outages along with 3 efficient Gas plants having issues are adding support to the curve across the board pushing prices up slightly.

    Wednesday 10th May 2017 - UK Power has risen this morning, as it takes direction from rising UK Gas prices. Carbon prices have also risen this morning, providing support for the curve. There is also a small French nuclear delay today; however wind levels are improving which is limiting any potential rises.

    Thursday 11th May 2017 - Similar to UK Gas, Power has remained at very similar levels to yesterdays close. Wind and Solar levels have increased today, allowing better generation and pushing prices down. Warmer temperatures (expected to reach around 22°C in London) are decreasing Power demand and adding weight to the curve. Rising Oil prices, could cap any potential losses. As we see a fall in US inventories, and Saudi Arabia begin the cuts to Asia – around a 7 million barrel reduction expected for June.

    Friday 12th May 2017 - UK Power prices are tracking Gas prices and have followed the downward trend. Front end prices are falling considerably, as wind generation has increased for this weekend. The wind outlook for next week however has been revised down. Due to increased cloud cover over next week, solar forecasts have been revised down. Potentially limiting any decreases. Weakness in Coal and Carbon prices, has also added weight to the curve as other fuels see decreases.

    Monday 15th May 2017 - This morning, UK Power prices have found strength from other rising Fuel prices. UK Gas has increased this morning, on the back of a short system and rising Oil, pushing UK Power prices upwards as they follow the trend. Oil prices have increased this morning, as Saudi Arabia and Russia extend their output cuts to March 2018 in order to try and control the global supply glut. We see downward revisions to wind generation for the rest of the week, with a generally low outlook for next week too.

    Tuesday 16th May 2017 - UK Power has opened mixed this morning. At the front end we have seen some increases, and towards the back end there is minimal movement. Both Oil and Coal prices have increased this morning. Oil on the back of yesterday’s production cut announcement, this is adding support to the curve. Low wind outlook – expected to fall dramatically tomorrow, and higher cloud cover leading to lower solar generation. Firmer Gas prices, and slow LNG send out are adding weight to the near curve and increasing prices.

    Wednesday 17th May 2017 - UK Power prices have moved similarly to the NBP. Lacking direction across the curve. Weak wind generation is expected over the next couple of days, however is expected to increase slightly next week. Increased cloud cover is expected for next week, reducing Solar output forecasts, and along with higher consumption adding support to prices. Coal prices have risen this morning, on the back of Oil price increases, a weaker Dollar and Chinese future movements.

    Thursday 18th May 2017 - UK Power prices are moving in mixed directions this morning. Solar levels are set to increase over the weekend, as is wind generation. This is adding downward pressure to the front of the curve. As temperatures stay at a milder level today in the UK, this has a positive effect on prices. A depreciating Pound against the Euro is providing support for the Gas market, in turn affecting Power as the cost of commodity imports from the continent increases.

    Friday 19th May 2017 - Prices have opened a touch higher on the far curve of the UK power market this morning taking direction from stronger Coal, Oil & Emissions prices. Closer in on the front end of the curve prices have softened with upcoming forecasts. As we move into next week, solar radiation and wind generation is expected to be high on Monday/ Tuesday with consumption expected to fall. This is linked to increasing temperatures in the UK with overnight weather reports forecasting an above seasonal normal spell for next week. Temperatures in London could reach as high as 25°C.

    Monday 22nd May 2017 - Prices in the UK power market have eased as we open the new week with prices trending the losses witnessed on the NBP gas market. Over the weekend, forecast temperatures have been revised upwards which has reduced the gas demand for this week. There could be some increased demand for cooling as temperatures could hit 30°C at the weekend. Prices on the prompt have been eased as wind output has picked up this morning with CCGT demand falling by 15mcm. As we move into next week, wind output is expected to fall, however we are seeing high levels of solar radiation forecast.

    Tuesday 23rd May 2017 - The UK Power curve has opened with mixed price movement on Tuesday with the front of the curve easing slightly, however the back remains supported. At the prompt, an increasing level of solar radiation and warmer temperatures helped pressure the curve with prices falling as demand for CCGT reduced. Further out, a strengthening Coal and EU Emission prices helped filter gains through to the Power market. Temperatures in London and the UK are expected to increase towards 30°C this weekend which could lift the demand for cooling and air conditioning.

    Wednesday 24th May 2017 - UK Power prices continue to climb as a number of fundamentals continue to support prices. The front end of the power curve remains strong as the warmer forecasts in the UK look set to increase the cooling demand in the region. There has been strength in the NBP gas market on Wednesday morning due to a short system and lower Norwegian flows which has provided a further boost to power prices. Further out increases in Coal, EU ETS Emissions and Brent continue to support the curve.

    Thursday 25th May 2017 - The UK power prices continue to drift up slowly on Thursday, opening slightly higher than Wednesday’s close. At the front of the curve, warm weather, significantly above seasonal norm continues to lift the cooling demand. The wind generation and solar levels are sitting above seasonal average however, from Monday next week these are expected to fall which means more expensive electricity generation methods will be required. Further out, strength in EU Emission Carbon and Oil prices have supported the back end.

    Friday 26th May 2017 - The front of the UK Power curve continues to hold some strength with prices gaining slightly this morning. The front of the curve and prompt contracts are currently being impacted by the significantly warmer weather lifting the cooling demand for the region. Strength in Carbon prices continue to help lift the back of the curve and a weakening pound also contributed to further dated prices ticking upwards.

    Tuesday 30th May 2017 - UK Power prices have also increased this morning, mainly on the back of falling wind generation. Wind levels are expected to fall and remain weak this week, however from next week onwards, we can expect a stronger outlook. Cloudier weather is expected next week, forcing solar forecasts to decrease. Increasing temperatures are limiting rises and could cause potential losses later in the week.

    Wednesday 31st May 2017 - UK Power prices have been in mixed directions this morning, as they react to juxtaposing factors. There is uncertainty around Solar forecasts this week, and wind generation levels remain low. They are however expected to increase next week. Coal prices increased on the back of a lack of liquidity yesterday, in turn they pushed each other’s prices up. Today Coal prices have flattened. Oil prices have decreased this morning as US production and Libyan output have increased, squashing any gains made following the OPEC extension plans.

  • Market Comments June

    Thursday 1st June 2017 - UK Power has again been relatively mixed this morning, however minimal changes. Little change in the wind and solar forecast, slightly better forecasts for wind generation next week, and solar expected to fall. Coal prices have softened slightly this morning, offering weight to the curve. Limiting any losses, is Oil, as it rises to a 3 week high after uncertainty surrounding whether the US will pull out of a global climate accord, threatening to increase Oil demand.

    Friday 2nd June 2017 - UK Power prices have moved in different directions this morning, posting losses and gains across the board. Wind and Solar generation are both expected to increase over the weekend, and next week we should see higher wind generation and lower solar, as cloud coverage increases. UK Power prices will be taking some downward momentum from decreasing NBP prices, as they react to a healthy system and falling Oil prices. Coal prices have stabilised again this morning, remaining at similar levels to yesterday, offering no real impact to this morning’s prices.

    Monday 5th June 2017 - UK Power prices have also increased this morning. As with most countries, reacting to the news of Gulf countries cutting ties with Qatar, and rising Coal prices. Coal prices have increased again this morning, as it still reacts to the news of the US exiting the Paris Climate Change agreement. As some Middle Eastern countries vow to cut their ties with Qatar, uncertainty surrounding this decision has impacted the curve as uncertainty starts to filter through to prices. We can see strong wind levels for this week, however this is expected to drop off over the weekend.

    Tuesday 6th June 2017 - UK Power prices have remained at the same sort of levels seen yesterday afternoon. Again following the UK Gas trend. High wind generation and lower solar is expected for the remainder of this week, with this swapping places next week as mid next week wind generation is expected to be extremely weak. Power burn forecasts have fallen for today and tomorrow, whereas next week should see greater as wind decreases. Oil prices have fallen this morning on the back of the Middle East rift, Coal however has risen this morning, limiting any losses.

    Wednesday 7th June 2017 - UK Power prices have followed the same trend as NBP today. Staying at similar levels to yesterday. Wind levels have been revised stronger over the next couple of days, with levels over the weekend especially picking up. Lower wind forecasts for the start of next week have been pushed back coinciding with stronger Solar the beginning of next week. Higher wind levels, teamed with warmer weather forecasts this week for the UK have helped ease prices on the prompt and limit any potential rises. Oil prices have increased this morning, as the rift in the Middle East continues to cause problems along with falling US Crude Inventories. However the continuing global supply glut limits rises.

    Thursday 8th June 2017 - UK Power prices have remained at similar levels to yesterday’s prices. Posting a slightly higher rise for the front of the curve. Wind generation is expected to continue its strong run until mid-next week, when it is expected to get progressively weaker. As cloud coverage decreases and high pressure comes in, solar is expected to increase from mid next week, as wind levels wind down. As with NBP prices, the fall in Oil prices has limited any drastic rises that could potentially be made by rising demand and a short system.

    Friday 9th June 2017 - This morning, UK Power is taking support from a rising NBP market and weakening of the pound. NBP Prices have risen this morning, on the back of a weakening pound against the Euro following the General Election and supply concerns – as 2 LNG cargoes expected at St Fergus diverted yesterday. Coal prices have risen this morning, as the feud between Poland and Europe continues. As the funding base shrinks, Poland is considering a change in direction, adding strength to prices. Oil prices have continued to fall this morning, on the back of system oversupply pulling prices down. Again similar to the UK this could limit rises from other bullish drivers.

    Monday 12th June 2017 - UK Power prices have fallen this morning, however DA has increased significantly, down to weak wind. Wind generation levels are very low this morning, however forecasts for this week have increased in comparison to Friday, as low pressure affects northern regions. Solar production is relatively strong this week, adding a bearish factor to the curve. UK temperatures are cool today, but temperatures are set to increase this week, with temperatures staying above seasonal normal, in turn reducing demand.

    Tuesday 13th June 2017 - UK Power prices have fallen on the front end this morning, and have shown increases towards the back end of the curve. The remainder of the working week, forecasts look to show expected weak wind generation. This is set to change on Friday, as we should see some increases. Oil levels have increased this morning, offering support to the curve. Saudi Arabia have hinted that they will make significant supply cuts to Asia in a statement released.

    Wednesday 14th June 2017 - UK Power prices have also fallen this morning. Falling Power prices this morning are supported by, decreases in Oil and EUA prices, as this offers weight to the curve. Warm weather in the UK for the next 10 days, has weighed down the front end of the curve.

    Thursday 15th June 2017 - UK Power prices have also fallen this morning, similarly following the trend set by decreases in demand. Weather in the UK, is set to be very warm this weekend and into early next week, this warm period has potential to last for the foreseeable, prompting demand levels to fall. Wind levels are falling slightly today, as Solar output is set to increase due to high pressure. Wind however is expected to pick up again towards the end of next week.

    Friday 16th June 2017 - UK Power prices have followed the NBP’s trend and have marginally increased. This is down to a short system in the UK and decreases in wind generation. Over the weekend, wind generation levels are expected to decrease and remain weak in comparison to recent levels, Solar is expected to increase over the weekend. Oil prices have increased this morning, adding support to the curves. This happens as export halts take place in Libya.

    Monday 19th June 2017 - UK Power has also increased this morning, as is follows the trend set by NBP Gas. Wind levels are extremely weak today, however it is set to pick up throughout the weak. Moving the opposite to wind, Solar levels remain strong today, however they are set to fall off towards the end of the week, when wind is set to increase. Oil prices have fallen slightly this morning, as figures for US drilling rise, potentially adding to the already impactful global supply glut.

    Tuesday 20th June 2017 - UK Power prices have also opened with increases this morning, reacting to the increases in Gas following the Rough announcement. Following extremely weak wind generation levels this week, wind is expected to increase towards the end of the week, particularly Friday and Saturday. It is then expected to stabilise next week. UK Gas prices have risen this morning on the back of a short UK system (a lot shorter than we have been seeing in the last couple of weeks), and news surrounding the permanent closure of the UK’s Rough storage site. Possibly limiting rises this morning, is the fall in Oil prices. Prices continue to fall as consistent signs of rising supply undermine any OPEC attempts to limit supply.

    Wednesday 21st June 2017 - UK Power prices have also risen this morning, taking trend from rising UK Gas prices. UK Gas prices are rising on the back of a short NBP system, adding pressure to Power prices and pushing prices upwards. Expectations for wind generation to become very strong on Friday and Saturday are still set, with solar levels expected to reduce from tomorrow. Power demand has been high this week and will continue today, due to hot conditions and air con demand. This should dip next week as fresher temperatures come in for the UK.

    Thursday 22nd June 2017 - Cooler weather in the UK for the coming week reduced the air con demand and helped prompt contracts ease on Thursday morning. Increased cloud cover has reduced the solar generation levels for Thursday. Expectation of strong wind generation over the course of the weekend before retreating back to average levels into next week. Weakness in the Coal & Oil markets on Wednesday helped pressure the curve with Oil holding its lowest price for 10 months.

    Friday 23rd June 2017 - Similarly, UK Power prices are on the rise this morning, reacting to cooler weather forecasts for the coming week. UK weather forecasts have expected it to be much fresher next week, with increasingly unsettled conditions. Oil prices have increased this morning, downward correcting for the extreme losses we have seen throughout this week. As UK Gas prices have risen this morning, due to the cool weather outlooks and a short UK system, this has added support to the Power curve.

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